Russ Cosolito with Renaissance Home Loans

09/19/2024

🫤 Why Mortgage Rates Haven’t Fallen???

I wanted to share some insights into the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to cut rates and how it ties into their broader economic projections, as well as why mortgage rates haven’t yet fallen in response.

Yesterday’s Fed Action:

The Federal Reserve cut the current Fed Funds Rate of 5.33% by 50 basis points to 4.875%, bringing the target range to 4.75% - 5% from the prior target range of 5.25% - 5.5%

👉Looking ahead, they project additional rate cuts, including:

* 25bp cut on November 7
* 25bp cut on December 18
* A total of 100bp in additional cuts forecasted for 2025

Economic Projections

The Fed will be looking at many economic factors in determining the speed and magnitude of cuts in 2025.

Some of those are:

* Inflation (Core PCE): Currently at 2.6%, the Fed projects it to stay at 2.6% by the end of 2024 and decline to 2.2% by 2025.
* Unemployment: Currently at 4.2%, the Fed expects it to rise slightly to 4.4% by the end of 2024, maintaining that level into 2025.
* GDP Growth: The economy is currently growing at 3%, but the Fed anticipates this will slow to 2% by the end of 2024 and remain at that level in 2025.
Key Takeaways from

👉Jerome Powell’s Press Conference

* No Recession Expected: Powell emphasized that the Fed does not foresee a recession. Both spending and economic growth have remained resilient.
* 50bp Cut as a Signal: Powell made it clear that the 50bp cut should be seen as a sign of the Fed’s commitment to not fall behind the inflation curve, not a cadence that markets should expect moving forward. He stressed that the Fed doesn’t believe they are behind the curve.
* Inflation and Rents: While market rents are starting to decrease, Powell noted that it will take time for these reductions to filter into the broader inflation data, further complicating the path to lower long-term rates.

👉 Why Mortgage Rates Haven’t Fallen 🫤

It is important to remember that the bond market is forward looking and the Federal Reserve rate cuts were already built into the market. We have seen rates come down over the last 4-6 weeks in anticipation of these cuts starting. Even though the Fed is lowering short-term interest rates, mortgage rates are influenced by a broader set of factors.

Some are shown below.

1. Inflation Expectations: Despite the rate cuts, inflation expectations have a significant influence on long-term bond yields, which determine mortgage rates. As long as inflation remains above the Fed’s target, mortgage rates may stay elevated.
2. Quantitative Tightening (QT): The Fed is continuing with its QT program, allowing its balance sheet to roll off. This action puts upward pressure on long-term interest rates, including mortgages, counteracting the effects of the rate cuts.
3. Market Sentiment and Economic Stability: Even though job gains have slowed, the economy is still solid. Investors are cautious about future inflation and economic performance, which keeps the yield on the 10-year Treasury note elevated, a key determinant of mortgage rates.

Looking Ahead

While the Fed has signaled that more rate cuts are on the horizon, it’s important to remember that mortgage rates don’t always move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate. The broader economic outlook—including inflation, employment, and bond market conditions—will continue to play a crucial role in determining where mortgage rates head next.
I hope this explanation clarifies the relationship between the Fed’s actions and mortgage rates. Let me know if you’d like to discuss this further or have any other questions!

05/22/2024

HOMETOWN HERO IMPORTANT ACCOUNCEMENT!
As of July 1st $100m will be allocated again!! PM to see if you qualify

04/30/2024

📣 BUSINESS ONLY BEEN ESTABLISHED FOR 1 YEAR?

👉 Business Bank Statement Loans tailored specifically for self-employed individuals with just 1-year of business history.

This program features:

-Two years of business open NOT required (minimum 12 months)

-Up to 80% LTV Purchase or Up to 75% LTV Cash Out Refinance

- Primary SFR, PUD, and Condo allowed

👀 Short Bankruptcy seasoning

🙌 Only 6 months of required reserves on subject property

AND….

Business funds can be used for down payment, closing costs, and reserves

Shoot me a message for more details.
Russ Cosolito with Renaissance Home Loans
Russ Cosolito Dream Home Advisor - Sutter & Nugent LLC

04/06/2024

𝐇𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐋𝐚𝐰𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐚

Recently I was speaking with someone who wasn't aware of the importance or benefits of having their homestead exemptions in place so I figured I'd list a few tax-saving reasons for those in a similar stance.

Florida’s homestead laws are one of the many attractive features of living in the Sunshine State. Here’s what you need to know about how they work:

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐎𝐮𝐫 𝐇𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐀𝐜𝐭: Due to this long-standing law, homestead properties in Florida will not see an increase of more than 3% a year or CPI (whichever is less) in their taxable value no matter how much the market value of the home increases. This is why someone who has lived in a home in Florida for a long time will have a tax bill far lower than the market value of their home would otherwise dictate.

𝐏𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲: Homeowners can take the savings with them when they move, up to a maximum of $500,000. With portability, a homeowner with $500,000 in portability will see a tax bill about $10,000 a year lower than it would be without it. Portability requires a separate filing that many homeowners don’t realize they have to complete.

𝐇𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐄𝐱𝐞𝐦𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬: Beyond the standard $50,000 homestead exemption, are around two dozen other exemptions. Some of these exemptions can be valuable, including a “Super Senior Long Term Exemption” that completely exempts some senior citizens who have lived in their homes for more than 25 years from having to pay any property taxes at all!!

Remember that timing and proper filing are crucial for maximizing these benefits. If you’re a homeowner in Florida, understanding these laws can help you save money and protect your property. There's also a way to increase your portability and maximize the tax savings on the new home. Thats in itself will pay dividends when working with an experienced Realtor/Mortgage Loan Officer Russ Cosolito Dream Home Advisor - Sutter & Nugent LLC Russ Cosolito with Renaissance Home Loans 🏡🌴

02/19/2024

The February NAHB Housing Market Index just came out. This report measures builder confidence. Anything over 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales and currently has rose 4 points to
48, which was two points above estimates.

The overall index remains in contraction but is up 14
points since the low in November and has been consistently improving!!

All of the internals rose, with the future outlook looking bright ☀️

-Current Sales: rose 4 points to 52 (back in expansion) 🐂
-Future Expectations: rose 3 points to 60 (expansion) 🐂
-Buyer Traffic: rose 4 points to 33 (the highest level since Aug) 🐂

BELOW IS BIG FOR THOSE WANTING NEW CONSTRUCTION

According to the NAHB, "In February, 25% of builders reported cutting home prices, down from
31% in January and 36% in the last two months of 2023.

Meanwhile, the use of sales incentives is
also diminishing. The share of builders offering some form of incentive dropped to 58% in
February, down from 62% in January and the lowest share since last August.”

So builders are reducing incentives that they have been offering to new buyers AND only 25% of builders have reported lowering prices.

All of this indicates that we are about to get back into buying season again and competition is going to get FIERCE 🔥🔥

02/13/2024

CPI data released this morning has inflation coming in hotter than expected This pushes the first anticipated rate cut out further from May initial date to talks of June!

For those sitting on the Fence waiting interest rates have actually increased .25% from the lows established in the beginning of January

Rates no doubt will be heading down in the not to distant future. But the downward trend will be nothing like the fast increase in rates we experienced over the last few years

The slow decline in rates will be calculated and adjusted based off of how the market reacts.

If your in the market to buy don’t try and time rates dropping, or house prices decreasing etc

Remember “Time in the market always beats timing the market”

Russ Cosolito Dream Home Advisor - Sutter & Nugent LLC
Russ Cosolito with Renaissance Home Loans

12/19/2023

1st Time home buyers 5k assistance towards down payment 🎉
Must currently live in the Miami-Ft Laud - West Palm metro area

12/14/2023

Mortgage Rates are dropping after peaking into the 8’s not too long ago 🙌

However should you refinance? Probably not yet….but the time is coming soon 🎉

Just like the stock market it’s very hard to catch the very top or bottom, same with rates. But you don’t want to refinance multiple times on the way down.

The Fed is forecasting it will be looking at cutting rates 3 times next year. This is great news as this is signaling that inflation is getting under control.

With the news and how the markets are reacting I feel we will be back into the 5’s in 2024.

Now for all of those holding off their purchase because of rates buckle up!!!! 🚀🚀

Inventory is still extremely low and with rates drifting back down we might hit the 2nd wave 🔥🔥

Russ Cosolito Dream Home Advisor - Sutter & Nugent LLC 🏠

12/11/2023

In Home Alone who got a bigger beat down? Marv or Harry 🤨

11/23/2023

🍁🏡 Happy Thanksgiving 🍁🏡

As we gather around our tables this Thanksgiving, I’m reminded of the countless joyful moments homes bring into our lives. 🏠💖

This festive season, let’s be grateful for the warmth and love that fills every corner of our homes. From shared laughter in the living room to heartfelt conversations in the kitchen, our homes are where memories are made and cherished. 🍂👨‍👩‍👧‍👦

To all my clients, colleagues, and friends, I extend my warmest wishes for a Thanksgiving filled with happiness and gratitude. May your homes be filled with joy, your hearts with love, and your tables with abundance. 🦃🍽️✨

Thank you for allowing me to be a part of your home journey. Here’s to creating more beautiful memories in the places we cherish the most. Happy Thanksgiving! 🌟🍁

10/26/2023

It’s true, I live where you vacation. Lucky for you, I can assist with your real estate dreams & am ready to assist you in convert them into a reality 🏡 🏝️ 🌊 ☀️

10/22/2023