Ken at HomeLend USA

09/03/2026

🏠 MORTGAGE MARKET UPDATE — THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3, 2026 🏠

TREASURY YIELDS ARE FINALLY EASING — BUT TOMORROW’S JOBS REPORT COULD CHANGE EVERYTHING

Good morning! After several difficult days for the bond market, we're getting a little relief this morning. The 10-year Treasury has backed down to roughly 4.77%, after recently reaching about 4.82%. Lower oil prices and slightly softer expectations for another Fed hike are helping bonds stabilize.

📉 10-YEAR TREASURY: MOVING LOWER

The 10-year Treasury is around 4.77% this morning.

That's an improvement from this week's highs, but let's keep it in perspective: 4.77% is still elevated and continues to create pressure for mortgage rates.

10-Year Treasury ↓ = generally better for mortgage rates.
10-Year Treasury ↑ = generally more mortgage-rate pressure.

🏦 MORTGAGE RATES: A LITTLE RELIEF TODAY

Today's mortgage-rate measures vary depending on methodology. Zillow marketplace data show the average 30-year fixed purchase rate around 6.69%, down about 5 basis points today, while another national measure has the 30-year conventional average around 6.81%, roughly 14 basis points higher than a week ago.

So my read is:

Mortgage pricing is getting a small breather today, but we're still worse than we were a week ago.

Your actual rate depends on credit, loan type, down payment, property, points and other factors.

📈 BOND MARKET: BETTER — BUT STILL NERVOUS

The bond market is stabilizing after the recent global selloff.

Lower oil prices are helping, and the 10-year Treasury has moved down from its recent highs. But investors remain concerned about inflation, heavy government borrowing and whether the economy's long-term "neutral" interest rate may be higher than it used to be.

I would describe today's bond tone as:

Improving, but cautious.

📊 STOCK MARKET: CAUTIOUS THIS MORNING

U.S. stock futures are mostly lower this morning:

S&P 500 futures: about -0.1%
Nasdaq futures: about -0.2%
Dow futures: roughly flat

Oil remains a major concern despite easing today. U.S. crude has risen about 11% this week amid escalating Middle East tensions, keeping inflation risk front and center.

🏛️ FED WATCH: WALLER OPENS THE DOOR TO HOLDING RATES STEADY

This morning, Christopher Waller said he's leaning toward keeping rates unchanged at the September meeting if inflation continues cooling.

But he also made clear that a hotter inflation report could still justify another increase.

That's important after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's more aggressive inflation message at Jackson Hole.

The Federal Reserve isn't necessarily united on what should happen next.

And remember:

The Fed does NOT directly set your 30-year mortgage rate.

Today's decline in the 10-year Treasury is helping mortgage pricing even though the Fed hasn't changed its benchmark rate.

🔥 TOMORROW COULD BE A BIG MORTGAGE-RATE DAY

Friday brings the August employment report.

This could be one of the most important economic reports of the month for mortgage rates.

Here's what I'll be watching:

Weaker jobs + softer wages → Bonds could rally → Treasury yields could fall → Mortgage rates could improve.

Strong jobs + stronger wages → Bonds could sell off → Treasury yields could rise → Mortgage rates could worsen.

If you're closing soon and floating your rate, tomorrow morning deserves your attention.

🏡 FOR HOMEBUYERS

Today's slight improvement is welcome—but don't build your home-buying strategy around trying to predict tomorrow's jobs report.

Instead:

✔️ Get fully pre-approved.
✔️ Know your comfortable monthly payment.
✔️ Ask about down-payment assistance.
✔️ Explore seller concessions.
✔️ Consider a temporary rate buydown when appropriate.

Higher rates aren't fun, but they can also mean fewer competing buyers and more negotiating leverage.

If rates eventually drop significantly, more buyers may come back.

🏠 FOR HOMEOWNERS

If you already have a 3% or 4% mortgage, don't automatically refinance it away.

But if you're carrying credit cards at 20%–30%, need money for improvements or want to improve monthly cash flow, look at your total financial picture.

Sometimes keeping the low-rate first mortgage and using home equity makes more sense.

Sometimes consolidating everything works better.

Run the numbers before making the decision.

🤝 FOR REALTORS

Tomorrow's jobs report could change buyer payments quickly.

Before writing offers this weekend, have your lender update the buyer's payment and purchasing power.

A pre-approval from three weeks ago may still be valid, but the comfortable payment could be different.

📌 MY MORTGAGE BROKER TAKE

We're finally getting a little relief:

10-year Treasury: ~4.77% and falling 🟢
Mortgage pricing: slightly better today 🟢
Bond market: stabilizing 🟢
Oil/inflation risk: still elevated 🔴
Fed: divided on September 🔶
Tomorrow: BIG jobs report 👀

But 4.77% on the 10-year Treasury is still too high for me to become bullish on mortgage rates.

I want to see it move back below 4.70%, and ultimately challenge 4.60%.

Tomorrow's jobs report could help—or it could send us right back in the other direction.

Don't try to perfectly time the market. Get prepared, know your payment, understand your options and make your move when the home and the numbers make sense.

📞 Buying • Refinancing • Home Equity • First-Time Buyers • Down-Payment Assistance • Credit Options

Ken Paszkiewicz
Mortgage Broker | HomeLendUSA
📱 248-417-1423
📧 [email protected]
NMLS #138254

Today's September 3 market context: AP — Treasury yields, stocks and oil this morning | Today's mortgage-rate report.

Send a message to learn more

09/02/2026

🏠 MORTGAGE MARKET UPDATE — WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 2, 2026 🏠

THE 10-YEAR TREASURY BREAKS ABOVE 4.80% — MORTGAGE RATES HIT A ONE-YEAR HIGH

Good morning! Unfortunately, the bond market is giving mortgage borrowers another rough morning. The global bond selloff has continued, oil remains near $95 a barrel, and expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase are growing.

📈 10-YEAR TREASURY: ABOVE 4.80%

The benchmark 10-year Treasury has climbed to approximately 4.80%–4.81% this morning, its highest level since early 2025. The 30-year Treasury is around 5.28%–5.29%.

That's clearly the wrong direction for mortgages.

10-Year Treasury ↑ = more mortgage-rate pressure.
10-Year Treasury ↓ = generally better mortgage pricing.

🏦 MORTGAGE RATE PRESSURE: HIGHER

Today's average 30-year conventional mortgage is approximately 6.80%, up from about 6.68% one week ago according to Mortgage Research Center data. That puts the national average at a one-year high.

Actual rates can be better or worse depending on credit, down payment, loan program, property type, points and lender.

But the trend this week is unmistakable:

Treasuries ↑
Mortgage bonds under pressure
Mortgage rates ↑

📉 BOND MARKET: WEAK

This isn't simply a U.S. mortgage story. We're seeing a global bond selloff.

Japanese 10-year yields have moved above 3% for the first time since 1996, while European government yields have also climbed sharply. Rising global yields can make U.S. Treasuries less attractive unless their yields rise too.

Add oil around $95 per barrel, persistent inflation concerns and heavy government borrowing, and bond investors are demanding higher yields.

📊 STOCK MARKET: HIGHER YIELDS ARE BECOMING A PROBLEM

Wall Street is watching this closely. Rising Treasury yields increase borrowing costs throughout the economy and can put pressure on stock valuations, particularly technology companies.

Nasdaq futures were down roughly 0.2% this morning, while broader futures were mixed.

The S&P 500 remains near record territory, but Reuters reports investors increasingly see rising Treasury yields as a potential obstacle for stocks as earnings season winds down.

🏛️ FED & INFLATION WATCH

The Federal Reserve has kept its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75%, with its next meeting scheduled for September 15–16.

But the market has become considerably more concerned about another rate increase.

Current market pricing puts the probability of a September Fed hike near 70%, as inflation remains elevated and higher energy prices threaten to keep it that way.

Here's the important mortgage lesson:

The Fed hasn't raised rates yet—and mortgage rates have already moved higher.

That's because the Fed doesn't directly set 30-year mortgage rates. The bond market anticipates what comes next.

👀 NEXT BIG MARKET MOVER: EMPLOYMENT

Employment data now becomes extremely important.

The market will be watching upcoming labor reports for evidence that the economy is slowing.

Weaker jobs/wages → potentially good for bonds and mortgage rates.

Strong jobs/wages → potentially higher Fed-hike expectations and more mortgage-rate pressure.

🏡 FOR HOMEBUYERS

I'm not going to tell buyers that today's rate environment is great.

It's challenging.

But higher rates can also mean fewer competing buyers and potentially more negotiating power with sellers.

So instead of asking:

“Should I wait until rates drop?”

Ask:

“Can I comfortably afford the right home at today's payment?”

If the answer is yes, let's look at seller concessions, down-payment assistance, temporary buydowns and the loan program that gives you the best overall structure.

If rates eventually improve, refinancing may become an option.

🏠 FOR HOMEOWNERS

If you already have a 3% or 4% mortgage, protect it unless the numbers give you a compelling reason to change it.

But if you're carrying credit cards at 20%–30%, don't compare only the mortgage rates.

Compare your total monthly debt payment and total interest cost.

Sometimes a refinance makes sense. Sometimes a home-equity option makes more sense. Sometimes leaving everything alone is the right answer.

Run the numbers before making the decision.

🤝 FOR REALTORS

With rates moving this quickly, please have your buyers' financing updated before writing the offer.

A buyer's pre-approval may still be valid, but their comfortable payment and purchasing power can change when rates move ⅛%–¼%.

This is when Realtors and mortgage professionals need to communicate before the offer—not after it.

📌 MY MORTGAGE BROKER TAKE

Here's where we stand this morning:

10-year Treasury: ~4.80%–4.81% 🔴
30-year mortgage average: ~6.80% 🔴
Bond market: weak 🔴
Oil: near $95 🔴
Inflation pressure: elevated 🔴
Fed-hike expectations: rising 🔴

There's no reason to sugar-coat it: this is a difficult setup for lower mortgage rates.

What would change my outlook?

I want to see the 10-year Treasury get back below 4.70%, then start challenging 4.60%.

Until that happens, expect mortgage rates to remain volatile.

Don't try to guess the perfect bottom. Get prepared, know your payment, understand your options and make your decision when the home and the numbers make sense.

📞 Buying • Refinancing • Home Equity • First-Time Buyers • Down-Payment Assistance • Credit Options

Ken Paszkiewicz
Mortgage Broker | HomeLendUSA
📱 248-417-1423
📧 [email protected]
NMLS #138254

Today's September 2 market coverage: Reuters — Why rising Treasury yields matter | Today's mortgage-rate report.

09/01/2026

Think you’re not ready to buy a home? You might be surprised!

Sometimes the first step isn’t buying a house — it’s finding out what’s possible.

09/01/2026

Stay on top of your credit report: check for errors, monitor your score, understand what impacts it (like payment history, credit utilization, account age), and review your report regularly to protect against identity theft. Knowledge is financial power.

08/31/2026

🏠 MORTGAGE MARKET UPDATE — MONDAY, AUGUST 31, 2026 🏠

10-YEAR TREASURY EASES A LITTLE — BUT OIL, INFLATION & THE FED ARE KEEPING PRESSURE ON MORTGAGE RATES

Good morning! We’re starting the week with the bond market relatively calm after Friday’s Jackson Hole message, but there’s still plenty working against a significant mortgage-rate decline.

📉 10-YEAR TREASURY: SLIGHTLY LOWER

The 10-year Treasury is around 4.72% this morning, down slightly from Friday’s close near 4.73%.

That’s a small improvement, but 4.72% is still elevated.

10-Year Treasury ↓ = generally better for mortgage rates.

10-Year Treasury ↑ = generally more mortgage-rate pressure.

🏦 MORTGAGE RATES: STILL HOLDING IN THE MID-6% RANGE

National averages vary by source. Zillow marketplace data show a 30-year fixed purchase rate around 6.55% today, while Mortgage Research Center data put the average around 6.71%.

The exact national average isn’t what matters most. Your actual rate depends on credit, down payment, loan program, property type, points and other factors.

My read this morning: mortgage-rate pressure is neutral to slightly higher, with no major breakout in either direction yet.

📊 BOND MARKET: CAUTIOUS

Bond investors are balancing several competing forces.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole comments reinforced that inflation remains too high. Meanwhile, renewed U.S.-Iran tensions have pushed oil sharply higher again, adding another potential inflation problem.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also addressed concerns about government-debt markets today, noting that elevated energy prices and inflation pressure have contributed to the recent increase in long-term Treasury yields.

📉 STOCK MARKET: SLIGHTLY LOWER TO START THE WEEK

Stock futures are down roughly 0.2% across the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq this morning. Despite today’s cautious start, August has been strong: the Dow is up about 2.1%, S&P 500 about 3%, and Nasdaq roughly 4.1% for the month.

For mortgages, though, I’m much more interested in what the bond market is telling us.

🏛️ FED & INFLATION WATCH

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75% in July, with its next meeting scheduled for September 15–16.

After Jackson Hole, markets are taking the possibility of another rate increase more seriously because inflation is still running above the Fed’s 2% target.

And this week brings another major test:

FRIDAY’S JOBS REPORT.

Markets currently expect roughly 50,000 jobs to be added in August after July posted a loss.

A weaker report could help bonds and mortgage rates.

A stronger-than-expected report—especially with higher wages—could push Treasury yields higher again.

🏡 FOR HOMEBUYERS

Don’t wait for a headline saying mortgage rates have finally dropped.

Get prepared before that happens.

✔️ Get fully pre-approved.
✔️ Know your comfortable monthly payment.
✔️ Ask about down-payment assistance.
✔️ Explore seller concessions.
✔️ Consider temporary rate buydowns when appropriate.

And remember: lower rates can bring more buyers back into the market.

Sometimes today’s slightly higher rate with negotiating leverage is a better opportunity than tomorrow’s lower rate with five competing offers.

🏠 FOR HOMEOWNERS

If you have a low first-mortgage rate, don’t automatically refinance it away.

But if you’re carrying credit cards at 20%–30%, have renovation expenses or need better monthly cash flow, look at the entire financial picture.

Mortgage + credit cards + other debt = the number that really matters.

Sometimes refinancing works. Sometimes keeping the first mortgage and using home equity works better.

Run the numbers first.

🤝 FOR REALTORS

This week I’d contact the buyers who keep saying:

“I’m waiting for rates to come down.”

Try this instead:

“Rather than trying to predict rates, let’s update your numbers and determine what payment works for you today.”

Then get your mortgage professional involved before you find the house.

📌 MY MORTGAGE BROKER TAKE

Here’s where we start the week:

10-year Treasury: about 4.72%.
Mortgage rates: mid-6% range nationally.
Bond market: cautious.
Oil: sharply higher.
Inflation: still the Fed’s biggest concern.
Stocks: slightly lower this morning.
Next major market mover: Friday’s jobs report.

I’m still looking for the 10-year Treasury to break convincingly below 4.60% and stay there before becoming more optimistic about a meaningful mortgage-rate decline.

Until then, expect volatility.

Don’t try to perfectly time the bottom. Get prepared, know your payment, understand your options and buy when the home and the numbers make sense.

📞 Buying • Refinancing • Home Equity • First-Time Buyers • Down-Payment Assistance • Credit Options

Ken Paszkiewicz
Mortgage Broker | HomeLendUSA
📱 248-417-1423
📧 [email protected]
NMLS #138254

Today’s fresh market context: Reuters — U.S. Treasury and bond-market update, August 31 and today’s mortgage-rate report.

Send a message to learn more

08/30/2026

Did you know I could help you potentially save an average of $10,662* over the life of your home loan? Give me a call and let's explore making homeownership more affordable for you.

08/29/2026

Summer isn't over, and neither is your chance to buy a home! There's still time to make your move before the season ends. Message me to explore your options.

08/28/2026

The answer is obvious. No matter what you need help with, I'm here for you every step of the way on your homeownership journey. Reach out today!

08/27/2026

🏠 MORTGAGE MARKET UPDATE — THURSDAY, AUGUST 27, 2026 🏠

TREASURY YIELDS ARE EASING — BUT STICKY INFLATION IS KEEPING MORTGAGE RATES FROM BREAKING LOWER

Good morning! We have a slightly better tone in the bond market this morning, but inflation remains the obstacle standing between today's mortgage rates and a meaningful move lower.

📉 10-YEAR TREASURY: A LITTLE BETTER

The 10-year Treasury was around 4.65% in early trading, down modestly as oil prices eased. That's better than the 4.70%+ levels we've recently seen, but it's still elevated enough to keep mortgage rates under pressure.

For homebuyers, remember:

10-Year Treasury ↓ = generally positive for mortgage rates.
10-Year Treasury ↑ = generally more mortgage-rate pressure.

🏦 MORTGAGE RATES: STILL STUCK IN THE MID-6% RANGE

Today's national mortgage measures vary depending on methodology. Zillow's lender marketplace showed the 30-year fixed purchase rate around 6.57%, while Mortgage Research Center data put the conventional 30-year average around 6.67%.

That's why I don't recommend shopping for a mortgage based solely on an internet headline rate. Credit, down payment, loan program, property type, points and the individual lender all matter.

My read today: mortgage-rate pressure is neutral to slightly improving, but we're still waiting for a real breakout.

📈 BOND MARKET: CAUTIOUS

Yesterday's inflation report didn't give bonds what they needed for a major rally.

July headline PCE inflation was 3.7% year over year, slightly hotter than expected, while core PCE remained at 3.3%. Both remain well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

So although Treasury yields are easing this morning, the bond market isn't convinced the inflation fight is finished.

📊 STOCK MARKET: NVIDIA IS HELPING

Global stocks are relatively steady today after Nvidia reported another strong quarter and forecast. Technology shares received a boost, although investors remain cautious ahead of the Fed's Jackson Hole message.

That's an interesting split:

Stocks remain optimistic about growth.
Bonds remain nervous about inflation.

For mortgages, I'm paying much more attention to the second one.

🏛️ FED WATCH: JACKSON HOLE STARTS TODAY

The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium begins today, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is under pressure to explain how the Fed intends to bring inflation back toward 2%.

The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75% in July, and sticky inflation strengthens the argument for staying cautious rather than quickly easing policy.

And I'll keep emphasizing this:

The Fed does NOT directly set mortgage rates.

Mortgage rates respond heavily to inflation expectations, Treasury yields and mortgage-backed securities—often before the Fed does anything.

🏡 FOR HOMEBUYERS

Don't wait for a 5% mortgage rate headline before getting prepared.

Get pre-approved now.

Know the monthly payment you're comfortable with. Ask about down-payment assistance, seller concessions and temporary rate buydowns.

And remember something that's easy to overlook:

If mortgage rates make a meaningful move lower, more buyers could come back into the market.

You may gain purchasing power from a lower rate but lose negotiating power because you're competing against more buyers.

🏠 FOR HOMEOWNERS

If you have a low first-mortgage rate, I'm certainly not suggesting everyone refinance it away.

But if you're carrying credit cards at 20%–30%, need money for improvements or want to improve monthly cash flow, it's worth looking at your entire financial picture.

Sometimes a refinance works. Sometimes a home-equity option works better. Sometimes keeping everything exactly as it is wins.

Run the numbers first.

🤝 FOR REALTORS

This is a good time to reconnect with buyers who keep telling you they're waiting for rates.

Try:

“Mortgage rates are still in the mid-6% range, but Treasury yields have backed off their recent highs. Let's update your payment and see what you can comfortably afford today.”

Then let's run the actual financing options.

📌 MY MORTGAGE BROKER TAKE

Here's where we stand this morning:

10-year Treasury: around 4.65% and slightly lower.
Mortgage rates: roughly mid-6% nationally.
Bond market: cautious.
Inflation: still too high.
Stocks: supported by strong tech earnings.
Fed: Jackson Hole takes center stage.

The decline in Treasury yields is encouraging, but I still want to see the 10-year break lower and stay lower before calling this a sustained mortgage-rate rally.

Don't try to perfectly time the market. Get prepared, know your payment, understand your options, and when the right house and the right numbers come together, be ready to move.

📞 Buying • Refinancing • Home Equity • First-Time Buyers • Down-Payment Assistance • Credit Options

Ken Paszkiewicz
Mortgage Broker | HomeLendUSA
📱 248-417-1423
📧 [email protected]
NMLS #138254

Send a message to learn more