Mathew Remington-Edward Jones-Financial Advisor

05/08/2023

This past week, markets were faced with a triple whammy of data: A Federal Reserve interest rate hike, ongoing turmoil in the banking system and a key jobs report for April. After raising interest rates by over 5.0% in just over a year, the Fed may finally be considering a pause in its rate-hiking campaign.

But the long and variable lags of interest rate increases may already be impacting the real economy. Nonetheless, while market volatility remains likely after a nice rally to the start of the year, we do see opportunities forming in both stocks and bonds as the extended bear market period yields to a potential bull market phase by year-end. Learn more on why we think this in our latest Weekly Market Wrap.

A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

05/01/2023

The old market adage "sell in May and go away" may have a ring to it, but is it actually valid advice? Unsurprisingly, the answer is no. First, rhymes are not a reliable basis for portfolio decisions. And second, while vacation season is approaching, disciplined investing is a year-round event.

Although the saying relates to the (antiquated) notion that the stock market is weaker during the summer, we don't think seasonal portfolio changes are sensible. Nevertheless, as we turn the calendar to May, recent market moves and historical perspective are informative, offering some additional information on the outlook this year. Check out our latest Weekly Market Wrap.

A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

04/24/2023

Amid a flurry of corporate earnings releases and somewhat lackluster market activity last week, an important milestone went largely unnoticed. It was about six months ago that the S&P 500 dipped below 3600 (down 25% from its high), core inflation accelerated to a 40-year high at 6.6% and 10-year yields spiked to 4.25%.

Since then, markets have been climbing the proverbial wall of worry. We use the six-month milestone as an opportunity to reflect on what continues to support the rebound, what does not and share our thoughts on what the path ahead might look like in our Weekly Market Wrap.

A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

04/17/2023

Markets have been intensely focused on inflation over the past year, with the central bank policy response serving as the primary influence on stock and bond performance. So last week's release of the March inflation data offered a much-anticipated look at the latest trend in consumer prices, with markets breathing a small sigh of relief as the data signaled inflation remains on its gradual downward path.

In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we evaluate the most recent inflation and consumer spending trends and share our take on the implications for interest rates and the economy ahead.

A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

04/10/2023

As we head into the second quarter of 2023, the strength in the market this year so far has been notable. The S&P 500 is up about 6.0%, while the investment-grade bond market is up a healthy 4.5%. Keep in mind, though, that recent gains in stocks were largely driven by valuation expansion, as price-to-earnings ratios climbed higher.

Despite these healthy market gains, the path forward in the near term may be challenging, especially as the economy weakens and potentially enters a mild recession. Nonetheless, for long-term investors, there may be opportunities forming in the months ahead, particularly as markets start to look past the economic slowdown toward a recovery period. Read more in our Weekly Market Wrap.

A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

04/03/2023

Despite a spike in volatility and an almost 8% pullback from the year's high, equities ended the month of March and the first quarter higher. In our Weekly Market Wrap, we share thoughts on what's behind the market's resilience and discuss the key factors we'll be monitoring that have the potential to shape the narrative in the months ahead.

A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

03/27/2023

In just over two weeks, the uncertainty in the U.S. regional and global banking system has notably altered the path of financial markets and potentially the path of the Federal Reserve. For the Fed, it now has a balancing act to navigate – supporting the banking system with liquidity on one hand and battling inflation with interest rate increases on the other. In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we discuss how we see opportunities forming in both the equity and bond space in the months ahead, beyond the more recent defensive posturing, as markets start to look past the economic downturn and toward a recovery ahead.

A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

03/20/2023

Pressures on the banking sector were front and center last week, with headlines taking markets on a roller coaster ride. Though anxieties could persist for a while, we don’t think they'll morph into a structural crisis. Nevertheless, the pressure on the sector serves as a reminder that restrictive policy tends to uncover vulnerabilities that are lurking in the financial system.

At the anniversary of the Fed's most aggressive rate-hiking campaign in four decades, the recent bank troubles could potentially mark a turning point in monetary policy. In our weekly market update, we offer some perspective on what last week's developments mean for interest rates, the economy and the markets.

A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

03/13/2023

Renewed stock market swings continued last week in response to the latest developments in the outlook for Fed policy and employment conditions. A two-day congressional testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell dampened the market's mood as he emphasized the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation, signaling additional rate hikes ahead. The February jobs report grabbed the spotlight by week's end as markets looked to the latest employment trends for clues on the health of the economy.

There's plenty of information to digest, but it's important for investors to keep an eye on the broader view. While this current bear market has lasted longer than average, stocks are holding on to solid gains so far in 2023. We think the maturity of this bear market should also be viewed as progress toward what we expect will be a more sustainable recovery as we progress through the year. In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we take a look at the current investment conditions, how they compare to history and what all of this tells us about the potential road ahead.

A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

03/06/2023

After a strong start to the year, market volatility seems to have returned. While we would expect market volatility to continue near-term, we are also watching for key inflection points that may indicate the early innings of a more sustainable rally ahead. We highlight three potential conditions that we believe would support better market returns longer term: 1) inflation moving lower, 2) the Federal Reserve pausing its rate-hiking cycle, and 3) earnings revisions bottoming.

A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

02/27/2023

After a strong and steady rally to start 2023, markets have seen a return of volatility of late, including a decline last week spurred by renewed concerns over further interest rate hikes from the Fed. This is not a new issue, but it has prompted markets to reevaluate expectations for the economy ahead. No two cycles are exactly the same, but we do think there are noteworthy similarities between current conditions and those in the 2001 bear market.

In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we discuss the parallels with the past and what they suggest about what might lay ahead for investors.

A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

02/20/2023

Last week's jump in U.S. retail sales together with January's blowout jobs report paint the picture of an exceptionally strong economy. This backdrop is hardly what one would expect from an economy that is still navigating inflationary pressures and the most aggressive central bank tightening cycle in four decades. Which begs the question, does the Fed need to do more? The bond market appears to think so, but equities remain unfazed.

Given what we learned last week, we share our thoughts on how the market narrative might evolve and how some of the existing market tensions might be resolved.