10/13/2026
Political tailwinds have benefited the financial services sector during the first two years of President Trump's term. We doubt that a Democratic win in the midterm elections would create a headwind for the industry, but, it might not enjoy as strong of a following breeze as it has to this point. In this note, it is discussed how the political environment could change for financials. Some headline risk is expected, especially for the Global Systemically Important Banks (GSIBs). However, few changes in policy are expected, although it is acknowledged there is an increased risk for the credit card industry.
Also updated are thoughts on the state of the midterms. The base case remains: The House is likely to flip, while the Republicans still maintain a slim advantage to retain the Senate (an admittedly nonconsensus view). In the Senate, Democrats lead the polls in enough races to win, but several of the leads are within the margin of error. It has been questioned whether they will hold up.
Read more here: https://livesocial.seismic.com/afGw9Q