09/15/2026
🏠 📈 MORTGAGE RATES ARE BACK ABOVE 7%. SO WHAT HAPPENS NOW?
There is A LOT happening in the housing and mortgage markets right now, so let me try to simplify it.
According to HousingWire’s latest Housing Market Tracker, mortgage rates ended last week around 7.12%, after getting as low as 5.99% earlier this year.
❓ WHY DID RATES MOVE BACK UP?
A lot of it has very little to do with housing.
🛢️ The continuing conflict with Iran has helped push oil prices higher.
🔥 Higher energy costs increase inflation concerns.
📈 The bond market has reacted, and the 10-year Treasury yield — one of the biggest influences on mortgage rates — moved over 5% today.
Combine higher oil prices and inflation concerns with a labor market that hasn’t weakened substantially and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy, and you have an environment that has pushed Treasury yields — and mortgage rates — higher.
But here's something interesting…
HousingWire points out that things could actually be WORSE.
Mortgage spreads have improved significantly. If we still had the worst mortgage spreads of 2023, HousingWire estimates mortgage rates would be around 8.31% instead of 7.12%.
🏡 SO WHAT IS 7% DOING TO HOUSING?
It's slowing demand.
📉 Pending sales last week: 56,255
📊 Same week last year: 62,185
🏷️ About 42% of homes are seeing a price reduction before they sell.
Higher rates could also allow inventory to continue building if new listings hold up.
That's difficult for sellers.
👉 But it can create OPPORTUNITY for buyers.
Fewer buyers can mean:
🏠 More homes to choose from
🤝 More negotiating power
💰 More price reductions
💵 More opportunities for seller-paid closing costs
📉 Opportunities to negotiate a rate buydown
⚔️ Fewer bidding wars
But here's the question I think buyers who are sitting on the sidelines really need to consider:
⏳ WHAT IF RATES DON'T COME DOWN?
I hear it all the time:
"I'm just going to wait until rates come back down."
Okay.
Come down to what? And when?
Nobody knows.
Could rates fall? Absolutely.
But what if mortgage rates spend the next couple of years bouncing around somewhere near where they are today instead of returning to the ultra-low rates people remember?
That's a VERY different conversation.
⚠️ Because waiting isn't free.
If you wait two or three years for a rate that never arrives:
💸 You may spend those years paying rent instead of reducing your own mortgage balance.
📈 You may miss whatever home-price appreciation occurs.
🏡 You miss the equity you could have been building.
⏰ And you've delayed homeownership waiting for something neither you, I nor any economist can predict with certainty.
But let's look at the other possibility…
📉 WHAT IF RATES DO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY?
Great!
But you're probably not going to be the only buyer who notices.
Lower rates could bring thousands of sidelined buyers back into the market.
🔥 Competition could increase.
🏷️ Sellers could regain negotiating power.
💰 Price reductions could become less common.
🤝 Seller concessions could become harder to get.
That's why buyers really need to think about THREE scenarios, not just one:
📉 Rates fall.
➡️ Rates stay roughly where they are.
📈 Rates go higher.
Building your entire homebuying decision around only the first scenario isn't really a strategy.
🎯 DON'T TRY TO TIME THE HOUSING MARKET. BUILD A HOUSING STRATEGY.
I'm certainly not suggesting everyone should buy a house today. For some families, waiting absolutely makes sense.
But if you're financially ready, plan to own the home for a reasonable period of time, and can comfortably afford the payment, don't automatically assume waiting for a lower rate will produce a better financial outcome.
Today's higher-rate environment may offer something a lower-rate market won't:
💥 LESS COMPETITION + MORE NEGOTIATING LEVERAGE.
✅ Negotiate the price.
✅ Ask for closing costs.
✅ Explore seller-funded rate buydowns.
✅ Buy the right house at a payment you can afford TODAY.
And if rates eventually give you an opportunity to refinance? Great.
If they don't, you bought something you could afford without depending on a future rate prediction to make the numbers work.
💡 The lowest mortgage rate and the best opportunity to buy a home don't necessarily happen at the same time.
That's the conversation I think buyers should be having right now.
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