09/04/2026
Non Farm Payrolls revealed more hiring than expected in August. 162k jobs were added in the month vs 55k mean estimate. July payrolls were revised higher to 21k from -23k, a net gain of 44k. With the massive 4.1 standard deviation beat I started wondering how often the mean Wall Street estimate of Non Farm Payrolls was close to or equal to the actual number. Since the August 2024 jobs report, only three times has the actual number been within 1 standard deviation of the mean estimate. The average standard deviation is 3.6. In 13 of the last 25 reports the actual number has been either higher than the max estimate or lower than the minimum estimate. It seems forecasting jobs is a difficult task, but when the number beats (or falls short of) the mean estimate meaningfully, the market reacts. Today’s reaction was a move higher in interest rates coupled with increasing odds of a rate hike in September. The meeting on September 16th now holds a 60% chance of a rate hike. It’s not very often of late that we go into a Fed meeting without knowing what the Fed will do. Next Thursday’s PPI report and Friday’s CPI report will play a big part in the Fed’s decision of hike vs hold, with the market leaning hike today.