CAP Northwest

CAP Northwest Financial expertise you can trust. Learn where you are, where you want to go, and how to get there.

Investment advice offered through Columbia Advisory Partners, LLC. At CAP Northwest, we believe in insightful growthβ€”a journey that combines purposeful financial progress with the clarity to understand each step. We’re here to help you know where you stand financially and confidently plan for what’s next, offering the guidance to grow and the insights to stay ahead.

From Jeremy Russell:Client forwarded me a pitch last week: Private REIT offering 8.2% current yield. "This seems too goo...
04/16/2026

From Jeremy Russell:

Client forwarded me a pitch last week: Private REIT offering 8.2% current yield. "This seems too good to pass up."

We passed.

Not because it's a scam. We passed because of what it would mean for their specific situation.

$200K proposed investment. Client is 68, retired, $2.1M portfolio. Withdrawing $72K/year.

The pitch emphasized 8.2% yield and monthly distributions. What it didn't emphasize: 5-7 year lockup (they might need liquidity for health issues), distributions aren't guaranteed, and they already own an office buildingβ€”more real estate doesn't diversify anything.

The real question wasn't "is 8.2% good?" It was "what problem are we solving?"

They don't need more income. They DO need liquidity. Dad's health is declining.

So we moved $200K into intermediate-term municipal bonds yielding 3.8% tax-free. Less exciting. Fully liquid. Actually solved the problem they have.

Good financial advice often sounds boring. That's usually the point.

04/06/2026

"When should I start taking Social Security?"

The internet gives you 12 different answers, and they're all technically correct.

The math says: Every year you delay from 62 to 70, your benefit increases by roughly 7-8%. If you live into your mid-80s, delaying usually wins.

But the math doesn't account for your actual life.

One client had a pension that dropped at 65. Delaying Social Security until 70 meant drawing down the portfolio during market volatility.

Another had health concerns and a family history of shorter lifespans. Taking it at 62 meant more total dollars over their actual lifetime.

A third had a spouse 8 years younger with minimal work history. Delaying maximized the survivor benefit, which mattered more than anything else.

The right answer isn't about maximizing a spreadsheet. It's about integrating Social Security into a plan that accounts for pensions, portfolio withdrawals, tax brackets, and real life.

From Jeremy Russell:"How do I know if this private credit fund is actually safe?"A client asked me this while holding a ...
03/25/2026

From Jeremy Russell:

"How do I know if this private credit fund is actually safe?"

A client asked me this while holding a fund marketing piece that promised 9% annual returns with "low volatility."

Here's what I told them: You don't know it's safe. You know it's *less liquid* and *less transparent* than a bond fund. That's not the same thing.

Private credit funds don't have daily pricing. They don't have public ratings on every loan. They don't have the same regulatory disclosure requirements as mutual funds. The 9% yield reflects compensation for illiquidity, credit risk, and complexity.

That doesn't make them bad. We use private credit in client portfolios. But we use them knowing exactly what we don't know.

We ask: Who's the manager? What's their track record through a credit cycle, not just the last three years? What's the fee structure? How long is the lockup? What's the redemption process? What happens if the fund underperforms, can they gate withdrawals?

And most importantly: If this investment disappeared tomorrow, would it materially change the client's financial outcome? If the answer is yes, we don't do it.

Safety in alternatives isn't about the marketing deck. It's about position sizing, manager diligence, and honest conversations about what you're actually buying.

What's one question you wish you'd asked before making an investment?

We've been asked some version of this question at least a hundred times: "I have $2 million saved. Can I safely withdraw...
03/24/2026

We've been asked some version of this question at least a hundred times: "I have $2 million saved. Can I safely withdraw $150,000 a year in retirement?"

It's a perfectly reasonable question. You've spent decades accumulating this portfolio, and now you're trying to figure out if it can actually support the life you want to live. The math seems straightforward, $150K is 7.5% of $2 million. But anyone who's spent time managing retirement portfolios knows that simple division doesn't tell you much about whether your money will last thirty years.

The honest answer we give clients is always the same: it depends. Not because we're being evasive, but because the sustainability of any withdrawal strategy hinges on variables that are specific to your situation and, frankly, unknowable in advance. What we can do is stress-test your plan against a range of scenarios and build in adjustment mechanisms that give you the best chance of success.

# # Why the 4% Rule Doesn't Answer This Question

The classic 4% rule would suggest an $80,000 annual withdrawal from a $2 million portfolio. Our hypothetical $150K withdrawal is nearly double that. Does that mean it's impossible? Not necessarily. We've seen it work for some clients and fail spectacularly for others.

Last year, we worked with a couple, let's call them the Johnsons, who retired at 58 with about $2.1 million. They wanted to withdraw $145,000 annually until Social Security kicked in at 70, at which point their portfolio withdrawals would drop to around $75,000. They also owned their home outright and had no debt. Compare that to another client who retired at 62 with the same portfolio size, needed $150,000 indefinitely, still had a mortgage, and had no other income sources. Same withdrawal amount, completely different risk profiles.

The Johnsons' plan had built-in relief valves. The high withdrawal rate was temporary, and they had twelve years of known, reduced spending ahead once Social Security started. The second client was asking their portfolio to sustain a 7.5% withdrawal rate potentially into their nineties. We could make the first scenario work. The second one required some difficult conversations about expectations.

# # The Variables That Actually Matter

When we analyze a withdrawal strategy, we're looking at four main variables that interact in complex ways.

First is age and time horizon. A 70-year-old withdrawing $150K from $2 million faces a different challenge than a 55-year-old with the same numbers. The 70-year-old might have a twenty-year time horizon; the 55-year-old could need this portfolio to last forty years. Sequence of returns risk, the danger of hitting a bear market early in retirement, becomes more pronounced the longer your time horizon.

Second is spending flexibility. We had a client retire in early 2022 with a plan to withdraw $160,000 from a $2.2 million portfolio. By October of that year, the portfolio was down to $1.85 million. He called us, understandably concerned.

From Jeremy Russell:We scheduled a routine spring planning meeting last Tuesday - the usual agenda of reviewing portfoli...
03/22/2026

From Jeremy Russell:

We scheduled a routine spring planning meeting last Tuesday - the usual agenda of reviewing portfolio performance, rebalancing, and updating the financial plan. Thirty minutes, maybe forty-five if we covered everything.

Then the client mentioned her daughter just got engaged. What started as a congratulations turned into a 90-minute deep dive into gifting strategies. They wanted to help with the wedding and potentially a down payment, but weren't sure about the tax implications or the best timing.

We walked through annual exclusion gifts ($18,000 per person), discussed paying vendors directly to avoid gift tax issues, and modeled how a $75,000 gift now would affect their long-term plan versus spreading it over two years. By the end, they had a clear strategy that helped their daughter without disrupting their retirement timeline. This is why we never rush these meetings - you never know when a casual comment will unlock a conversation that really matters.

𝗙𝗿𝗼𝗺 π—π—²π—Ώπ—²π—Ίπ˜† π—₯π˜‚π˜€π˜€π—²π—Ήπ—Ή:This morning I sent the same email to four different CPAs on behalf of four different clients.Subjec...
03/20/2026

𝗙𝗿𝗼𝗺 π—π—²π—Ώπ—²π—Ίπ˜† π—₯π˜‚π˜€π˜€π—²π—Ήπ—Ή:

This morning I sent the same email to four different CPAs on behalf of four different clients.
Subject line: "Clarification on 2025 Roth conversion amounts."

Here's what happened: Last October, we executed Roth conversions for several clients based on projected income. The conversions were designed to fill up the 24% tax bracket without spilling into 32%.

Now it's March. Tax returns are being prepared. And in two cases, the clients had unexpected income, a bonus, a side consulting gig, that changed the math. The CPA needs to know the exact conversion amount, the date, and which custodian it came from.

This is the invisible work. The client doesn't see this email. They just see a tax return that's accurate and a strategy that worked, or needs adjusting for next year.

We're not the CPA. We're not preparing the return. But we are the ones who executed the transaction, and we're the ones who need to connect the dots between the October strategy and the April filing.

Good wealth management isn't just about picking investments. It's about making sure the person preparing your tax return has the information they need, when they need it, without you having to play intermediary.

How many emails do you think happen behind the scenes of your financial life that you never see?

From Keith Browning:A client emailed yesterday asking if they needed to sell stocks to cover their upcoming tax bill. It...
03/19/2026

From Keith Browning:

A client emailed yesterday asking if they needed to sell stocks to cover their upcoming tax bill. It's a question we hear every quarter during estimated tax season.

Before answering, we pulled up three things: their cash reserves across all accounts, their estimated tax liability for the quarter, and the cost basis on their taxable holdings. Turns out they had significantly more in money market funds than needed to cover the tax payment.

Here's the trap we avoided: if we'd sold appreciated stock instead, we would have created additional capital gains tax on top of the bill they were already paying. Selling stock with a low cost basis would have generated thousands in gains, adding meaningfully to their tax burden. Sometimes the obvious answer, sell some stocks, creates a bigger problem than it solves. That's why we always check the cash position first.

From Keith Browning:A client called last week asking if they should sell some stock to cover their Q1 estimated tax paym...
03/17/2026

From Keith Browning:

A client called last week asking if they should sell some stock to cover their Q1 estimated tax payment. It seemed straightforward enough, they needed cash, they had investments. But before answering, we pulled up three things: their cash reserves, the tax liability estimate, and the cost basis on those holdings.

Turns out they had plenty of cash sitting in their account. They'd just forgotten it was there. If they'd sold the stock, they would have triggered a significant capital gain on shares purchased years ago, essentially creating a new tax bill while paying the current one.

It's mid-March, K-1s are trickling in, and the April deadline is suddenly feeling real. This is when people make quick decisions that seem logical in the moment but create unintended consequences. Sometimes the obvious move isn't the smart move.

The best tax planning happens when you can see the whole picture before you act, not just what you owe, but what each decision sets in motion. That's the part that doesn't show up on the tax form.

A client looked at their 2025 year-end statement and said: "I earned $272,000 last year in my portfolio. That sounds gre...
03/17/2026

A client looked at their 2025 year-end statement and said: "I earned $272,000 last year in my portfolio. That sounds great, but what does that actually mean for my retirement plan?"

It's a better question than most people ask.

That $272K breaks down into roughly $89K in dividends and interest, $104K in realized gains from rebalancing, and $79K in unrealized appreciation. Only the first two categories generated cash. The third is just a number on a page.

Of the $193K that was "real," about $140K was reinvested automatically. They actually spent $53K from the portfolio to supplement their pension and Social Security.

So what does $272K mean for retirement? It means the portfolio grew while also funding part of their lifestyle. It means the withdrawal rate was about 1.8% of the total portfolio value. It means they're not just sustainable, they're compounding.

But here's what it doesn't mean: it doesn't mean they can spend $272K every year. Markets don't work that way.

The number that matters isn't what you earned last year. It's whether your spending rate is sustainable across market cycles. A great year can obscure an unsustainable plan, and a rough year can make a solid plan feel shaky.

What's the one number on your statement you wish you understood better?

From Jeremy Russell:A client called last week needing $40,000 for a kitchen remodel. Simple question: "Should I pull thi...
03/14/2026

From Jeremy Russell:

A client called last week needing $40,000 for a kitchen remodel. Simple question: "Should I pull this from my IRA or my brokerage account?"

Here's why it matters: An IRA withdrawal becomes fully taxable income, which could push them from the 22% federal bracket into 24% - meaning an extra $800 in taxes on that last portion. Their brokerage account held shares with a low cost basis, but it also had $18,000 in cash from recent dividends.

The answer wasn't obvious until we looked at three things: their current tax bracket, the unrealized gains in the brokerage account, and what assets each account actually held. We ended up using the brokerage cash plus a small amount from shares with minimal gains, keeping their tax bill under $2,400 instead of the $9,600 an IRA withdrawal would have triggered. Same $40,000 out the door, $7,200 difference in taxes paid.

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