08/01/2025
📣📈QUICK UPDATE ON MORTGAGES FROM THE FED AND JOBS NUMBERS THIS WEEK!
08/01/2025
Market Update 8/1/2025:
MBS is trading up from close, the Dow is down -543 points, and the S&P 500 is down -90 points this morning.
Currently, the futures market is pricing in an 81.9% probability of a 25 bps rate cut during the September 17th FOMC meeting and a 57.8% chance of an additional 25 bps rate cut during the October 29th meeting (CME FedWatch Tool).
Yesterday, MBS closed relatively flat as the market prepared for this morning’s Nonfarm Payrolls Report. This morning, NFP disappointed (+73K Actual vs +106K Forecast), and the Unemployment Rate ticked up month-over-month (4.2% July vs 4.1% June), strong evidence that the job market is softening. On another front, June Nonfarm Payrolls was revised significantly downward to just +14K from +147K, another strongly bearish sign for US labor. Additionally, the Private NFP significantly disappointed, and the Labor Force Participation Rate declined for the third consecutive month.
The bearish labor figures and downward revisions triggered a hugely bullish response in bonds, as futures are now pricing in an over 80% likelihood of a 25 bps rate cut in September, and over 50% likelihood of an additional 25 bps rate cut in October.
Additionally, the ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices as well as the University of Michigan Inflation, Expectations, and Sentiment surveys came in largely bearish, further contributing to this morning’s bond market rally.
Currently, MBS is trading higher from where we released yesterday’s pricing.
There is no Fedspeak scheduled for today.
- Courtesy of Bryan Bjerk, FIMC