09/06/2024
In my opinion, whatever happens in the securities markets today will be very closely tied to the jobs report at 8:30 am. Below is prediction info (courtesy of CNBC) about what is expected at 8:30 am. Job losses are increasing as the economy is slowing, but I think it is important to point out that the economy is slowing because the Federal Reserve is intentionally slowing the economy with the last year’s interest rate increases. The good news about the economy being slowed down (on purpose) by the Federal reserve is that the economy is still “massagable”(I think I just created a word) and when inflation has come down to a point that the Fed is comfortable, they can reduce interest rates from the current “restrictive” position to a more normal or “neutral” position. I think that neutral position will be achieved when the Fed gradually reduces the Fed funds rate down .75% or 1.0% lower over the next 6 months, but some argue the Fed should reduce interest rates by a full 2% or more. I believe that even If the Fed allows the US economy to go into a recession (messured by 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP) in order to curb inflation, it will be a mild recession necessary and not a big deal long term for my clients portfolios. I think the more likely scenario is the US avoids a recession and the lower interest rates coming this fall and winter bolster stocks and real estate higher.