01/27/2025
Lately, Lantern has been hearing customers wanting to wait to enroll in a new electricity rate as they've heard that the new administration will be causing energy prices to drop. However, more drilling doesn't mean electricity rates in Texas will go down. That's because, in Texas, the majority of power plants use natural gas to create electricity, and the price of natural gas has already been lower over the past few years than it's been in decades.
So what is driving high electricity rates here? Texas has been struggling to provide enough power to meet the current, let alone growing, demand. More drilling won't change that. More power generation will. There are plans for new generation, but that takes time to construct.
Furthermore, a new Executive Order entitled "Unleashing American Energy", while creating more profits for the industry, is expected to increase the domestic price of natural gas. Why? Section 8 of the order specifically directs the Secretary of Energy to "restart reviews of applications for approvals of liquified natural gas export projects as expeditiously as possible, consistent with applicable law." That means more demand for the product, and when there is higher demand, prices increase.
In the meantime, Texas has been identified as one of the top markets for crypto and data centers. ERCOT expects an extra 40,000 MW of load growth in the next five years. That’s huge. Right now, Texas can't handle the demand from it's current facilities, let alone the data centers coming our way.
Unless the new administration can magically create new generation feeding the ERCOT grid now, keep natural gas levels at current levels or lower, and/or convince Texas users to conserve energy, electricity rates are expected to increase, not drop. Weather will still influence rates seasonally, but the overall trend for electricity prices in Texas is up, not down.