05/18/2026
The narrative out there right now is that inventory is “coming back”… and people are starting to hesitate.
Let’s slow that down for a second and actually look at what the data is telling us.
Yes, inventory has improved slightly. According to the National Association of Realtors, we’ve seen existing home inventory rise to roughly 1.1 to 1.2 million homes, which is up from the historic lows we saw during 2021 and 2022.
But here’s the part most people are missing…
Pre pandemic, a normal market carried 1.8 to 2.2 million homes for sale.
So even with this “increase,” we are still sitting well below historical norms. In plain English: supply is still tight.
Now let’s talk about demand.
Existing home sales are still running at an annual pace of roughly 4 million plus transactions. That’s not a frozen market. That’s millions of buyers actively moving, buying, and making decisions right now.
So yes, there is activity. There is movement. There are real opportunities happening every single day.
Here’s where it gets interesting…
Because rates are sitting where they are today, a lot of buyers are still on the sidelines.
That hesitation is actually creating leverage for the buyers who are in the market right now.
We’re seeing
• Seller concessions
• Rate buydowns
• Negotiated closing costs
• More flexible deal structures
That’s not something you see in a fully competitive, overheated market.
Now fast forward.
The moment rates dip below that psychological 6 percent range, history tells us what happens next. Mortgage applications surge. Demand comes rushing back. Inventory gets absorbed quickly.
And when that happens?
Prices don’t wait around. They move.
At that point, buyers aren’t negotiating… they’re competing. And often chasing.
So the real question isn’t “Is inventory up?”
The better question is
Do you want to buy when you have leverage… or when you have competition?
There are some incredibly strategic programs right now, including temporary buydowns and structured financing options, that allow buyers to step in today, control their payment, and give themselves time to refinance if and when the market sh