Tim Dugan, NMLS #459793

Tim Dugan, NMLS #459793 CMG Home Loans NMLS ID # 1820
Equal Housing Opportunity
Branch NMLS ID # 2475579
www.cmghomeloans.com/corporate/licensing

08/18/2026

It’s good to be with you all again! Here’s a look at some of the things happening out there...

If it feels like interest rates are higher, you’re right. The 10-year Treasury recently approached 4.71%, a level we haven’t seen since January 2025. While recent inflation reports have shown some improvement, year-over-year inflation remains elevated. Add growing concerns around federal debt levels, and markets continue to face upward pressure on rates.

On the consumer side, July retail sales fell 0.6%. Looking deeper, reports suggest Amazon Prime Day sales underperformed expectations, while “buy now, pay later” usage continues to grow. Consumers appear to be feeling the strain of higher living costs.

Housing remains constrained. Existing home inventory in July was approximately 400,000 units below 2019 levels, and higher mortgage rates are creating additional headwinds during the summer buying season. Pending home sales have fallen to their lowest level since January 2026.

This week, investors will be watching the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes for additional insight into policymakers’ thinking on inflation, rates, and the broader economy.

07/07/2026

Happy Tuesday everyone! About a month into summer...but now, for the news...

Last week, we were watching for the June jobs reports — and note this.

The government’s BLS report showed only 57,000 jobs created in June, about half of what was expected.

But here’s the bigger story: there were 507,000 job losses, and because the workforce shrank by 720,000, the unemployment rate actually moved down to 4.2%.

That sounds better on the surface, but not exactly for the right reasons.

Now let’s look at the cost of money.

Oil has moved back down to pre-war levels, and that’s good news. We’ll take it. But we really haven’t seen much relief at the pump yet.

And while the 10-year yield has come down from its highs, it has only moved lower by about 30%. Hopefully, as things settle, fuel prices and rates will settle too.

We are now just over one month into summer, and the home buying season continues.

Cotality posted its May home price insights, showing prices up 0.6%. They are also forecasting 4.8% appreciation over the year ahead.

This week, we get the Fed minutes.

And unfortunately, we are also watching missile strikes near the Strait of Hormuz.

The market is watching, rates are watching — and so are we.

InterestRates

06/30/2026

Happy Tuesday... Here we go!

Oil keeps sliding and is now trading below $70 a barrel — and that matters.

Last week’s inflation report came in hotter, with May PCE up 0.4% and year-over-year inflation moving from 3.8% to 4.1%. Normally, that would get the market’s attention fast. But with oil now moving lower, markets seem to be taking the inflation bump in stride — at least for now.

We also got the final Q1 GDP revision, and the number moved up from 1.6% to 2.1%. Sounds good on the surface, but the details were mixed. Consumer spending was revised lower, and a lot of the growth came from private investment — including continued expansion tied to AI data centers.

On the jobs side, May JOLTS showed 7.6 million job openings, while the quits rate is still sitting near cycle lows. Translation: workers are being more cautious.

Now the focus shifts to this week’s ADP and BLS jobs reports. Those could help shape the next move for rates.

06/16/2026

📊 Weekly Market Snapshot

Seems there’s a U.S.–Iran peace deal this week that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz—and oil is already reacting. Prices have dropped from $100+ to under $80 in about a month.

🏡 Home equity remains strong: $35 trillion total, up $1T year over year.
🚀 Markets are also watching the ripple effects from SpaceX’s massive IPO—strong markets can boost confidence (and housing demand).

👀 Next up: Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting as Chair this Wednesday.

06/02/2026

Good day everyone! Have to say, graduations are in full swing here and tons going on. At the same time, stats keep posting giving us a peek on the consumer and what might happen in housing. Check these stats out:

This week, attention shifts to the labor market. April’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) surprised to the upside, showing 7.6M openings vs. 6.9M expected. At the same time, the quits rate declined to 1.9%, signaling fewer workers voluntarily leaving jobs—often a sign of growing caution in the workforce.

Consumers are feeling pressure. The personal savings rate has dropped to 2.6%, its lowest level since 2008, while delinquencies are rising across credit cards, student loans, and auto loans.

On housing, Fannie Mae’s Q2 survey of 150 economists points to modest appreciation ahead: 1.7% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.8% by 2028.

All eyes now turn to upcoming jobs data—will ADP align with BLS trends?

05/19/2026

📊 This Week’s Market Snapshot

The Strait of Hormuz is still closed, keeping oil prices high and adding to inflation pressure. Recent reports showed both consumer and wholesale inflation trending higher—and mortgage rates are responding.

🏡 Builders are adapting:
• 32% cutting prices
• Avg. reduction: 6%
• 61% using buyer incentives

👔 Big shift ahead: Kevin Warsh steps in as Fed Chair this Friday. For now, markets expect rates to hold steady—but the outlook later this year is still uncertain.

05/12/2026

📈 Weekly Market Check‑In

Peace negotiations remain under pressure, pushing the 10‑year Treasury higher—up from ~3.95% in early March to 4.45% today. Still, markets are eager to reward real progress toward stability.

April CPI rose from 3.3% to 3.8% YoY, with gas prices up 5.4%, keeping cost‑of‑living concerns front and center.

Housing showed resilience: new‑home sales up 7.4% (more affordable builds), existing sales up slightly, and days on market fell to 32.

👀 Ahead: peace‑talk developments and retail sales data.

04/21/2026

📊 Week of April 21, 2026 — Market snapshot in 90 seconds

Ongoing U.S.–Iran negotiations are fueling daily rate volatility, but since late March we’ve seen improvement on the back of easing tensions and weak economic data.

Retail sales jumped 1.7% in March—but with gas prices up 15.5%, consumers may just be paying more, not buying more.

The opportunity? 22% of non‑jumbo mortgages are still above 6%. Lower rates could mean real payment relief.

👀 Middle East headlines will continue to move markets.

03/31/2026

⛽📈 Oil prices are up — and that matters
Higher energy costs can feed inflation, keeping rates in focus.

The market reacted positively as the Fed signaled it may be too soon to hike.

👀 Consumers feel more cautious
🏡 Home prices? Still moving higher
📊 Employment data is next

Big signals ahead.

HousingMarket

03/17/2026

What a ride last week - we know the pressures on the rate world have been fierce. We talked about the impact of oil and inflation - last Friday’s PCE report landed amid rising Middle East tensions. Core PCE edged up from 3.0% to 3.1%, exactly as expected and largely discounted since it reflects January data. The bigger concern is forward‑looking: oil prices are now roughly 40% higher, which could complicate further progress on inflation.

Housing Signals

A key leading indicator — Pending Home Sales — surprised to the upside. February contracts rose 1.8%, stronger than expected. Some markets stood out:

• San Diego: +13%

• Jacksonville, FL: +12%

Builders are responding to affordability challenges. In March, 37% cut prices, and 64% offered buyer incentives.

Ahead This Week

We’ll hear from several central banks, including the Fed. With rising energy costs and another global conflict unfolding, markets will be closely watching what policymakers signal next.

Bottom line: Inflation risks may be re‑emerging, but housing demand continues to show resilience.

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