09/04/2026
Rates hit their highest levels since 2023 this week. Here's what happened.
Monday kicked things off with a jolt — overnight U.S. strikes on Iranian targets sent oil surging toward $91 a barrel and pushed yields sharply higher to start the week. The Fed's tone wasn't helping either. Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole comments from the prior Friday had already put markets on notice that hikes were back on the table if inflation didn't cooperate.
Tuesday and Wednesday kept the pressure on. Record global debt levels, planned treasury buybacks, AI-fueled corporate spending, and an Iran situation with no resolution in sight all piled on. The bond market was getting squeezed from every direction.
Thursday brought a brief reprieve. The 10-Year pulled back slightly after touching highs not seen since 2023, and jobless claims came in near expectations. Services activity also surged — PMI hit 56.5 for August, well above what the market expected.
Then Friday's jobs report landed and flipped the script. Nonfarm payrolls came in at 162,000 — more than three times the 53,000 forecast. Unemployment held at 4.1%. That's the strongest jobs print since March, and it's enough to give the Fed pause before pulling the hike trigger at their upcoming meeting.
Rates are still elevated, but this week ended with more uncertainty than it started with — and uncertainty cuts both ways.
If you've been on the sideline waiting for clarity, this is your reminder that the data doesn't move in a straight line. What you can control is being prepared. DM me and let's run your numbers. 📊
