Cory Ure - Guaranteed Rate Inc - NMLS 255282

08/14/2026

Rates may still be elevated in a general sense, but by the end of the week, they were as low as they've been since July 17th. If we have one thing to thank, it was this week's inflation data.

Rates may still be elevated in a general sense, but by the end of the week, they were as low as they've been since July 17th. If we have one thing to thank, it was this week's inflation data. Thing...

08/07/2026

Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) FELL 23k versus an 80k forecast. Last month was revised down as well. From a traditional market-watching perspective, this is pure rally fuel. Indeed, bonds are rallying sharply so far. Let's hope it sticks. Why wouldn't it?

Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) FELL 23k versus an 80k forecast.  Last month was revised down as well. From a traditional market-watching perspective, this is pure rally fuel. Indeed, bonds are rallying s...

08/04/2026

Home price appreciation remained modest in May, according to data from both FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. Although both reports showed annual price growth improving slightly from April, appreciation continued to trail inflation, underscoring a housing market where elevated mortgage rates, affordability pressures, and uneven regional performance continue to limit broader price gains.

FHFA reported that U.S. house prices increased 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, reversing April's 0.1% decline. On an annual basis, home prices were 2.2% higher than a year earlier, up slightly from the 2.0% pace reported in April. While the monthly rebound suggests prices remain resilient, annual appreciation continues to run well below the rapid gains seen during the post-pandemic housing boom.

Home price appreciation remained modest in May, according to data from both FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices . Although both reports showed annual price growth improvin...

07/29/2026

New home sales rebounded modestly in June, recovering some of the previous month's decline, though activity remained below year-ago levels as elevated mortgage rates and affordability challenges continued to weigh on demand. According to the latest Census Bureau and HUD data, sales of new single-family homes rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 628,000, up 1.6% from May but 5.6% lower than one year earlier.

In the bigger picture, this sector has been broadly flat ever since the post-covid volatility died down in early 2023.

New home sales rebounded modestly in June, recovering some of the previous month's decline, though activity remained below year-ago levels as elevated mortgage rates and affordability challenges con...

07/14/2026

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07/10/2026

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05/21/2026

Bonds started the day in fairly forgettable and slightly weaker fashion after overnight headlines suggested that the disposition of Iran's nuclear material remains a sticking point. Bonds were flat at weaker levels all morning. Then, just after 1pm, a different headline suggested a "draft agreement" was expected to be announced in a matter of hours. It listed several bullet points, but ironically, nuclear material was not on the list. Nonetheless, the bond market rallied into positive territory rather easily. As much of a head-scratcher as that is (why get excited if the nuclear sticking point remains?), there's no question about the reaction function with oil prices perfectly matching the bond yield move.

Today's Market Summary Report

05/19/2026

Ever since the initial 2 week ceasefire was announced in the Iran war, the bond market has adhered to trend channels that align with either de-escalation or re-escalation sentiment. Nothing too complicated here: if sentiment is trending in favor of peace, bonds have rallied. If sentiment is deteriorating, bonds have sold off. There was a temporary diversion as traders waited to see if last week's China summit would be a catalyst for a shift. When the summit failed to deliver, yields jumped back in line with the re-escalation trend. Now this morning, they're already challenging the bearish boundary of that trend WITHOUT any new justification from an oil price spike, stock market rout, or any new news on the war. In other words, bonds are telling politicians to get serious about ending the war or face increasingly dire consequences.

Ever since the initial 2 week ceasefire was announced in the Iran war, the bond market has adhered to trend channels that align with either de-escalation or re-escalation sentiment. Nothing too compli...

05/12/2026

This morning's Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in slightly hotter than expected with core inflation running 2.8% annual vs 2.7% forecasts and overall inflation at 3.8% vs 3.7%. Bonds have traded both ways after the data, but after 20 minutes, yields were actually LOWER by a hair. What gives? We know traders are trading the data based on volume. The stalemate could have to do with core goods (a proxy for tariff-related inflation) moving lower. The Fed has called this category out as a prerequisite for considering rate cuts again. The rest of the data was less friendly but housing played an outsized role. This is actually better for the rate outlook because traders think housing will ultimately trend lower over time. That said, the non-housing metric (supercore, .454% monthly and 3.32% annually) remains far too high for a rate cut discussion to be on the table for the foreseeable future.

This morning's Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in slightly hotter than expected with core inflation running 2.8% annual vs 2.7% forecasts and overall inflation at 3.8% vs 3.7%. Bonds have traded both ...

05/08/2026

Wednesday ended up being the most interesting day of the week for rate movement thanks to headlines suggesting The U.S. and Iran were close to signing a one page memo to end the war.

Wednesday ended up being the most interesting day of the week for rate movement thanks to headlines suggesting The U.S. and Iran were close to signing a one page memo to end the war.