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Mortgages By Sam Tolisano, Rye, NY (2026)

08/31/2026

Market Update

Week of August 24, 2026 in Review
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized the need for continued progress on inflation, but stopped short of committing to a September rate hike. Housing data showed home prices holding up even as sales slowed. Here's what you need to know.

Warsh Signals Inflation Remains a Top Concern
New Home Sales Slow in July
Home Prices Build on Recent Gains
Economic Snapshot: GDP and Unemployment

Warsh Signals Inflation Remains a Top Concern
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium was a major focus for markets on Friday.

New Home Sales Slow in July
New home sales fell 10.5% from June to July, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000 homes. That was below expectations, although June's sales were revised up by 50,000 to a 678,000 annualized pace.

Home Prices Build on Recent Gains
After solid gains in March, April and May, national home prices rose another 0.4% in June, according to the Case-Shiller Index.

Economic Snapshot: GDP and Unemployment
The latest estimate of second quarter GDP shows the economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.5%, unchanged from the initial estimate and down from 2.1% in the first quarter.

What to Look for This Week
Labor market data will take the spotlight this week. Job openings are due on Tuesday, followed by private sector payrolls on Wednesday and weekly jobless claims on Thursday. The week wraps up with Friday's closely watched employment report, which will include nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.

Sam Tolisano
Your Mortgage Professional
MVI Mortgages
Vice President
Direct line 718 991 7789
fax 914 992 7105
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07/30/2026

Weekly Market Review

New home sales came in stronger than expected, home prices continued to appreciate, and geopolitical tensions kept oil markets volatile. Here's what you need to know.

June New Home Sales Top Expectations
Home Equity Remains a Key Wealth Building Tool
Geopolitical Risks Keep Oil Markets on Edge
Low Jobless Claims May Not Tell the Full Story
After two consecutive monthly declines, new home sales rebounded in June, rising 1.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 628,000 homes.

Home Equity Remains a Key Wealth Building Tool

Turning to price trends, U.S. home prices increased 0.26% from June to July, according to ICE's latest Home Price Index report, bringing year-over-year appreciation to 1.7%.

Geopolitical Risks Keep Oil Markets on Edge

On July 18, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright noted that approximately 14 million barrels of crude oil per day were still moving through the Middle East – about half through the Strait of Hormuz and the other half via alternative shipping routes, including Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline to the Red Sea.

Low Jobless Claims May Not Tell the Full Story

After remaining relatively stable around 209,000 to 217,000 over the last month, new weekly unemployment claims fell to 187,000, which is the lowest level since 1969.

What to Look for This Week

After a relatively quiet week, the economic calendar heats up with several key events. On Tuesday, we'll get home price data from Case-Shiller and the FHFA, while the Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day policy meeting. The main event comes Wednesday afternoon, when the Fed announces its latest interest rate decision.

Thursday brings another round of potentially market-moving data, including the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report, the first estimate of second quarter GDP, and weekly jobless claims.

07/20/2026

Week of July 13, 2026 in Review
June brought some welcome inflation news, while housing market updates were mixed. Construction activity rebounded, but home sales declined. Here are the key takeaways.

Inflation Comes in Below Expectations
New Home Construction Rebounds, but Headwinds Remain
Pending Home Sales Slow in June
Quick Look: Consumer Spending and Unemployment
Inflation Comes in Below Expectations
June brought encouraging inflation news, with both consumer and wholesale prices coming in lower than expected.

New Home Construction Rebounds, but Headwinds Remain
Housing starts rebounded in June, rising 19% after dropping to a six-year low in May. The May decline appears to have been an outlier, with June's rebound coming in above expectations.

Pending Home Sales Slow in June
Pending home sales, which track signed contracts on existing homes, declined 5.4% from May to June, ending a four-month streak of gains.

Quick Look: Consumer Spending and Unemployment
Retail sales increased 0.2% in June, in line with expectations. Lower gas prices led to a decline in gas station sales, which pulled down the overall figure. However, excluding gasoline purchases, sales rose a stronger 0.7%, showing that consumer activity remains resilient.

The labor market continues to show mixed signals. New unemployment claims remain relatively low at around 208,000, but they may not capture the full picture as some workers who lose jobs are turning to freelance or gig work rather than filing for benefits. Meanwhile, continuing unemployment claims remain elevated at 1.81 million, suggesting it is taking longer for some job seekers to find new employment.

What to Look for This Week
It's a quieter week for economic news, with Thursday's jobless claims report and Friday's June New Home Sales data serving as the key highlights

07/13/2026

Past week market update

Week of July 6, 2026 , 2026 in Review

Existing home sales slipped slightly in June, while home prices continued their seasonal upswing. Here are the key takeaways.

Existing Home Sales Ease in June
Homeownership Continues to Build Wealth
Jobless Claims Snapshot

Existing Home Sales Ease in June

After rising for two consecutive months, existing home sales slipped 2.4% from May to June, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million homes.

Homeownership Continues to Build Wealth

Home prices increased 0.6% from April to May and are 0.8% higher than they were a year ago, according to Cotality's latest Home Price Insights report

Jobless Claims Snapshot

New unemployment claims came in at 215,000, holding at roughly the same level for the third straight week.

What to Look for This Week

It's an important week for inflation data, beginning with June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday. Thursday brings Retail Sales, weekly Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, and home builder confidence. More housing news follows Friday with June Housing Starts and Building Permits.

06/22/2026

WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE

Markets got a dose of good news as the United States and Iran signed an agreement to extend their ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns about global energy supplies. Meanwhile, the Fed held rates steady in Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Chair, and housing data was mixed. Here are some key takeaways.

Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged
Housing Construction Slows as Builders Remain Cautious
Pending Home Sales Continue to Rise
Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged

In Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair, the Federal Reserve unanimously voted to leave its benchmark Federal Funds Rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%.

Housing Construction Slows as Builders Remain Cautious

The pace of new home construction slowed sharply in May.

Pending Home Sales Continue to Rise

Pending home sales, a key measure of signed contracts on existing homes, rose 3.8% from April to May, exceeding expectations and marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase.

Economic Snapshot: Consumer Spending and Jobless Claims

Retail sales increased 0.9% in May, significantly exceeding economists' expectations. Sales also remained stronger than expected after excluding gasoline purchases, suggesting the gain was driven by broader consumer spending rather than simply higher gas prices at the pump.

On the labor side, new unemployment claims remain relatively low at about 226,000. However, that number may not fully capture labor market strain, as some displaced workers are turning to freelance or gig work instead of filing for benefits.

Meanwhile, continuing unemployment claims stayed elevated at 1.81 million, suggesting many job seekers are taking longer to find new employment.

What to Look for This Week

More housing news arrives Wednesday with the release of May's New Home Sales report. On Thursday, markets will focus on several key economic updates, including the Fed's preferred inflation measure, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the final reading of first quarter GDP, and the latest jobless claims data.

Markets will also be watching whether the United States and Iran's agreement to extend their ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz helps ease pressure on energy prices, which could support a more favorable inflation outlook in the months ahead.

06/11/2026

Week of June 1, 2026 in Review

Labor market data paints a resilient picture, while home price forecasts highlight the long-term opportunity in homeownership. Here are the key takeaways.

Jobs Report Surprises to the Upside
ADP Report Signals Broader Hiring Gains
Additional Labor Data Supports a Resilient Outlook
Homeownership's Long-Term Value on Display

Jobs Report Surprises to the Upside

The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report showed stronger-than-expected job growth in May.

ADP Report Signals Broader Hiring Gains

Private payroll data from ADP offered a similar signal to the government jobs report.

Additional Labor Data Supports a Resilient Outlook

Broader labor market indicators released last week help round out the picture.

Homeownership's Long-Term Value on Display

Home prices rose 0.4% from March to April and were also 0.3% higher than a year ago, according to Cotality's latest Home Price Insights report.

What to Look for This Week

Existing Home Sales data is due on Tuesday, followed by two closely watched inflation reports: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. We'll also get the latest weekly jobless claims on Thursday, providing another snapshot of the labor market.

04/09/2026

More Mortgage News
$875 Billion in Commercial Mortgages Are Coming Due This Year.

According to the MBA's latest survey, 17% of all outstanding commercial mortgages ( ~$875 billion) is set to mature in 2026.

That's down 9% from 2025's $957 billion, but still a massive wall of debt that needs to be addressed.

Property types feeling it most:

• Hotel/motel: 30% of loans maturing in 2026

• Industrial: 23%

• Office: 17%

• Multifamily: 13%

On the capital side:

- Credit companies & warehouse lenders: 29% maturing

- CMBS/CLO/ABS loans: 25%

- Depository institutions: 21%

- ife insurance companies: 10%

- GSEs (Fannie, Freddie, FHA, Ginnie Mae): just 4%

For real estate investors navigating maturities, speed and certainty of capital matter more than ever.

Facing a maturing loan? Don't wait for the clock to run out.

04/09/2026

More mortgage news
$875 Billion in Commercial Mortgages Are Coming Due This Year.

According to the MBA's latest survey, 17% of all outstanding commercial mortgages ( ~$875 billion) is set to mature in 2026.

That's down 9% from 2025's $957 billion, but still a massive wall of debt that needs to be addressed.

Property types feeling it most:

• Hotel/motel: 30% of loans maturing in 2026

• Industrial: 23%

• Office: 17%

• Multifamily: 13%

On the capital side:

- Credit companies & warehouse lenders: 29% maturing

- CMBS/CLO/ABS loans: 25%

- Depository institutions: 21%

- Life insurance companies: 10%

- GSEs (Fannie, Freddie, FHA, Ginnie Mae): just 4%

For real estate investors navigating maturities, speed and certainty of capital matter more than ever.

Facing a maturing loan? Don't wait for the clock to run out.

03/30/2026

A quieter week for economic data, with markets largely driven by uncertainty around the conflict in Iran and swings in oil prices. Meanwhile, the latest labor market reports provided some important signals on hiring trends. Here are the key takeaways.

ADP Signals Sluggish Job Growth
Jobless Claims Hint at Growing Gig Economy

ADP's weekly employment report, which tracks payroll data in near real time, showed that U.S. private employers added an average of 10,000 jobs per week in the four weeks ending March 7.

Initial jobless claims rose slightly by 5,000 to 210,000 in the latest week, still low by historical standards.

Home price data from Case-Shiller and the FHFA will be reported Tuesday, followed by a retail sales update Wednesday.

It's also a big week for labor market news. Reports on job openings arrive Tuesday, followed by private payroll data on Wednesday, weekly unemployment claims on Thursday, and Friday's closely watched jobs report, which includes non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate.

02/17/2026

All

Recent rallying in the bond market has brought the 10 year t bill yields down to 4.05 . This is due to a combination of events including but not limited to:

1.The trump plan to purchase 200 billion worth of 10 year bonds
2 Strong economic numbers
3.Very low inflation numbers below the actual target rate
4 Geopolitical events

Also the below policy change should further drive mortgage rates down

A speech from Fed Governor Bowman yesterday regarding mortgage regulations (the Fed will dial back the restrictive mortgage capital rules imposed on banks, a move that could shift some mortgage market share back to traditional banks and potentially lower borrowing costs)

Keefe on Mortgage Finance

February 16, 2026

Potential Changes to Regulatory Treatment of Mortgage Banking.

Michelle Bowman, Vice Chair of Supervision at the Fed, recently discussed

potential revisions to the regulatory framework that would incentivize banks to

originate and service mortgages. In our view, the proposed changes would make

mortgage lending and servicing more attractive to the banking industry, which has

largely exited or phased out exposure in recent years, given a reduced capital reserve burden

Mortgages By Sam Tolisano

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