Progressive Mortgage & Real Estate Solutions

12/08/2023

Well let's see if they are correct!!

With mortgage rates finally easing, many California cities are expected to see home sales rebound significantly next year, according to a new forecast from Realtor.com. Five metro areas are predict…

11/11/2023

I believe we already know this!

While overall mortgage delinquencies are holding steady, there's been an uptick of mortgages in arrears among the highest value loans, the CMHC reports.

11/06/2023

Well it was down and now it's up!

Over just two years, mortgage rates have surged from 3% to 8%, which can add nearly $1,000 to the monthly payment on a median priced home. The supply of homes for sale has hit a record low, leaving many potential homebuyers anxious over when the best time will be to buy a home. CNBC’s Diana Olick ...

08/07/2023

We continue to encounter volatility surrounding economic data, especially when it comes to inflation & labor. There’s now a growing divide at the Fed, with some who think it’s time to pause their rate hiking (tightening) cycle, while others such as the Fed’s New York Bank president Williams think we’ll “... need to keep a restrictive stance for some time.”



July’s rate hike brought the fed funds rate to a targe range of ~5.25% to 5.5%, the highest in 22 years. Fed officials most recent projections as of June, showed two more rate hikes penciled this year, including the one we just had in July. It remains to be seen what we’re in for, as we have our next reading on inflation (consumer Price index) coming this TH morning followed by consumer sentiment FR.



We’re likely in for more volatility as investors bet on future policy being driven by a Fed looking at lagged data. The good news is, although rates remain elevated there’s a growing opportunity down the road when rates start dropping. Not only will there likely be more inventory, there will also be more attractive cash out/debt consolidation opportunities. Top partners are setting expectations with their clients that the purchase or cash out loan they’re getting now, will likely be short term and to plan on a R/T refi in the next year or two setting themselves up for future business.



We’re still a ways off from the Fed’s 2% inflation target, and time will tell if they maintain the same goal of 2% or that becomes revised. Hopefully we’ll see CPI come down as forecasted this TH, or even lower.

07/27/2023

The Federal Reserve unanimously voted to raise interest rates yesterday by the expected .25bps. This marks the 11th rate increase in the Fed Funds rate since March of 2022, bringing the rate to ~5.50%. This is the highest level since 2001. The 25bps result was all but a foregone conclusion, so we didn’t see much movement until 2:30, when a hush fell over the crowd as Jerome Powell took the podium. Among some of the shocking revelations (or maybe, not so shocking): Not exactly shocking, as we’ve heard this all before from Powell. No news was good news as far as bonds were concerned yesterday. Powell kept his cards close to his chest per the usual: When asked about the possibility of further hikes in September, he basically found 50 different ways to say “we might, we might not…”. He went on to reiterate, The Fed remains data dependent (we get two major jobs reports and two PCE and CPI inflation readings before the September decision). Aside from that, his lips are sealed: Now What?
Where we are now is purely an inflation fight. Bloomberg economists came up with 3 scenarios that I’ll share here (highly paraphrased to keep is short):
Mild Recession – Bloomberg and the Fed believe this is the most likely scenario in late 2023 or early 2024. Inflation slows / Unemployment Rises
Inflation Stuck at 3% - Inflation stuck at just above 3% after mid-2024 and labor market remains tight. Could push rates higher for longer.
Fed Stop and Go – In this scenario, it’s a worst case because the Fed Funds rate isn’t high enough, soon enough and we see this saga play out over a longer period of time.
Outside of Bloomberg, most estimates are the Fed will cut rates sometime in 2024. Even the Mortgage Bankers Association has estimates that mortgage rates will fall over the next year giving solace to those that transact today to know that a low-cost refinance could be in their future.
So far today, bonds are in the Red due to jobless claims coming in lower than forecast at 221k vs 235k and GDP came in stronger than expected at 2.4% vs the 1.8% forecast. These data points are moving the opposite direction the Fed wants to see. Tomorrow, we get the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation being PCE, hopefully the data is friendly and shows inflation cooling.

07/14/2023

This is how we do it !!!

05/29/2023

According to this article, realtors are leaving in droves!!

Tens of thousands of realtors are giving up on the profession after their ranks swelled earlier in the pandemic when the housing market was soaring.

05/12/2023

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced they’d be adding a Debt-To-Income (DTI) Loan Level Pricing Adjustment (LLPA) on conventional loans starting this spring. This would have been the first time our industry saw charges for DTI. Fast forward to March, FHFA announced they would postpone the charge for months, to give the mortgage industry more time to implement their new price hit, and after so much backlash decided to do away with it altogether. You won’t hear me complaining

This annual report describes FHFA's accomplishments, as well as challenges, the agency faced in meeting the strategic goals and objectives during the past fiscal year.

05/10/2023

Very interesting!!! It should have been in demand as it was going up!!

Mortgage demand rose last week after interest rates pulled back slightly. Demand is still far lower, however, than it was a year ago.

05/04/2023

Another Happy Client!!

04/26/2023

Everyone should be aware of the changes that are coming!

If you're looking to buy a home, be aware that mortgages will change next month.

04/19/2023

Congratulations to our clients!!