Cory Ure - Guaranteed Rate Inc - NMLS 255282

05/21/2026

Bonds started the day in fairly forgettable and slightly weaker fashion after overnight headlines suggested that the disposition of Iran's nuclear material remains a sticking point. Bonds were flat at weaker levels all morning. Then, just after 1pm, a different headline suggested a "draft agreement" was expected to be announced in a matter of hours. It listed several bullet points, but ironically, nuclear material was not on the list. Nonetheless, the bond market rallied into positive territory rather easily. As much of a head-scratcher as that is (why get excited if the nuclear sticking point remains?), there's no question about the reaction function with oil prices perfectly matching the bond yield move.

Today's Market Summary Report

05/19/2026

Ever since the initial 2 week ceasefire was announced in the Iran war, the bond market has adhered to trend channels that align with either de-escalation or re-escalation sentiment. Nothing too complicated here: if sentiment is trending in favor of peace, bonds have rallied. If sentiment is deteriorating, bonds have sold off. There was a temporary diversion as traders waited to see if last week's China summit would be a catalyst for a shift. When the summit failed to deliver, yields jumped back in line with the re-escalation trend. Now this morning, they're already challenging the bearish boundary of that trend WITHOUT any new justification from an oil price spike, stock market rout, or any new news on the war. In other words, bonds are telling politicians to get serious about ending the war or face increasingly dire consequences.

Ever since the initial 2 week ceasefire was announced in the Iran war, the bond market has adhered to trend channels that align with either de-escalation or re-escalation sentiment. Nothing too compli...

05/12/2026

This morning's Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in slightly hotter than expected with core inflation running 2.8% annual vs 2.7% forecasts and overall inflation at 3.8% vs 3.7%. Bonds have traded both ways after the data, but after 20 minutes, yields were actually LOWER by a hair. What gives? We know traders are trading the data based on volume. The stalemate could have to do with core goods (a proxy for tariff-related inflation) moving lower. The Fed has called this category out as a prerequisite for considering rate cuts again. The rest of the data was less friendly but housing played an outsized role. This is actually better for the rate outlook because traders think housing will ultimately trend lower over time. That said, the non-housing metric (supercore, .454% monthly and 3.32% annually) remains far too high for a rate cut discussion to be on the table for the foreseeable future.

This morning's Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in slightly hotter than expected with core inflation running 2.8% annual vs 2.7% forecasts and overall inflation at 3.8% vs 3.7%. Bonds have traded both ...

05/08/2026

Wednesday ended up being the most interesting day of the week for rate movement thanks to headlines suggesting The U.S. and Iran were close to signing a one page memo to end the war.

Wednesday ended up being the most interesting day of the week for rate movement thanks to headlines suggesting The U.S. and Iran were close to signing a one page memo to end the war.

04/25/2026

If there were a movie about mortgage rates, this week would be the part where they say "it's quiet... almost TOO quiet." Case in point: Mortgage News Daily's daily mortgage rate index has held inside a range of 0.04% since last Tuesday. This kind of thing happens only several times a year.

If there were a movie about mortgage rates, this week would be the part where they say "it's quiet... almost TOO quiet."

04/24/2026

Mortgage applications surged last week, posting a strong rebound as declining rates and improving market sentiment drove broad-based gains. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 7.9% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending April 17.

Both refinance and purchase activity contributed to the increase, with the Refinance Index rising 6% from the previous week and standing 52% higher than one year ago. Purchase applications showed even stronger momentum, climbing 10% week over week and up 14% on an annual basis — a notable shift after recent softness.

Mortgage applications surged last week, posting a strong rebound as declining rates and improving market sentiment drove broad-based gains. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 7.9% incr...

04/22/2026

Pending Home Sales (signed contracts on existing homes) rose 1.5% from February to March, showing buyers remained active despite higher mortgage rates and signaling ongoing pent-up demand, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

04/09/2026

As has been the recent custom, there were dueling headlines concerning the Iran war today with opposing claims regarding the status of the Israel/Lebanon ceasefire. If that sounds like kind of a stretch when it comes to bond market significance, bond traders agreed. That said, it was still traded to some extent. This resulted in mid-day volatility that took bonds from slightly weaker to slightly stronger territory, and then back to being roughly unchanged. Econ data was a relative non-event in the morning, but Friday's data has a slightly better chance of garnering a response.

Today's Market Summary Report

04/07/2026

VA guidelines protect the transaction-they don't work against it.
When structured right, it's a smooth experience for everyone involved.
Call me today and let's make your VA deals work the way they should.

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04/06/2026

It's not the loan-it's the ex*****on.
With the right process, VA timelines move just as fast as anything else.
Work with me and let's keep your deals moving.

http://rate.com/coryure