Wagner Investment & Retirement Advisors

12/25/2025

Merry Christmas everyone!!! May God bless you all!!

04/03/2025

The market was likely expecting 20% tariffs. Though the base tariff unveiled was 10%, the higher tariffs announced on America’s largest trading partners was more than expected. Though the market futures show a negative reaction, as of this writing, the futures are not below the last market low on March 31st. This will be a second test of the correction lows, and we will see if the market is bid up at the opening, or if we have to establish a new low before the recover can begin.

Many trading partner leaders overnight and this morning are talking about the need to negotiate rather than create a more intense trade war, which would be the better outcome. We believe the current pain will lead to better trade deals for America, and greatly enhance America’s manufacturing economy in time. Uncertainty did not end with yesterday’s tariff announcements, but may have established the baseline for better news in the coming days and weeks.

The market always overreacts to both good and bad news, and we are confident that the market will soon start to focus more on potential tax reform, deregulation and interest rate cuts. We anticipate continued short term volatility, but ultimately better market conditions the balance of the year. Remember the market has always recovered from short term drawdowns, corrections and even bear markets in a relative short period of time. By thinking longer term and beyond the current volatility, we believe investor patience will be rewarded.

Send a message to learn more

07/24/2024

The Stuart Best of the Block BBQ Cook-Off & Bike Night are looking for Vendors for Saturday, September 21st from 9:00am - 3:00pm.

Charities are The American Legion and the Cottage Pantry which serves Stuart, Menlo, Redfield and Dexter.

Please contact Gina at 515-523-2026.

P.S. Please forward this post to Vendors & Bike Clubs. It is much appreciated!

If you wish to Sponsor contact Russ.

02/20/2024

2024 Market Update information in the link below.

2024 is showing signs that things may be turning around for the markets and the economy. Check out our market outlook and what’s in store for 2024.

01/29/2024

Tax time can be stressful. The link below may be useful. Have a Blessed Day!

When you are ready to file 2023 taxes, be aware that some pretty significant changes have taken place that affect everything from what tax bracket you are in to tax breaks.

10/28/2023

I thought an update would be appropriate during the current market gyrations.

Fundamentals always win:
Right now the market is trading mostly on technicals as trading ranges are being breached and the S&P500 crossed back under its 200-day moving average. Fear of the Fed and how high rates will get and how long they will stay high is also creating concern about the economy's ability to continue to be resilient.

The fundamental facts are that the earnings recession is over and we are seeing both revenue and EPS growth this quarter. Forward S&P500 earnings expectations are going up and have risen to a point not seen in some time. The market will again focus on the fundamentals in time and strong hands will be rewarded.

Another sign we are near the end of the current corrective action is that normally the last stocks to rollover are the stocks that led the upside. With the weakness in mega caps this week, that could be a good sign that selling is near exhaustion. Stocks have not been moving significantly higher even on good earnings and those that miss are being punished. The big stocks become an easy source of funds when fear starts to rise.

We believe the Fed is likely done. If we are right, the market has been up 12% a year after a Fed tightening cycle is over. Valuations are becoming compelling again based on the recent weakness and the rise of earnings expectations going forward. The market is likely telling the Fed that they need to be done. In fact, rate cuts are expected as early as late in the first half of next year.

Corrections (10% from recent highs) are a normal process and are always recovered from in what is a relatively short period of time looking backwards. Making emotional decisions creates regret and high opportunity cost not too far out in time. The economy remains strong with GDP estimates for the 4th quarter north of 2%. It is very likely that the economy can continue to grow at the same time that inflation trends downward. That, along with the Fed pause and the potential for rate cuts not too far out on the calendar, could create real opportunity from current market levels.

Again, fundamentals always win given some time and the technical outlook will give way to the market focusing on fundamentals again soon. The fundamental outlook for stocks has been improving significantly. This is an opportunity where one has liquidity and not a reason to panic.

More to come as we soon enter two of the three best months of the year.

Have a great weekend!

Russ

Helping people preserve and protect their assets by structuring a predictable retirement income.

10/25/2023

Putting things into perspective is important in light of all the headlines we see. As I have always said, blood sells in the news. There isn't a "Good News", news station. The same holds true in the financial markets. Doom and gloom take the top headlines. I hope the following chart puts things into perspective.

Over the course of the last 100 years there have been wars, assassinations, natural disasters, terrorist attacks and a host of other dire events. Markets go up and they go down. In the end they have recovered. Negative world headlines are never pleasant but sticking to your plan is critical. Knee jerk reactions and emotional decisions are not advisable and typically lead to poor results.

Have a great day!

10/23/2023

Getting the Right Answers is Important

A major factor in achieving your financial goals is asking questions and listening to the answers. Read on for the answers to the most common 401(k) questions.

10/20/2023

https://bit.ly/46JJNp2

Inflation is causing many Americans to struggle and question their spending and saving. Unfortunately, many people are making this 401(k) mistake during inflation.

10/20/2023

Market Commentary
October 19, 2023

Last quarter, we mentioned that we were likely to see a pause in the market after stellar performance the first half of the year. We expected we may see some “backing & filling”, profit taking, and maybe even as much as a 10% correction. The market was weak in August, and September kept its position as historically the worst month of the year.

We mentioned in July that any corrective action in the 3rd quarter would be healthy even though we said there could be a couple of scary moments. The market was simply ahead of itself through July, and it is healthy longer term to come down a bit and build a better foundation to sustain the next move higher. Over the last three years, September has been down an average of 5-9% depending on the market index. In the last two years the 4th quarter gain averaged 7-11% again, depending on the market index. We expect good 4th quarter performance this year again.

Earnings to the rescue? After a period of earnings recession, earnings expectations are now improving. As a leading indicator, the market looks ahead and starts to price in the return to earnings growth. 3rd quarter earnings growth is expected to be as much as double digits. Obviously, higher earnings at the same valuation means higher stock prices. As of this writing, we are just starting the 3rd quarter earnings season; so far, a high percentage of companies are beating expectations both for revenue and earnings
per share. The next couple of weeks will be key as some of the large cap technology stocks will report earnings. We expect solid 3rd quarter earnings, which will likely promote a further increase in earnings expectations going forward.

There are a lot of headwinds for the market, but the underlying economic strength has helped the market to be resilient in the face of these concerns. The market has been resilient even in the face of the Israel/Hamas conflict, higher oil prices, strong economic data, which feeds interest rate concerns, and the acceleration of interest rates since May. Interest rates continue to be the primary driver of short term market direction. We would argue that it is not the current interest rate level, but rather the speed at which rates have risen. We believe the Fed is near or at the end of the interest rate tightening cycle and, in fact, the expectations are over 50% for rate cuts by July next year and over 70% by September. We are seeing the potential for slowing economic growth corresponding with a slow but continuing reduction in inflation, which should end the
higher interest rate cycle.

We expect solid 3rd quarter earnings, which will likely lead to better market returns into year end. When the S&P500 is up 15% through August, the market has averaged a 4% gain from there to the end of the year. A reminder from last quarter’s commentary as well, when the S&P500 has a first quarter gain following a down year (ten times), the average rest-of-the-year gain was 15.9% with positive returns every time. Also, the last 7 times the Fed cycle of raising rates ended, the market was up an average of 12% a year later.

Going forward, volatility will continue, but with patience, we believe that market will move higher as the interest rate tightening cycle ends, inflation continues to grind lower, earnings rebound, and the
economy continues to show growth in spite of all that it has had to endure. For now, good news is sometimes bad news as positive economic news causes short term interest rate concerns. We believe we are near a time when good news is again, good news.

It has been said that human beings make lousy investors. This is due to letting emotions control our decision making. We applaud your patience during short term market stress. Patience has always been rewarded as the market has recovered from market corrections, even bear markets, 100% of the time. The equity market has been the best asset class to meet and far exceed inflation over time.

There has been some concern about the performance of just a handful of stocks skewing index performance. This can also be viewed as a positive in that the majority of stocks are actually
undervalued based on historical price to earnings multiples (P/E Ratio). Also, the “magnificent seven”, among other names, are trading at less than a 50% P/E Ratio premium compared to the late 1990’s or the years of the “nifty fifty”. The excitement over AI may create a bubble in time, but we expect based on current valuations, that is years away. In the meantime, AI will likely boost business productivity significantly. This will improve earning and margins and likely lead to a much higher market over the next few years.

We will put out additional commentary as needed, and as always, we thank you for your trust and confidence.

Have a great day!
Russ Wagner

08/08/2023

The link below is an interview with the Chief Investment Officer of Royal Fund Management that I think you will find useful.

If you’re feeling uneasy about your investments, it’s helpful to zoom out and put things into perspective. Here are the key market factors you need to be aware of right now.

07/06/2023

Q3 Has Begun - Do You Have Your List?

Hope everyone had a safe Independence Day. Here we are, half way through 2023 already. Sweet corn is in, Fairs are starting and the thermometer is rising rapidly.

The article below will provide you with some worthwhile information. Have a great July!!

Q3 is the time to assess how you are doing financially and what you need to do differently. Use this Q3 personal finance to-do list to make sure you are on track.