08/11/2026
Hello all!
The August Businomics Report is out, and included below.
There’s an interesting mix of information, but I think the gist of it is that we’re finally seeing what most of us have been feeling- that the economy is a “little” soft. And many of you would argue that I should take out “a little”… and I probably wouldn’t try to correct you on that. 😊
A couple things that caught my eye- on retail sales growth, not surprisingly, we see that the cost of gas shows the greatest change over the last 12 months. But, even with things becoming less & less affordable, the 2nd highest category was sporting goods. Yes- you read that right. So while things are tough for many, it looks like consumers are still not willing to cut back on their discretionary spending just yet; perhaps that’s also a reason why credit card debt is at an all time high right now. I’ll let you draw your own conclusions on that. 😉
And while the 2nd set of charts shows inflation as having shot up considerably (mostly due to oil prices), and that the experts’ prediction between now & December is 1-2 more rate hikes, I can’t help but think that they may be off on that prediction, in light of recent reports that have come out recently. Last weeks' job market reports came out showing much softer numbers (you’ll see in the chart below for Oregon, it’s not layoff that’s the problem- it’s a lack of hiring… no jobs!), GDP (gross domestic product) is down a bit, and the CPI report (Consumer Price Index report that shows what consumers are spending) that comes out tomrorow is forecasted to show that inflation is actually easing.
The expectation is Headline CPI up only .1% on a monthly basis, and core CPI (which removes food & energy from the calculation) should only be up .2% month over month. When you replace August 2025’s numbers with these, that would cause the Headline CPI to drop from 3.5% down to 3.4%, and Core CPI from 2.6% down to 2.5%. While the headline number is still high, we know that most of that is due to oil prices. When we take that out, along with food, a core reading of 2.5% is extremely tame- and not that far from the Fed’s goal of 2.0%.
I guess we’ll see what Wednesday ends up showing, but I’m optimistic that we’ll see something close to these numbers, which is great. It would also establish a trend for the past 3 months that shows the core at or under the Fed’s 2.0% target. Seems like it would be a hard argument to suggest hiking rates if these kinds of reports (CPI, GDP, & jobs/employment) continue this way. Let’s hope so!
At any rate, read on & enjoy!
And as always, if you’d like a personalized quote for either a
purchase or refinance in any state (except New York), please don’t hesitate to let me know!
Have a great week!
~Karin 😊
If I were considering purchasing/refinancing a home, I would....
Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days...
Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...
Lock if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...
Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...
Karin Hammer- Mortgage Lending Specialist
Edge Home Finance, LLC NMLS #264278
https://edgehomefinance.com/team-member/karin-hammer/
