Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Home
United States
San Francisco, CA
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Serving the western U.S. with a mission to advance the nation’s monetary, financial, and payment systems to build a stronger economy for all Americans.

09/03/2026

The U.S. economy continues to expand at a solid pace, supported by stronger labor productivity. In this SF FedViews, Research Advisor Huiyu Li examines inflation, labor market conditions, market expectations of the policy rate, productivity, and the role of AI in the economy. https://sffed.us/4xEFxo9

09/02/2026

The latest Twelfth District Beige Book describes regional economic activity as little changed during the July to mid-August reporting period. sffed.us/beigebook

Employers largely maintained employment levels, and wages were up slightly. Prices rose modestly, driven by elevated oil prices, tariffs, and higher input costs. Retail sales were stable, while activity in consumer and business services eased slightly. Residential real estate activity declined somewhat, while commercial real estate activity was similar to the prior reporting period. Overall lending activity was stable. Contacts maintained a generally soft economic outlook, with similar sentiment to the prior period.

08/31/2026

Recent disruptions in global energy markets have raised the price of gasoline and made the future path more uncertain. But how do inflation expectations and uncertainty about future inflation move with changes with gas price expectations? https://sffed.us/3UsgTZa

A new Economic Letter finds a modest but asymmetric relationship between households’ outlook for gas price growth and their inflation expectations. Upward revisions are associated with higher inflation expectations and greater uncertainty, while downward revisions have little relationship with inflation expectations and a smaller increase in uncertainty. The link is strongest among lower-income households.

08/26/2026

The latest personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation charts are available. https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/data-and-indicators/pce-inflation-contributions-from-goods-and-services/

PCE inflation contributions from goods and services provides monthly updates on price changes for the broad categories of goods and services that U.S. households consume, as measured by personal consumption expenditures inflation.

The San Francisco Fed monitors PCE inflation to help achieve the Fed system's maximum employment and price stability goals.

08/24/2026

The U.S. unemployment rate has trended down for decades, falling from 7.8% in 1976 to 4.8% in 2024. But what's behind this decline? https://sffed.us/4gpojUd

A new Economic Letter finds that about half the decline reflects demographic shifts toward a more educated and older workforce—groups with traditionally lower unemployment rates. The other half comes from newer generations entering the labor force with lower unemployment propensities. Projections suggest continued demographic changes will push trend unemployment down to about 4.4% over the next 20 years.

08/17/2026

The natural rate of interest is an essential benchmark for gauging the economy's health and guiding monetary policy decisions, but empirical estimates of it are imprecise and volatile. https://sffed.us/4zl2jm9

A new Economic Letter explores a medium-run measure that captures persistent economic pressures while avoiding excessive short-term noise. The analysis finds this approach could help the Fed stabilize inflation and achieve maximum employment more effectively than relying on short-run or long-run estimates alone.

08/10/2026

The stock-bond correlation recently flipped from positive to negative after two decades, suggesting that the perceived source of risk to the economy has shifted from demand shocks towards supply shocks. https://sffed.us/45f1bmh
A new Economic Letter examines how correlations between stocks, bonds, and oil prices reveal this shift. In line with this evidence, financial market pricing now indicates that elevated oil prices and potential inflation are prominent sources of risk.

08/07/2026

August 8 is National Dollar Day! Ever wonder how currency stays in circulation? The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco plays a vital role in keeping cash flowing through the Twelfth District. From checking quality to distributing fresh bills, our five cash processing facilities work every day to ensure currency that is genuine and fit for commerce reaches your community.

08/05/2026

The latest regional indicators for labor markets and prices are available:
https://sffed.us/4k01FCy

The San Francisco Fed monitors regional economic indicators to help achieve the Fed system's maximum employment and price stability goals.

Share this post to help your network find the latest on labor market conditions, prices, and earnings across the U.S. and within the 12th District.

Address

101 Market Street
San Francisco, CA
94105

Telephone

+14159742000

Website

http://frbsf.org/

Alerts

Be the first to know and let us send you an email when Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco posts news and promotions. Your email address will not be used for any other purpose, and you can unsubscribe at any time.

Want your business to be the top-listed Finance Company in San Francisco?