Joy Widle - Senior Loan Officer Nmls #290735

08/20/2025

Some important mortgage rate projections below:

What Rate Would Get Buyers Moving Again?
The magic number most buyers seem to be watching for is 6%. And it’s not just a psychological benchmark; it has real impact. A recent report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says if rates reach 6%:

· 5.5 million more households could afford the median-priced home

· And roughly 550,000 people would buy a home within 12 to 18 months

That’s a lot of pent-up demand just waiting for the green light. And if you look back at the graph above, you’ll see Fannie Mae thinks we’ll hit that threshold next year. That raises an important question: Does it really make sense to wait for lower rates?

Because here’s the tradeoff. If you’re waiting for 6%, you need to realize a lot of other people are too. And when rates do continue to inch down and more buyers jump into the market all at once, you could face more competition, fewer choices, and higher home prices. NAR explains it like this:

“Home buyers wishing for lower mortgage interest rates may eventually get their wish, but for now, they’ll have to decide whether it’s better to wait or jump into the market.”



Consider the unique window that exists right now:

· Inventory is up = more choices

· Price growth has slowed down = more realistic pricing

· You may have more room to negotiate = you could get a better deal

These are all opportunities that will go away if rates fall and demand surges. That’s why NAR says:

“Buyers who are holding out for lower mortgage rates may be missing a key opening in the market.”

06/25/2025

This little note was sent to me giving thanks for my work in getting a loan pre-approval. Thanks for the kind words!

03/27/2025

Here is some interesting figures and graphs on the market.

03/13/2025

Rates are coming down faster than predicted, a much needed sight for the market.

02/03/2025

07/18/2024

Traders are now 100% certain the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by September.

There are now 95.3% odds that the Fed’s target range for the federal funds rate, its key rate, will be lowered by a quarter percentage point to 5% to 5.25% in September from the current 5.25% to 5.50%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

10/31/2022

It's always good to know your facts!🏡

10/06/2022

Weekly Market Update

Pending home sales weaken as high interest rates worsen affordability:
According to NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, pending home sales fell 2.0% to 88.4 in August at the national level. Compared to the same month of last year, pending transactions dwindled by 24.2% nationally and 35.4% in California. Rates have skyrocketed more than 1% point in the last six weeks, crunching affordability further and deeply cutting into contract signings. Pending sales will continue to decline from last year as long as rates remain elevated, and that will likely be the case until inflation starts cooling off.

August brings brief respite for new-home sales decline:
A short reprieve in the rise of rates combined with price discounts provided a temporary boost to new-home sales in August, which jumped 28.8% over July 2022 to a 685K-unit annual pace. August’s rebound came after two months of consecutive declines. Sales of new single-family homes are only 0.1% below the August 2021’s level of 686k but are still running 14.1% slower than last year on a year-to-date basis. Sales improved in every region in August, with the West jumping 27.5% from last month, but dipping 24.0% from a year ago. While rates might have provided a brief window of opportunity in late July/early August for buyers to move forward with a purchase, more builders are turning to rate buy-downs and price-discounting to boost sales as rates started rising sharply in recent weeks.

Mortgage demand declines as interest rates keep climbing: Applications for both purchase and refinance decreased last week as mortgage rates moved up to multi-year high following another aggressive policy measure from the Fed to bring down inflation. Additionally, ongoing uncertainty about the impact of the Fed’s reduction of its MBS and Treasury holdings is adding upward pressure on mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.70% as of September 29, the highest level since mid-2007 and was more than a percentage point higher than six weeks ago. With higher rates and economic uncertainty weighing on the decisions to buy, more buyers have opted to finance their home purchases with adjustable-rate mortgages (ARM), which generally have lower rates. The market share of ARM has grown to 10% of applications and reached nearly 20% of dollar volume last week.

09/29/2022

Weekly Market Update 9/29/22

The FOMC makes fifth-straight increase to the federal funds rate: As expected, the Fed raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 75 bps on Wednesday of last week. The jump marked the third consecutive increase of this magnitude and pushed the benchmark range to 3%-3.25%—the highest since early 2008. The FOMC also announced that they foresee increasing their target rate as high as 4.6% in 2023 to combat inflation, which means the series of big rate hikes are expected to continue for the remainder or the year and into early next year.

Mortgage demand rises despite sharply higher interest rates: According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), mortgage application volume increased last week for the first time in six weeks but remained well below last year’s levels with purchase applications running 30% behind 2021 and refinance activity down 83%. The latest gain on mortgage applications, however, was largely the result of weak Labor Day applications the previous week. Overall, applications remain below pre-pandemic levels and are expected to remain soft as buyers adjust to higher rates. According to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.29% as of September 22, when only the week prior it had averaged 6.02%.

Homebuilder sentiment dips further – especially in the West:
The measurement of homebuilder sentiment (HMI), slid for the ninth consecutive month in September by dipping three points to 46 – slid 10 points in the West to 41. Builders blame elevated constructions costs, in addition to rising rates for their increased pessimism. As mortgage rates have risen, an already pricey housing market has become even less affordable and has resulted in less buyer traffic. Consequently, a greater share of builders have been forced to provide incentives like mortgage rate buydowns, free amenities, and price reductions to bolster sales. In fact, nearly a quarter of them reported lowering prices in the most recent data.

Housing starts rebound in August but permits decline sharply:
Total housing starts surprised to the upside in August by increasing 12.2% over the month to a 1.575-million-unit pace. Single-family starts rose 3.4% while multifamily starts increased 28%. Improvements in supply chain conditions likely increased building material availability during the month, allowing builders to move forward with projects already in the pipeline. However, the skid in builder sentiment mirrors the trend decline in new home construction as building permits, a forward-looking indicator that leads housing starts by a couple of months, also plummeted 10% in August. The drop in permits reflects builders tapping the brakes on new construction in response to weaker demand and rising financing costs.

09/29/2022