06/18/2026
With markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday on Friday, Thursday marked the end of the trading week. Considering the sell-off on Wednesday afternoon, the week had the potential to end on an uncomfortably volatile note. Instead, bonds pushed back nicely in the other direction--even though MBS didn't recoup as much of their losses as 10yr Treasuries. True, there is some sense of foreboding in the inability of 10yr yields to move below 4.42%, but all told, the week was actually surprisingly calm after factoring in Thursday's gains.
Since March 1st, the Iran war has been the primary reason for movement and volatility in the bond market. Pre-war motivations were woefully muted. That changed a bit with the jobs report two weeks ago and it changed again with this week's Fed announcement. Thankfully, the damage was quickly reversed...