09/25/2026
Interest rates ended the week higher.
Oil prices may not be to blame this week. WTI fell ~8% and the relationship between yields and oil price diverged. The Bloomberg Commodity index also fell nearly 1% this week. Market based inflation expectations have remained muted of late. This latest move higher in interest rates is a move higher in real yields. Real yields can rise for several reasons including larger Treasury issuance, fiscal deficits, and reduced foreign demand. Often, when we see spikes in interest rates like this, we find out months later that some other sovereign was selling their treasury holdings, but this is just speculation from me. With the U.S debt growing by $1 trillion every 5 months, it’s not difficult to see that pushing yields higher either. October currently holds approximately a 2/3 chance of a 25 bps rate hike.