08/28/2023
As wealth advisors, we are often asked “What do you think about the markets?” Our answer is consistent. Long term, we are bullish, but nobody knows what’s going to happen in the next few months, which is why we think it is important to stay the course for long-term investing in most cases. With that said, we do heavily lean on the research available to us when formulating our recommendations.
Click on the link below for a piece LPL authored recently with their analysis on the second-half of 2023.
LPL Midyear Outlook: https://www.lpl.com/news-media/research-insights/lpl-research-midyear-outlook-2023-the-path-toward-stability.html
Guided by LPL’s research, here is what our team at Puzzle has done over the past year for our clients:
• In the spring and summer of 2022, we added to Equities for many clients for a few reasons, including the timing of the election cycle and the market sell-off.
• At the very least, we advised clients to “stay the course” and not to panic and sell – even though nearly every headline was negative and scary at the time.
• Fast forward one year to a significantly higher stock market. We’ve been advising clients to reduce their equity exposure and lock in profits. This is NOT a timing call on the markets but rather a portfolio discipline warranted by our clients’ individually tailored financial plans.
• One of the primary reasons we are happy to be taking profits in the equity space is due to the fact that less volatile assets like FDIC-insured CDs and US Treasury bonds are offering attractive rates - at around 5–5.5%. These are levels we haven’t seen in approximately 15 years. Some might say these assets are boring, but if we can earn 5% on “boring” assets, we’re all for that.
• In addition, the bond markets are indicating that they are expecting rates to be lower soon due to the inverted yield curve. With the inversion of the curve, we are also locking in some longer duration in the 5 and 10-year space. Negative events like a global war, another pandemic, or a deep recession could cause the Federal Reserve to drop rates quickly. It’s almost impossible to predict those black swan events, and we would be kicking ourselves if we didn’t lock in some bonds for longer. On the flipside, if rates continue upward then our short-term investments will likely allow us to reinvest at higher rates in the future. A disciplined approach like barbell investing (both short-term and longer-term) in the fixed income markets takes away some of the risk associated with investing in bonds.
• Last, our team’s fixed income portfolio is now 85% in individual bonds/CDs and 15% in a lower-cost ETF. Focusing on maximizing yield, reducing risk, and lowering overall expenses are a good recipe for efficiency.
If you would like our team to review your portfolio, please let us know or visit our website using the link below.
https://puzzlewealth.com/contact-us