06/20/2024
(posted by Adam Harding)
If you work at NVIDIA and have stock, I'm begging you to spend some time unpacking a very simple word:
Enough.
Specifically, how much is enough?
I recall a conversation I had back with someone in 2021. The person had about $12m in Netflix stock and a $15m net worth.
As I typically do in early prospect discussions, I asked them what they wanted their life to look like and they said things like "feel financially free", "sleep well at night", "spend more time volunteering" and "buy a cabin and spend more time there with our two boys (ages 3 & 5)".
I said, "cool, you can have all of those things right now, but we need to reconsider your concentrated stock position." They pushed back -- after all, look how far they'd come from that single stock. I get it.
(For the record, my position has nothing to do with the Netflix -- it could have been any stock and I likely would've said the same thing.)
Over the next few months, NFLX dropped 75% before they elected to diversify.
The difference between a $6m and $15m net worth is pretty substantial where they live. Don't get me wrong, $6m is still a lot, but you're definitely not sleeping as well and a cabin isn't too sensible.
As of today, NFLX is almost back to it's pre-crash levels and they can heed that advice or not (they didn't become a client), but one thing is for certain:
Those kids are now 6 and 8 and those three years aren't coming back.
Remember why you're investing and see if you can align your strategy with that.
..And if you need some tactics to wrap your mind around diversifying your NVDA position, here are some mental gymnastics:
Tactic #1: If you have $X worth of stock, ask yourself "If I had $X in cash and not stock, would I feel comfortable placing a buy order today for $X?"... Aside from capital gains taxes, electing to hold a security is akin to buying it. However, folks tend to hold things while having far less conviction than they'd need in order to buy the same things.
Tactic #2: Consider hedging both your fear of loss and your fear of missing out. You do this by taking a meaningful diversifying measure to protect against getting blindsided while still keeping a position which helps you feel like you're part of the move you've participated in up to this point.
Tactic #3: I took two Ubers in LA last week -- both drivers asked me what I thought of NVDA and told me their son/brother/nephew or whatever had suggested they buy too... Ask yourself "are the buyers at these levels the early, sophisticated investors or those who are anchoring their opinions to recent performance?".... Think of the person on the other side of the transaction and then choose who you want to be.
Look, at the end of the day this isn't about future performance of an investment, it's about the future layout of your life and making sure the vision board gets realized.
If you have enough, pat yourself on the back and make some moves to protect it.