Tim Dugan, NMLS #459793

Tim Dugan, NMLS #459793 CMG Home Loans NMLS ID # 1820
Equal Housing Opportunity
Branch NMLS ID # 2475579
www.cmghomeloans.com/corporate/licensing

06/02/2026

Good day everyone! Have to say, graduations are in full swing here and tons going on. At the same time, stats keep posting giving us a peek on the consumer and what might happen in housing. Check these stats out:

This week, attention shifts to the labor market. April’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) surprised to the upside, showing 7.6M openings vs. 6.9M expected. At the same time, the quits rate declined to 1.9%, signaling fewer workers voluntarily leaving jobs—often a sign of growing caution in the workforce.

Consumers are feeling pressure. The personal savings rate has dropped to 2.6%, its lowest level since 2008, while delinquencies are rising across credit cards, student loans, and auto loans.

On housing, Fannie Mae’s Q2 survey of 150 economists points to modest appreciation ahead: 1.7% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.8% by 2028.

All eyes now turn to upcoming jobs data—will ADP align with BLS trends?

05/19/2026

📊 This Week’s Market Snapshot

The Strait of Hormuz is still closed, keeping oil prices high and adding to inflation pressure. Recent reports showed both consumer and wholesale inflation trending higher—and mortgage rates are responding.

🏡 Builders are adapting:
• 32% cutting prices
• Avg. reduction: 6%
• 61% using buyer incentives

👔 Big shift ahead: Kevin Warsh steps in as Fed Chair this Friday. For now, markets expect rates to hold steady—but the outlook later this year is still uncertain.

05/12/2026

📈 Weekly Market Check‑In

Peace negotiations remain under pressure, pushing the 10‑year Treasury higher—up from ~3.95% in early March to 4.45% today. Still, markets are eager to reward real progress toward stability.

April CPI rose from 3.3% to 3.8% YoY, with gas prices up 5.4%, keeping cost‑of‑living concerns front and center.

Housing showed resilience: new‑home sales up 7.4% (more affordable builds), existing sales up slightly, and days on market fell to 32.

👀 Ahead: peace‑talk developments and retail sales data.

04/21/2026

📊 Week of April 21, 2026 — Market snapshot in 90 seconds

Ongoing U.S.–Iran negotiations are fueling daily rate volatility, but since late March we’ve seen improvement on the back of easing tensions and weak economic data.

Retail sales jumped 1.7% in March—but with gas prices up 15.5%, consumers may just be paying more, not buying more.

The opportunity? 22% of non‑jumbo mortgages are still above 6%. Lower rates could mean real payment relief.

👀 Middle East headlines will continue to move markets.

03/31/2026

⛽📈 Oil prices are up — and that matters
Higher energy costs can feed inflation, keeping rates in focus.

The market reacted positively as the Fed signaled it may be too soon to hike.

👀 Consumers feel more cautious
🏡 Home prices? Still moving higher
📊 Employment data is next

Big signals ahead.

HousingMarket

03/17/2026

What a ride last week - we know the pressures on the rate world have been fierce. We talked about the impact of oil and inflation - last Friday’s PCE report landed amid rising Middle East tensions. Core PCE edged up from 3.0% to 3.1%, exactly as expected and largely discounted since it reflects January data. The bigger concern is forward‑looking: oil prices are now roughly 40% higher, which could complicate further progress on inflation.

Housing Signals

A key leading indicator — Pending Home Sales — surprised to the upside. February contracts rose 1.8%, stronger than expected. Some markets stood out:

• San Diego: +13%

• Jacksonville, FL: +12%

Builders are responding to affordability challenges. In March, 37% cut prices, and 64% offered buyer incentives.

Ahead This Week

We’ll hear from several central banks, including the Fed. With rising energy costs and another global conflict unfolding, markets will be closely watching what policymakers signal next.

Bottom line: Inflation risks may be re‑emerging, but housing demand continues to show resilience.

03/10/2026

Good day! What a ride, in just a few short days...here’s some market movers...

* The Iran conflict sent oil near $120/barrel as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted. Prices later eased but stayed elevated with G7 considering strategic reserve actions. Higher oil = higher inflation risk = pressure on rates.

* February Existing Home Sales +1.7%, beating expectations. Buyer activity is the strongest in 4 years, homes average 47 days on market, and 34% of buyers are first‑timers.

* All eyes on the PCE report for inflation direction. Meanwhile, disruptions in Hormuz remain one of the largest oil‑supply shocks and could push prices back above $100 if flows don’t resume.

Energy drives inflation. Inflation drives rates. Housing demand still showing resilience.

02/24/2026

Happy Tuesday!

December core PCE came in hotter — rising from 2.8% to 3.0%.

Streaming services like Netflix and Disney+ jumped 19.5% in December — one of the biggest contributors to the inflation bump.

New‑home sales showed momentum, hitting 745,000 in December — one of the strongest paces in nearly four years.

Experts in Fannie Mae’s survey still expect steady appreciation, projecting roughly 15% cumulative growth over the next five years.

Next up: Friday’s PPI report — a key read on producer costs.

02/17/2026

Inflation cooled again — now at 2.4%, even though airline fares jumped 6.5% in January.
The NY Fed’s latest report shows rising stress: higher credit card balances and 90‑day delinquencies hitting new highs.
January’s cold weather slowed home sales (down 8.4%), but affordability is the best it’s been since March 2022.

Big one to watch this week: the Fed’s preferred PCE report on Friday.

02/03/2026

The government shutdown is delaying official jobs data, so all eyes are on tomorrow’s ADP report—could be a market mover. December housing data from Cotality shows price growth finally moderating, giving buyers a bit more breathing room. And with Kevin Warsh nominated for Fed Chair, markets are adjusting expectations on how quickly rates might shift. Quick breakdown in 90 seconds.

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