02/07/2023
Talk of Housing Crash Not Supported by Appreciation Data:
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which is considered the “gold standard” for appreciation, showed home prices fell 0.6% from October to November but they were 7.7% higher when compared to November of 2021. This annual reading is a decline from the 9.2% gain reported in October.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) also released their House Price Index, which revealed that home prices fell 0.1% from October to November. While prices rose 8.2% from November 2021 to November 2022, this was a decline from the 9.8% annual increase reported in October. FHFA’s report measures home price appreciation on single-family homes with conforming loan amounts, which means it most likely represents lower-priced homes. It also differs from Case-Shiller’s data, in that it does not include cash buyers or jumbo loans.
What’s the bottom line? Home prices have been softening nationwide, but S&P DJI Managing Director Craig J. Lazzara noted that they are only down 3.6% from their peak last June. This is a far cry from a housing crash of 20% that some in the media are predicting.
In addition, home prices in Case-Shiller’s 10-City and 20-City Indexes are down 5% from their peak, showing that prices in these major cities are declining a bit more than they are in the nation overall. Prices in some of these locations were a bit overheated and are now giving back some gains. When removing those cities, prices around the rest of the country are flatter from the peak overall.
