10/31/2025
Why mortgage rates went up today even though the Fed cut rates:
Mortgage rates don’t move based on the Federal Reserve’s short-term rate directly. They’re driven by the bond market, specifically the prices investors are willing to pay for mortgage-backed securities (MBS). When MBS prices rise, mortgage rates fall. When MBS prices fall, mortgage rates go up.
That’s exactly what happened today. About an hour before the Fed meeting ended, MBS prices started dropping and continued falling through the afternoon and ending down sharply on the day. This means lenders had to reprice for higher rates.
The Fed did cut short-term rates by 0.25% as expected and said it will stop shrinking its balance sheet in December. Normally both would be good news for mortgage rates. But during the press conference Chair Powell said another rate cut in December is "not a foregone conclusion." That comment caught investors off guard, as they had been expecting at least one more cut this year.
When markets believe fewer rate cuts are coming, investors demand higher yields on longer-term bonds (like those tied to mortgages). That’s why mortgage rates actually moved higher even though the Fed just lowered rates today.