Austin Rogers - Wealth Advisor

05/24/2024

It’s the beginning of Memorial Weekend - Thank you to all who have sacrificed their lives for this great country. They have allowed us to live with freedom and democracy. Let’s remember this weekend what it is for and celebrate for those who have lost their lives.

Thank you to all my clients, friends and family who have served.

Our office is closed on Monday, May 27th in observance of the holiday. If you have a question or a request, send me an email and I’ll get back with you on Tuesday, May 28th.

Have a great weekend everybody!

05/03/2024

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐅𝐞𝐝 𝐆𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐭𝐡 & 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐅𝐞𝐝 𝐓𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐡 𝐀𝐰𝐚𝐲
Six months ago, the financial markets were giddy with excitement as economists predicted three to six rate cuts in 2024. The game was as follows: inflation subsides, the economy slows, unemployment ticks upward and the Central Bank cuts the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) in an effort to achieve its dual mandate of stable prices and full employment.

For months, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at possible rate cuts in 2024, but in the past several weeks those proclamations have been tempered. Over the past three months, inflation has proven to be much harder to eradicate than expected. Currently, rate cut estimates range from two to three cuts – to no rate cuts – to even a rate hike or two. The increased uncertainty has led to some additional market volatility, and overall weakness.

The equity markets enjoy low rates like most of us enjoy ice cream – if investors get a whiff of a rate cut, markets rally, but if investors get a whiff of higher for longer, or even simply higher, the markets sell off.

Now, do I think an investor would rather have a weak economy, increasing unemployment, and rate cuts OR a good economy, low unemployment, and no rate cuts? I think the latter. The equity markets are forward-looking and just as quickly as prices adjusted to the prospect of rate cuts, they can adjust back.

This is a great time to revisit your portfolio and check on progress toward your financial goals. If you have any questions about the Fed, inflation, or the economy in general and how WT Wealth Management’s Investment Committee is proactively constructing client portfolios, please do not hesitate to reach out.

Click the link below to read more from WT Wealth Management's, CIO, John Heilner.

11/02/2023

𝐂𝐨-𝐧𝐮𝐧-𝐝𝐫𝐮𝐦: 𝐀 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐢𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐦 𝐨𝐫 𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧

The last few months of economic data along with calls of recession from Wall Street strategists present a conundrum. For every positive data point observed a contradictory data point is never far behind.
𝐇𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚 𝐟𝐞𝐰 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐬:

1) Is the US consumer tapped out? According to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, US consumers have exhausted just about all their built-up, pandemic-related savings. However, the most recent US retail sales release suggests Americans aren’t drawing in their purse strings just yet after increasing 0.7% in September - more than doubling expectations.
2) Housing prices must have tanked after facing substantially higher mortgage rates, right? Nope. National housing prices were up 2.0% during the third quarter.
3) Banks must be falling like dominoes as their cost of funds skyrockets, lending activity dries up, and loans, sour like Halloween candy? Nope. There has been no sign of weakness in the banking sector yet.
4) The stock market must be resisting? Negative. Despite modest declines since Q1 2023, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices remain solidly positive this year.
5) Oil prices have increased like there in no recession in sight, while gold prices the traditional and uncertainty hedge, declined.

If all that isn’t confounding enough, according to the latest GDP report, Q3 GDP ripped by a stunning 4.9% increase year-over-year, consumer spending being responsible for 68% of the growth.

𝐘𝐨𝐮 𝐬𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐚 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐠𝐨𝐨𝐝 𝐰𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡, 𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐮𝐧𝐞𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐨𝐲𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐯𝐞 𝐚𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐆𝐃𝐏 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡. At WT Wealth Management, each day we feel recession pressures ease as we get closer to, if not already reached, the end of the Fed’s tightening cycle.

𝐈𝐭’𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐬𝐤 𝐡𝐨𝐰 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐟𝐥𝐨𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐜𝐤𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐅𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐜𝐲𝐜𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐥𝐲 𝟏𝟗𝟖𝟎’𝐬? The answer lies in the strength and resiliency of the American consumer. Unless we see measurable job losses, fear of job losses, people will continue to shop, travel, spend and not sacrifice any personal experiences or luxuries. Maybe sub-3%, 30-year residential mortgages are freeing up additional disposable income.

While we may be short on what lies ahead, we are tall on conundrums today.

Read more by WT Wealth Management's CIO, John Heilner, with the link below.

As a Wall Street observer for more than 30 years the last few months of economic data along with persistent calls of recession from Wall Street strategists present a conundrum. For every positive data point observed a contradictory data point is never far behind.

10/18/2023

Earnings season is an essential piece of the puzzle that investors use to help analyze current expectations and reality.

𝐄𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐒𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐨𝐧: 𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐈𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬

Earnings season refers to the periods of the year during which most quarterly corporate earnings are released to the public. Corporate earnings are an important part of understanding how a company is performing and they have 45 days from the end of their fiscal quarter to file the financial information with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Earnings season is the busiest time of the year for those who intently watch the markets. The financials reported by each publicly traded company often have a significant impact on the “short-term” performance of their stock and the markets (S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones, etc.)

Topics generally covered during earnings calls include a discussion of financial performance, management changes, legal involvement, industry changes, and more. Earnings season boils down to how expectations match up with reality. If a company beats or misses the analysts’ predictions, you can see price swings as investors scramble to buy or sell the stock to reflect updated expectations and guidance. Even if you don’t own the company that is reporting, it can still impact your portfolio as a major industry player will affect its own stock price, as well as stocks in its industry.

While it’s important to recognize that earnings season can be volatile, smart investors avoid making long-term investment decisions based on short-term results.

At WT Wealth Management (WTWM), we feel that following earnings season allows us to be better informed investors. Our Investment Committee, will spend the next several weeks reading, watching and listening to earnings releases from hundreds of individual companies, which we will analyze. We believe this is our duty to you, so that we are armed with the information necessary to make intelligent investment decisions for the benefit of your portfolio.

Click the link to read more of the October 2023 White Paper written by WTWM's Chief Investment Officer, John Heilner.

Over the next several weeks, if you read the Wall Street Journal or tune into CNBC, you will hear a lot of talk about earnings season. Earnings seasons refers to the periods of the year during which most quarterly corporate earnings are released to the public. Earnings season begins the month follow...

08/02/2023

𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐅𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬 𝐀𝐛𝐚𝐭𝐞
The last few weeks we have seen renewed enthusiasm within the equity markets as investors are embracing the possibility of a “soft landing” or “no landing” recession within the US economy.

Stocks and bonds have rallied since mid-spring as inflation pressures eased quicker than expected. July 12th and 13th showed better than anticipated CPI and PPI reports, which lifted hopes that US inflation can be returned to a normal range without triggering a recession.

Restrictive monetary policy (increasing interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet) has long been a tactic used by the Fed to slow inflation, but restrictive policy comes at a cost. Will the Fed’s actions kill the US economy, the housing market and millions of jobs? So far, they haven’t. The combined 525 bps (5.25%) of Fed Funds Rate increases has not delivered significant pain to the economy despite the Fed’s warning a year ago to expect plenty of discomfort.

When the story is finally written, the US economy may be remembered as more resilient to higher interest rates than many thought possible. The post-Covid world is littered with surprises and maybe, this is the biggest surprise of them all.

Please read more by WT Wealth Management's CIO, John Heilner with the link below.

Over the last several weeks we have seen an acceleration in the equity markets as investors embrace the prospect of a soft landing or no landing recession within the U.S. economy.

05/16/2023

𝐀𝐧 𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐧 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬, 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐆𝐃𝐏

𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬
Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has been raising rates aggressively to combat red-hot inflation numbers. The Fed Funds Rate (FFR) was near-zero during the pandemic. The combination of near-zero interest rates with direct stimulus checks to consumers, loans to business for pandemic relief and enhanced unemployment benefits helped cause inflation number be as high as they have been for the last 12-months. In its ongoing battle with inflation, the Fed raised rates last week for the tenth consecutive meeting bringing the FFR from 0.00%-0.25% to 5.00%-5.25%, the most dramatic move by the Fed since the early 1980’s. The FFR has an impact on consumers’ financial lives by influencing how much consumers are charged to borrow and how much they earn in interest on their savings. The magnitude of the rate hikes in the current cycle has sparked leaps in mortgage rates, auto loans, credit cards, and home equity lines of credit. Yields on bonds, certificates of deposits (CDs) and savings accounts are also on the rise.
𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐫 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 (𝐂𝐏𝐈) & 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐞𝐫 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 (𝐏𝐏𝐈)
We are finally seeing indications that the efforts of the Fed are beginning to take hold. CPI rose 0.1% in March against a Dow Jones estimate for 0.2% and 5% from a year ago versus the 5.1% estimate. While inflation is still well above the Fed’s target rate (2%) it is still showing signs of deceleration.
Encouragingly, PPI also slid downward in March with annualized price increases sinking to 2.7%, below the 3.0% expectations, and substantially down from 4.9% in February 2023. Supply chains appear to be back in sync since being disrupted by the pandemic.
𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐬 𝐃𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭 (𝐆𝐃𝐏)
On April 27th, US Q1 GDP was released indicating the US economic activity grew at a slower pace (1.1%) than expected (1.9%), a warning that the economy is slowing. Q1 GDP was significantly cooler than the previous two quarters, which saw annualized growth of 2.9% and 3.2% respectively.
𝐔𝐧𝐞𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐨𝐲𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭
The most recent employment report shows modest slowdowns in hiring and wage growth and no measurable increase in the unemployment rate, which remains sub-4% and near historic lows.

Read more by WT Wealth Management's CIO, John Heilner by clicking the link below.
https://www.wtwealthmanagement.com/articles/market-update/2023-05/

Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve's (Fed's) aggressive interest rate policy has been all about reigning in red-hot inflation numbers. As a result of the global pandemic the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) had been moved to near-zero.

05/12/2023

𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐈 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐭 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠?
One of the most commonly asked personal finance questions I get asked. Listen to what you should have taken care of before you start putting money to work and building your wealth!

04/26/2023

𝟓𝟎-𝟑𝟎-𝟐𝟎 𝐑𝐮𝐥𝐞
As inflation persists, use this strategy to budget your income and limit your expenses.

Personal finance starts with your budget!

04/18/2023

Did you know at WT Wealth Management we do not have a minimum investment amount? Yup, that is correct! We help all types of clients - young adults who are early in their careers, middle-aged adults and retirees who need help managing their retirement assets. We help high-net worth individuals and people who are just starting their investing journey/retirement funding. If you are unsure about your financial or retirement plan, let's set up a phone call to discuss how I can help you achieve your short-term and long-term financial goals!

04/12/2023

𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐈 𝐝𝐨 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐦𝐲 𝐞𝐱𝐭𝐫𝐚 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐡?

Last month’s banking crisis at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) woke a lot of investors up to two things; they shouldn’t have more than the FDIC limit of $250,000 at a single bank and with the rise in interest rates over the last year there may be better places to have excess cash than in your local banks checking or savings accounts.

At WT Wealth Management, we help with many more aspects of your financial life than simple account management of asset allocation and selecting ETF’s, Mutual Funds, stock and bonds. Other areas of expertise include financial planning, tax mitigation strategies, estate planning, household budgeting, debt reduction strategies and household cash management. It’s our job to help you squeeze every drop of interest, coupon and return from your investments. With inflation eroding purchasing power it’s more critical than ever to search for alternatives that could boost your interest income over what is typically offered at a credit union, regional bank or large financial institution.

For the better part of the past decade with interest rates near zero, cash was as good a place as any for emergency/sleep well at night cash-reserves. But with the Fed Funds Rate soaring from 0 to 4.75% in the past 12 months there are a variety of good, safe alternative investments beyond holding deposits at your local banking institution.

If you are holding more than 3-6 months of emergency cash in a savings or checking account, please contact me to explore many of the safe and highly liquid choices that are available to investors today.

03/29/2023

I have been running through ideas for my next couple of videos, some I like and others I am not sure if the one's watching would be interested. For those of you who watch my videos, are there any personal finance topics that you would like to see me discuss in my next couple of videos? Do you have any questions regarding the current state of the markets?

I appreciate your feedback and hope you all have a great day!

P.S. I bought a new microphone so my videos will have better sound quality (Yay)!