11/03/2026
Tuesday markets update, in plain English 📊
It's jobs week, and this morning's JOLTS report came in stronger than expected: job openings jumped to 7.52 million in September, well above the 7.1 million forecast. Stocks are up and Mortgage Bonds are a bit lower, so there's some upward pressure on rates today.
But the reports that move rates most are still ahead — ADP tomorrow, and the big jobs report on Friday.
It's also Election Day. Prediction markets point to gridlock in Congress, which could actually help bonds: less new spending means less debt for the Treasury to sell. Tomorrow the Treasury shares its borrowing plan, and if it issues less long-term debt, that could help the 10-year — and mortgage rates — too.
Right now, the 10-year Treasury is holding just under 5%, the level everyone's watching. If it breaks above 5%, mortgage rates tend to follow higher.
Thinking about buying or refinancing? DM me "RATES" and I'll send you today's numbers.