My Portfolio Guide, LLC

06/04/2026

We recently wrote about the SpaceX IPO over at Dear Mr. Market, and the timing of this table from Truist couldn't be more perfect.

This is what happens to high-profile IPOs after the excitement fades.

Facebook: -31% in the first year. Max drawdown of -54%.
Uber: -21% in year one. Max drawdown of -68%.
Robinhood: -74% in year one. Max drawdown of -90%.
Rivian: -67% in year one. Max drawdown of -88%.

The median 12-month return across all 30 IPOs in this study? -9%. The average max drawdown? -55%.

Only 43% of these stocks were positive at the 12-month mark.

These aren't obscure companies. These are household names that everyone wanted a piece of on Day One.

SpaceX will be the most hyped IPO in history. The demand will be real. The story will be compelling. And the temptation to chase it will be enormous.
But the data has a way of cutting through the noise.
We're not saying don't ever own it. We're saying don't be the person who buys it on Day One because you couldn't wait.

Full article at www.dearmrmarket.com

05/30/2026

🚀 SpaceX is finally going public.

It's being called the largest and most anticipated IPO in stock market history, with a valuation approaching $2 trillion. For many investors, the temptation will be simple: buy first, ask questions later.

We're taking a different approach.

There's no question SpaceX is an incredible company. It dominates space launches, operates the world's largest satellite network through Starlink, and sits at the center of several long-term growth themes. But great companies don't always make great investments at every price.
History is littered with examples of investors who paid too much for exciting stories.
In this Dear Mr. Market article, we break down:

• The valuation and what investors are actually paying for
• The unusual insider lockup structure
• Why the first few months after an IPO can be especially volatile
• The difference between a great company and a great investment
• Whether we're buyers, sellers, or waiting patiently

Our edge has never been being first.
It's been being disciplined.

Read the full article here: https://dearmrmarket.com/2026/05/30/spacex-is-going-public-heres-why-were-not-chasing-it-on-day-one/

$SPCX

A $2 trillion valuation. The most anticipated IPO ever. Millions of investors ready to pile in. But history teaches an important lesson: great companies don’t always make great investments at…

05/22/2026

One of the most dangerous things in investing is confusing intelligence, charisma, or media attention with disciplined portfolio management.

Cathie Wood became the face of “disruptive innovation” during the zero-rate, stimulus-fueled frenzy of 2020. Investors piled into $ARKK believing they had found the next investing genius. Financial media amplified it. Retail investors chased it. Wall Street marketed it.

Fast forward five years:
The boring, low-cost S&P 500 dramatically outperformed ARKK while charging almost no fees. Meanwhile, many ARKK investors suffered massive drawdowns, huge volatility, and significant opportunity cost.
That doesn’t mean Cathie Wood is unintelligent. In fact, many of her long-term themes around AI, genomics, robotics, and innovation may ultimately prove directionally correct.

But being “right” on a theme is very different than making money for clients.
Timing matters.
Valuation matters.
Risk management matters.
Position sizing matters.
Diversification matters.

The market has a way of humbling both investors and gurus...especially when narratives become crowded and emotion replaces discipline.

We’ve said this many times over the years:
You do not need to swing for the fences to build substantial wealth.
Sometimes the “boring” approach of diversification, discipline, tactical allocation, and controlling costs quietly wins while the headlines chase the next superstar manager.

"Stay disciplined to stay positive."
-MPG

05/21/2026

Last week we had a fantastic meeting with a sports agent for one of our mutual clients. Lots of people think the value of a financial advisor solely rests with managing the ups & downs of the market, but it goes far beyond that. Comprehensive financial planning, along with the whole team understanding that the left hand needs to know what the right is doing, is paramount.

05/16/2026

The market sold off pretty hard yesterday.
At dinner last night someone asked:
“Your phones must’ve been ringing off the hook this week?”

Number of worried client calls we received?
Zero.

Number of clients currently outperforming their respective benchmarks this year...and over the past several years?
All of them.

Turns out blindly crowding into the same overpriced mega cap trade as every big box and boilerplate firm isn’t the only way to invest.
Tactical allocation, diversification, and actually looking beyond the S&P 500 still matter.

05/15/2026

Wall Street strategist Ed Yardeni just raised his 2026 S&P 500 target to 8,250, citing one of the strongest earnings expansion environments he’s ever seen and what he calls an “earnings-led melt-up.”

At the beginning of the year, My Portfolio Guide's S&P 500 target was 7,494. We’re now just 46 points away.

Could the market continue melting higher from here? Absolutely. Strong earnings, AI optimism, and resilient economic data could continue pushing stocks well beyond what many expected just a few months ago.

But markets rarely move in straight lines.

We still believe there’s a strong possibility of at least one meaningful summer or early fall correction as the market digests this recovery rally and inevitably encounters another curve ball or “black swan” event.

As the old saying goes:
“Pigs get fat, but hogs get slaughtered.”

Long-term investors should stay optimistic...but also disciplined.

05/14/2026

My Portfolio Guide, LLC has more than doubled in size over the past few years, and we’re excited about the next stage of growth.
We’re looking to partner with 1-2 experienced financial advisors who want more than the typical big-box, boilerplate environment. Advisors who value independence, deep client relationships, fiduciary planning, and the ability to truly build something meaningful.
This is an opportunity for the right person to join a growing boutique RIA with:
• Industry-leading payouts
• Partnership and equity potential
• A collaborative, entrepreneurial culture
• The freedom to differentiate yourself and your practice
If you’re a seasoned advisor with a strong practice, CFP® designation, and long-term mindset, we’d welcome a confidential conversation.

05/10/2026

We don’t usually post for every holiday or calendar event.
But Mother’s Day feels different.
To all the moms, grandmothers, stepmoms, and mother figures... thank you for the love, sacrifice, patience, wisdom, and strength you bring to the people around you every day.
And as financial advisors, we’ve also seen firsthand that many of the best long-term investors are women: thoughtful, disciplined, patient, and focused on what matters most.
Happy Mother’s Day from all of us at My Portfolio Guide.

05/09/2026

One of the best that couldn't be more true.

05/08/2026

Healthcare is starting to look interesting again, but it comes with a catch.

The sector is at an all-time low weighting in the S&P 500 while the index sits near all-time highs. That's textbook late-cycle rotation out of defensives...and historically, that kind of setup precedes a sharp reversal back into healthcare when growth disappoints and the crowding unwinds.

The demographic case is hard to argue with. An aging population doesn't go away. Innovation doesn't slow down. At some point this sector becomes a screaming buy.

We're not quite there yet. The average P/E in healthcare is still above 26 times earnings, so not cheap enough to call it a pure value play. It's more of a "watch closely" than a "back up the truck" moment.

Here's the irony most investors miss: healthcare is underweighted in the S&P right now, but it's dramatically overweighted in most people's actual lives. Your out-of-pocket costs, insurance premiums, and long-term care exposure are already enormous. Having more of it in your portfolio might be more of a hedge than most people realize.

The setup is building. The timing isn't perfect. But this is one to have on your radar.

$XLV