07/08/2021
Fears of less economic growth, as the great reopening is fizzling has pushed yields down to the lowest levels since mid-February. We are also seeing less inflation and less policy response (which stocks don't like). Lastly, the U.S. bond market is getting a familiar tailwind of foreign investment as our 10-year Note at 1.29% outshines what is happening in Germany and Japan.
Stocks are lower with the decline coming a day after the S&P and NASDAQ closed at fresh record high levels - so the decline must be taken in stride. Economic data has been soft of late and it's normal for investors to cash in some chips with stocks at record levels.
The 10-year yield slid to 1.25% this morning just above its 200-day Moving Average of 1.23%. So what is the bond market telling us? It is signaling that investors feel that inflation will be transitory and have now fully joined Fed Chair Powell's camp that there will be just temporary inflation pressures. The 10-year yield is back up to 1.28% since trading near the 200-day MA. While your competition is parading around suggesting rates are going lower still (and they might), but it won't happen if the 200-day MA holds yields up. At the same time, take a peek at the MBS chart on the MMG website, the long upper "wick" on today's Candle already shows prices off their best levels.
Remind clients that markets tend to overshoot to both the upside and downside ... meaning the current decline in rates may prove fleeting. Your clients may benefit from even lower rates, however, they will need you to protect them and lock should the reversal from the best levels continues.
The Fed will be purchasing up to $5.2446B in Mortgage Bonds today. There are two operations at 10:00 - 10:20 a.m. ET and 11:00 - 11:20 a.m. ET.
Technically, the benchmark FNMA 2% 30-yr coupon closed above the "Wall" at $101.50 yesterday and appears on pace for a two-day close, which is good. However, the long upper wick with prices already 30bp off the highs has our attention. Furthermore, the 10-year yield bouncing back up to near 1.30% after touching 1.25% also has our attention
Start the day floating most files and let's see if bonds can revisit the best levels of the day. Should prices fade lower - you will be hearing from us with a lock alert - at least on files where you can't afford to lose pricing.
For our money - we think it is wise to get more of your pipeline ready to lock in case this move lower in yield does prove fleeting.