09/29/2026
๐ October could be a very important month for mortgage rates.
Two dates are worth watching:
๐ October 14 โ U.S. CPI inflation report
๐ฆ October 28 โ Federal Reserve rate decision
Why should real estate investors and homebuyers care?
The Federal Reserve does not directly set mortgage rates, but inflation expectations, Fed policy and movements in Treasury yields can all influence the bond market โ and therefore mortgage pricing.
Right now, economists are increasingly divided about what happens next.
A Reuters poll published in September found that most economists expected the Fed to hold rates steady through the rest of 2026, but a growing number were beginning to see the possibility of another rate increase if inflation remains stubborn.
So October could come down to one big question:
Is inflation cooling enough to take pressure off borrowing costsโฆ or does the Fed need to stay aggressive for longer?
For real estate, either scenario could matter:
๐ Lower inflation โ potentially friendlier bond yields and mortgage rates
๐ Persistent inflation โ rates could stay higher for longer
๐ Mortgage-rate moves โ affordability and buyer demand change
๐ฐ Investor financing โ cash flow calculations change
The next FOMC meeting is officially scheduled for October 27โ28, with the rate decision and press conference on October 28.
๐ What do you think happens first: mortgage rates back toward 6%, or another Fed hike?
Curious to hear everyone's prediction.
โ ๏ธ MORTGAGE BROKER ONLY. NOT A MORTGAGE LENDER OR MORTGAGE CORRESPONDENT LENDER.
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