Tim Dugan, NMLS #459793

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Tim Dugan, NMLS #459793

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10/27/2026

Global headlines pushed rates around last week. Here’s your Know in 90 for the week of October 27! 🎥

France: yields rose at first, then a flight to safety into US Treasuries pulled rates down. That was good for some mortgage rates.
AI compute spend and debt worries sent more money into Treasuries too. The fear seems to be subsiding.
Case-Shiller: home prices rose 0.3% in August. Nice! We’ll see how that holds in the months to come.
The Fed kicks off a 2-day meeting this week. No rate change expected, but I’m watching the statement and press conference.
What are you watching in the rate world? Comment or DM me 😊

KnowIn90 HomeLoans

Tim Dugan | NMLS 459793

10/13/2026

Happy Tuesday! Donning a sweater today as it was a day with a slight chill of late is happening - we’re a moving into fall for sure...and now, some updates for the week.

Rates are testing a ceiling – and CPI tomorrow is the next big test. Since late August, the 10-year Treasury has pushed from about 4.65 up to a ceiling of resistance near 5.29. At those yields, bond investors are stepping in, which is keeping things in check and helping mortgage rates.

The next piece is inflation data. We need the market to like what it sees on CPI. It has already priced in a hotter read – hopefully we catch a break.

Meanwhile, home buying continues. Existing home sales rose 1.5% in September, stronger than expected. Inventory increased 1.9%. First-time buyers are hanging in there at 31% of sales, and homes are sitting a little longer at 33 days on market.

For buyers, that means a bit more negotiating power. In some areas, that’s price discounts or other incentives. We’ll see how it all plays out!

Full breakdown in this week’s Know in 90 video.

09/15/2026

Good to be with you all again and happy Tuesday!

Of late, we’ve been a bit focused on what the 10-Year Bond is doing, and rightfully so.

If you can believe it, the 10-year is kissing levels we haven’t seen since 2007.

Now tie that in with a critical Fed meeting today/tomorrow. The market is pricing in a 92% chance the Fed will hike by .25%. In short, it wants it.

Looking at the CME Group, thoughts are the Fed will raise a full percent by next year. But we hold. A lot can happen, and this can all change even tomorrow with the Fed press conference.

How about some better news?

The Cotality Homeowner Equity Report for Q2 posted some impressive numbers. Borrowers with a mortgage have a total equity position of $17.9 trillion, with $11.5 trillion in tappable equity.

Wild, right?

So stay tuned.

Tomorrow we’ll also get a better look at how the consumer is holding up under higher prices. Will the Fed raise rates? Will their comments calm the 10-year bond?

It’s a big week.

08/18/2026

It’s good to be with you all again! Here’s a look at some of the things happening out there...

If it feels like interest rates are higher, you’re right. The 10-year Treasury recently approached 4.71%, a level we haven’t seen since January 2025. While recent inflation reports have shown some improvement, year-over-year inflation remains elevated. Add growing concerns around federal debt levels, and markets continue to face upward pressure on rates.

On the consumer side, July retail sales fell 0.6%. Looking deeper, reports suggest Amazon Prime Day sales underperformed expectations, while “buy now, pay later” usage continues to grow. Consumers appear to be feeling the strain of higher living costs.

Housing remains constrained. Existing home inventory in July was approximately 400,000 units below 2019 levels, and higher mortgage rates are creating additional headwinds during the summer buying season. Pending home sales have fallen to their lowest level since January 2026.

This week, investors will be watching the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes for additional insight into policymakers’ thinking on inflation, rates, and the broader economy.

07/07/2026

Happy Tuesday everyone! About a month into summer...but now, for the news...

Last week, we were watching for the June jobs reports — and note this.

The government’s BLS report showed only 57,000 jobs created in June, about half of what was expected.

But here’s the bigger story: there were 507,000 job losses, and because the workforce shrank by 720,000, the unemployment rate actually moved down to 4.2%.

That sounds better on the surface, but not exactly for the right reasons.

Now let’s look at the cost of money.

Oil has moved back down to pre-war levels, and that’s good news. We’ll take it. But we really haven’t seen much relief at the pump yet.

And while the 10-year yield has come down from its highs, it has only moved lower by about 30%. Hopefully, as things settle, fuel prices and rates will settle too.

We are now just over one month into summer, and the home buying season continues.

Cotality posted its May home price insights, showing prices up 0.6%. They are also forecasting 4.8% appreciation over the year ahead.

This week, we get the Fed minutes.

And unfortunately, we are also watching missile strikes near the Strait of Hormuz.

The market is watching, rates are watching — and so are we.

InterestRates

06/30/2026

Happy Tuesday... Here we go!

Oil keeps sliding and is now trading below $70 a barrel — and that matters.

Last week’s inflation report came in hotter, with May PCE up 0.4% and year-over-year inflation moving from 3.8% to 4.1%. Normally, that would get the market’s attention fast. But with oil now moving lower, markets seem to be taking the inflation bump in stride — at least for now.

We also got the final Q1 GDP revision, and the number moved up from 1.6% to 2.1%. Sounds good on the surface, but the details were mixed. Consumer spending was revised lower, and a lot of the growth came from private investment — including continued expansion tied to AI data centers.

On the jobs side, May JOLTS showed 7.6 million job openings, while the quits rate is still sitting near cycle lows. Translation: workers are being more cautious.

Now the focus shifts to this week’s ADP and BLS jobs reports. Those could help shape the next move for rates.

06/16/2026

📊 Weekly Market Snapshot

Seems there’s a U.S.–Iran peace deal this week that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz—and oil is already reacting. Prices have dropped from $100+ to under $80 in about a month.

🏡 Home equity remains strong: $35 trillion total, up $1T year over year.
🚀 Markets are also watching the ripple effects from SpaceX’s massive IPO—strong markets can boost confidence (and housing demand).

👀 Next up: Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting as Chair this Wednesday.

06/02/2026

Good day everyone! Have to say, graduations are in full swing here and tons going on. At the same time, stats keep posting giving us a peek on the consumer and what might happen in housing. Check these stats out:

This week, attention shifts to the labor market. April’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) surprised to the upside, showing 7.6M openings vs. 6.9M expected. At the same time, the quits rate declined to 1.9%, signaling fewer workers voluntarily leaving jobs—often a sign of growing caution in the workforce.

Consumers are feeling pressure. The personal savings rate has dropped to 2.6%, its lowest level since 2008, while delinquencies are rising across credit cards, student loans, and auto loans.

On housing, Fannie Mae’s Q2 survey of 150 economists points to modest appreciation ahead: 1.7% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.8% by 2028.

All eyes now turn to upcoming jobs data—will ADP align with BLS trends?

05/19/2026

📊 This Week’s Market Snapshot

The Strait of Hormuz is still closed, keeping oil prices high and adding to inflation pressure. Recent reports showed both consumer and wholesale inflation trending higher—and mortgage rates are responding.

🏡 Builders are adapting:
• 32% cutting prices
• Avg. reduction: 6%
• 61% using buyer incentives

👔 Big shift ahead: Kevin Warsh steps in as Fed Chair this Friday. For now, markets expect rates to hold steady—but the outlook later this year is still uncertain.

05/12/2026

📈 Weekly Market Check‑In

Peace negotiations remain under pressure, pushing the 10‑year Treasury higher—up from ~3.95% in early March to 4.45% today. Still, markets are eager to reward real progress toward stability.

April CPI rose from 3.3% to 3.8% YoY, with gas prices up 5.4%, keeping cost‑of‑living concerns front and center.

Housing showed resilience: new‑home sales up 7.4% (more affordable builds), existing sales up slightly, and days on market fell to 32.

👀 Ahead: peace‑talk developments and retail sales data.

Address

3700 State Street Suite 310
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93105

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Website

https://www.cmghomeloans.com/mysite/timothy-dugan

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