04/15/2020
Commentary:
Mortgage apps increased 7.3% last week, with the entire gain coming from refinance applications. Compared to one year ago, refinances are up 192% but purchases are down 35%. Low rates can’t overcome the stay-at-home effects on home sales. The great news is -For buyers looking to buy a home now, they won’t have the bidding issues they’ve faced the past 3 years, and sellers are more willing to negotiate price and/or pay closing costs…
In retail sales, results are mixed. Total sales fell 8.7% in March, primarily due to drops in gasoline and auto sales. Digging deeper, we see that clothing, furniture, and restaurants had big declines, while food delivery and online shopping had nice gains. No surprises there. The question on everyone’s mind is how fast will the economy recover when restrictions are lifted? Markets are more likely to react to sustained drops in economic activity rather than a “temporary contraction”.