10/14/2021
Practitioners across the County rely on the U.S. Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program to estimate the total state and local population levels between Census years. Now that the 2020 Census population counts are out, RDN analysts looked back to ask: How accurate were the estimates?
Our analysis shows that overall the estimates are remarkably accurate. However, there were large deviations between the two distributions in the tails, meaning the Vintage population estimates tend to significantly over- and under-estimate the actual population change for the counties that gained or lost the most population over the 2010 to 2020 period.
This article explores what might explain these outliers and summarizes the analysis in interactive figures. Take a look at the county-level map and tell us which County's population change surprises you the most?
Synopsis: A variety of practitioners use the U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program to estimate total state and local population levels between decennial census years. Now that the 2020 Census population counts are out, we look back and ask: how accurate were the estimates? RDN examined...