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http://www.daecapitalstrategies.com/

DAE Capital Strategies, Roseville, CA (2026)

06/23/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Today's sell-off actually started last night. Overnight the South Korean Kospi index fell 10% led by big drops in the memory semiconductor chip makers ahead of Micron's earnings tomorrow. There has also been talk amongst traders that the "Yen carry trade" where a rise in Japanese bond yields affects the tech stock valuations is potentially beginning to take place. The Nasdaq and S&P sold off today, as pronounced weakness across semiconductor stocks bleed into most everything else. The Nasdaq fell 2 ¼ %, the S&P dropped 1.44%, the Russell was down 0.96%, and the Dow was lower by 0.09%. The VIX jumped 12 ¾ % to 19.4, ahead of Micron's (memory chips) tomorrow. The yield on the 10-year fell to 4.45% despite more chatter of possibly two interest rate increase by years end. Oil continued to fall, nearly 1% today to $73 WTI as shipping activity picks up in the Strait of Hormuz. Interest rate hike fears hit the metals today with silver, the biggest loser down 6%. Crypto was also hit hard down 3-5%. Six of the eleven major sectors finished in the green today. Those sub-sectors bucking the downtrend today were Oncology, Energy Infrastructure, Cloud, Biotech, Cybersecurity, Leisure/Entertainment, and Internet. Earnings of note after the close are from Cerebras Systems, FedEx, and KB Home. One earnings to watch in the morning is from Paychex. Economically, markets will get new home sales data in the morning, but we'll have to see if buying the dip mentality comes back tomorrow ahead of important Ai name reporting earnings and guidance in Micron after the close tomorrow.

As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

06/22/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Stocks opened mostly higher, supported by reports from both sides that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are progressing measurably, while chipmaker stocks showed an extension of recent strength. However, losses across mega-cap stocks outside the semiconductor space quickly widened, pushing the major averages into mostly lower territory, where they traded in a relatively stable range for the remainder of the day. SpaceX also took a big loss down 16% today after a strong week last week. The Russell rose 0.83%, the Dow gained 0.29%, while the S&P fell 0.37%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.33%. The VIX rose 3% as the US/Iran deal still isn't completed and conflicting headlines from Iran continue to pop up. Bond yields rose with the 10-year Treasury closing up at 4.5%. WTI oil fell nearly 2% to $75 after the US authorized Iran to sell its oil. Oils drop contributed to another weak day across the board for metals. Crypto saw losses as well. Seven of the eleven major sectors finished in the green. Those sub-sectors outperforming the Russell today were Memory, Biotech, Oncology, Ai Power, Electrification, Rare Earth Metals, US Industrial tech, Datacenters, Reshoring, Semiconductors, Infrastructure, and Energy Infrastructure. There aren't any earnings of note this afternoon or in the morning. Markets will get manufacturing and services data in the morning to analyze. Overall, today's session was characterized by continued selling pressure across several mega-cap stocks, which obscured otherwise good underlying action. Strength across seven S&P 500 sectors and outperformance from both the Russell 2000 and S&P Mid Cap 400 suggest that investors remained engaged in equities, even as leadership continued to shift beneath the surface.

One More Thing - The Mag 7 down YTD and the 493 up more than 13% YTD is one of the most incredible stories of the year so far.

As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

06/18/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Today's trading day represented a solid rebound from yesterday's FOMC-driven weakness, as investors appeared willing to look past the Fed's more hawkish tone and continue buying into areas of recent strength. Semiconductor stocks once again provided the market's primary leadership, while easing geopolitical tensions and stable oil prices helped broaden participation and support a constructive finish to the week. Today's action featured considerably stronger performances from mega-cap names outside the information technology sector. The Russell 2000 small cap index gained 2.12%, the Nasdaq rose 1.91%, the S&P gained 1.08%, and the Dow was up 0.14%. The VIX plunged 11% to 16. While the 10-year US Treasury yield pulled back from yesterday (4.45%), the 2-year rose again, factoring in that one rate increase by the end of the year. Oil fell to $73 per barrel early in the morning as word of several Saudi ships left the Strait of Hormuz, but it eventually closed at $76. The metals all took big hits lower today on the speculation of that one rate hike and a firmer US dollar. Crypto saw a similar sell-off. Five of the eleven major sectors finished higher on the day. Those sub-sectors outperforming the Russell today were Memory, Semiconductors, Clean Energy, Ai Power, IoT, Homebuilders, Quantum, Ai, Robotics, and Reshoring with many more up 0.25-2%. There aren't any earnings out on Monday. There isn't any economic data of note Monday either. The "triple witching" expiration day drove volume, but to the upside as markets closed near the highs of the day with the S&P closing just above the important 7500 level. Historically, today marks the beginning of what is known as the "June Swoon" where markets begin to tail off into the end of the quarter. With all the other volatility the markets have had leading up to this point and some potential market moving events out of the way, this year may be different. Markets ended the week higher and remained up on the month.

As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

06/17/2026

"Off the Cuff" - After spending the first half of the day drifting slightly higher, stocks turned lower following the June FOMC meeting, which left the federal funds target range unchanged but was interpreted as a more hawkish-than-expected shift in tone during Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting at the helm. I didn't take it that way, but it was a reset of sorts, and the "easing" bias phrase was removed. The statement and projections were read as signaling a higher-for-longer policy stance, prompting a repricing in rates and contributing to the broader risk-off move in equities that only occurred after the press conference ended. There is now a high probability of a ¼ % rate increase by the end of the year. We'll have to see how far oil can fall and how fast lower gas prices can trickle down into the rest of the global goods to get prices lower. The Nasdaq fell 1.35%, the S&P dropped 1.21%, the Russell was down 0.72%, and the Dow was off by 0.98%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose back to 4.48% after the Fed meeting. Oil rose fractionally after President Trump said he could attack Iran again if they don't "behave". Metals were marginally higher across the board while crypto was down 2-3% across the major ones. All eleven major sectors were down. However, there were quite a few sub-sectors that finished in the green today. Those were Memory, Biotech, Semiconductors, Ai Power, Oncology, Defense, Electrification, Modern Warfare, Reshoring, and Nuclear. There aren't any earnings of note this afternoon or tomorrow. Economically, markets will get weekly jobless claims and some regional manufacturing data. Tomorrow is the second time (of four) this year known as triple witching of derivative contracts that can cause volatility all day and especially in the last hour. Markets may be a little edgy after today's Fed interest rate reset, a long weekend, and if the peace deal will actually get signed Friday.

One More Thing - This year is close to halfway over, and the S&P 500 is up a very solid 8 ½ % YTD.

Yet, AAII has seen more bears than bulls so far this year. (This is a contrarian indicator and also a good thing) Bull markets are supposed to be fun, and this one hasn't reached that stage yet.

As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

06/16/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Altogether, today's session reflected a pause in the recent technology-led advance rather than a meaningful deterioration in sentiment. Profit-taking across semiconductor and mega-cap names weighed on the major averages, As tech charted a lower course, the broader market saw some rotational interest that helped soften the tech-inflicted blow on the major averages. Strength in the broader market was once again supported by a retreat in oil prices, as investors remained optimistic that Friday's planned signing of the U.S.-Iran peace agreement will result in a lasting resolution and help keep energy prices contained. The Nasdaq retreated 1.15%, the S&P fell 0.57%, the Russell dropped 0.87%, while the Dow was up 0.64%. The VIX rose 1.3% to 16.4. WTI oil fell over 5% and Brent over 4 ½ % but both were below $80 per barrel after word that the US will allow Iran to start selling oil again immediately after the deal is signed. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.43% ahead of the first press conference from new Fed Chair Warsh tomorrow. Metals were mixed while crypto was down 1% across the board. Seven of the eleven major sectors finished in the green today. Those sub-sectors outperforming and finishing in the green today were Private Equity, Homebuilders, Defense tech, Electrification, Infrastructure, Nuclear, Natural Resources, and Defense. Two earnings reports of note in the morning are from CarMax and Jabil. Markets will get pending home sales early in the morning followed by the press conference from new Fed Chair Warsh later in the morning.

As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

06/15/2026

"Off the Cuff" - The stock market started a holiday-abbreviated week on a sharply higher note as a pullback in oil prices culminated in relatively broad gains and strong leadership from mega-cap and tech names. Yesterday's announcement from President Trump that the U.S. and Iran have reached a peace agreement, which will include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lifting Iran's naval blockade, provided the spark for a broad rally today. The deal is expected to be signed on Friday in Switzerland, and while questions remain around some of the tougher issues, including Iran's nuclear program, the market was satisfied by the progress and the subsequent slide in oil prices. The Nasdaq jumped up 3.07%, the S&P rose 1.65%, the Russell was higher by 0.72%, and the Dow advanced 0.92%. The VIX fell over 8% to 16.2. WTI oil closed $81 per barrel while Brent crude (the rest of the world) fell 4 ½ % to $83 on the signing of the Iran deal. The yield on the 10-year Treasury closed at 4.47% to start the week after the signing of the deal and with one rate hike now priced in for later this year. If oil drops to around $70 and there is a good opportunity for that once the Strait of Hormuz is really open, then I think that rate increase possibility will go away. Seven of the eleven major sectors were lower today with three of the four being defensive and the other energy. Those sub-sectors that outperformed the Nasdaq today were Memory, Quantum, Semiconductors, Ai, Blockchain, Ai Power, Nuclear, and Robotics with many more up 0.25-2.8%. There aren't any earnings today or tomorrow. Economically, tomorrow is also quiet with just ADP employment data, building permits, and housing starts. It was a relatively stable trading day, as a lack of corporate news kept the major averages trading near their opening highs for most of the day. The retreat in oil prices improved sentiment across the market and helped alleviate some inflation and growth concerns, while mega-cap and technology stocks regained their footing after a volatile previous week

One More Thing - As we've noted many times, the market has never peaked for the year in June. This year likely won't be the first.

Yes, stocks peaked on June 2, but we don't think that was the peak, and we've said the whole time that June should still be a good one for the bulls.

As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

06/12/2026

"Offt the Cuff" - The stock market ended a bumpy week on a higher note, with falling oil prices contributing to broad market gains that helped all the major averages finish higher for the week. There was some selling across other mega-cap stocks as well as the space sub-sector following the debut of SpaceX. SpaceX had a solid opening day finishing up roughly 20%. Meanwhile, stocks benefitted from another strong showing across the broader market as oil prices retreated again today with a potential US/Iran deal coming as early as this weekend. The Russell finished up 0.79%, the S&P rose 0.5%, the Nasdaq was higher by 0.31%, and the Dow gained 0.7%. The VIX fell another 9% to 17.6. Oil fell 4% to $84 on a potential Iran deal. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose slightly to 4.47%. The metals all had solid gains across the board ranging from 3-6% as oil continued to fall. Crypto was down across the board again. Looking ahead to next week, markets will be looking for follow through buying, especially if an Iran deal is completed. It is a holiday shortened week with the markets closed on Friday, and it is a large options expiration week that normally creates some extra volatility. Lastly, Tuesday and Wednesday give markets the first Fed meeting and press conference with Chairman Warsh at the helm. No rate change is expected, but markets will be looking for how he addresses inflationary pressures.

One More Thing - Despite all the volatility over the last week, the S&P 500 advance/decline line is still in an uptrend.

As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

06/11/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Stocks opened mostly higher following the PPI report for May, which was hotter than expected at the headline level but also included a downward revision to April's reading. Much like the CPI yesterday. The broader market continued yesterday's trend of solid participation, while semiconductor stocks garnered some buy-the-dip interest after several consecutive weaker sessions. Mid-day, the market made a sharp move higher in the early afternoon after President Trump said tonight's round of strikes against Iran had been called off due to progress in finalizing a deal. CBS News later reported that "a memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran is likely to be signed early next week, paving the way for further negotiations on a long-term deal." It was a productive day for stocks, with the retreat in oil prices helping transform an already good session into a broad-based rally. The major averages now enter the final session of the week mostly higher, while investors turn their attention to Friday's highly anticipated SpaceX IPO. The Russell 2000 small cap index gained 3.02%, the Nasdaq was up 2.54%, the S&P rose 1.75%, and the Dow advanced 1.86%. The VIX plunged 12 ½ % back under 20 to 19.4. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.45% after the drop in oil prices. WTI oil fell 2% to $85 while Brent crude dropped 4% on the Iran news. Gold and the rest of the metals saw nice gains. Even crypto had very solid gains of 2-4%. Eight of the eleven major sectors were higher, and the three downers were all of the defensive variety. There were too many sub-sectors that outperformed the Russell today, but the ranges above the Russell were between 3 and 13 ½ %. Earnings of note after the close are from Adobe, Lennar, and RH. There are no earnings tomorrow. Tomorrow will be all about the SpaceX IPO and see what follow through buying could take place with an Iran deal happening in the coming few days.

06/10/2026

"Off the Cuff" - The major averages finished lower today, with another abrupt reversal across technology stocks proving too much for the market to overcome despite opening strength that followed a relatively benign inflation report. Rising oil prices and renewed geopolitical concerns added to the pressure. Stocks showed resilience at the open, despite a headline CPI inflation figure at its highest level since April 2023, but the core inflation number was lower from last month. The major averages even spent some time in positive territory as technology stocks oscillated through a choppy opening stretch. Like previous session retreats, today's selloff came without a clear catalyst. There continues to be chatter about funds and traders raising capital from tech stock winner to be able to buy SpaceX. The Nasdaq once again saw a technical bounce off of the 25,000 level which is encouraging. The S&P however, looks like it could find technical support about 200 points lower at 7000. The Nasdaq and Russell were both lower by 1.98%, the S&P lost 1.62%, and the Dow fell 1.87%. The VIX jumped nearly 12% to 22 after the escalation in strikes on Iran. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.55%. WTI oil spiked 4% to nearly $92 with the Iran deal not done and now further strikes from the US and Iran. Metals took solid losses across the board with any Iran deal looking like it'll be drug out. Crypto was also lower across the board. Just three of the eleven major sectors were in the green today (Energy, Staples, Real Estate) with a decidedly defensive slant. Energy Infrastructure was the lone sub-sector of note to finish up on the day. The one earnings report of note this afternoon is from Oracle. Important economic data out tomorrow is the ECB (European Central Bank) interest rate decision, weekly jobless claims, and the PPI (wholesale) inflation data. Overall, today's session reinforced the market's recent struggle to sustain upside momentum in technology stocks after an extended rally. Unlike yesterday's session, the major averages were left largely without support from the broader market, which was further pressured by rising oil prices. Markets and traders may begin to turn attention to how the resilient consumer is doing in future economic data since oil prices have remained higher and could remain higher for a while causing inflation to continue to creep up.

06/09/2026

"Off the Cuff" - The stock market faced a significant amount of volatility today, with stocks opening to broad strength before a sharp reversal across tech names sent the major averages sharply lower. Better than expected China import/export data and stronger than expected existing home sales sparked markets, especially the Russell 2000, to strong starts today. An hour into trading the Russell was up well over 2%. Then word got out that the US helicopter that went down last night was caused by Iran. Markets sold off quickly with the Nasdaq down over 3% at one point and the Russell down over 2%. The question of an accident or intended in the downed helicopter will depend on how President Trump reacts as he has already stated that the US needs to respond to it. Then mid-day markets hit technical levels, 25,000 on the Nasdaq for example, and buying continued the rest of the day with very large buying in the last 30 minutes. The Russell rose 0.41%, the Dow gained 0.17%, while the S&P and Nasdaq were down 0.26% and 0.97% respectively. The VIX rose 5% to 19.87. Bond yields were lower with the 10-year Treasury down to 4.52%. WTI oil fell 3% to $88 per barrel after the energy secretary reported ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is increasing. Metals were mostly lower ahead of the next two days of inflation data and worries of interest rate hikes. Crypto was all lower again today. Nine of the eleven major sectors managed to finish in the green with Energy and Tech the two downers. There are some words across trading desks that there is selling in Energy and Tech (winners this year) to raise funds for the SpaceX IPO on Friday. Those sub-sectors outperforming the Russell to the upside today were Private Equity, Homebuilders, Biotech, Infrastructure, Defense, Leisure/Entertainment, Oncology, Electrification, and Rare Earth Metals. Economically, tomorrow is focused on the CPI inflation data. Today's trading day underscored the volatility that continues to characterize semiconductor and other AI-related names, though the rebound from session lows also reflected a sustained eagerness to buy dips across growth-oriented stocks. At the same time, the broader market remained notably resilient, with strength spanning cyclical, defensive, and income-oriented sectors alike. The divergence between the equal-weighted and market-weighted S&P 500 suggests that participation beneath the surface remains constructive, even as leadership among the market's largest technology names becomes increasingly volatile ahead of SpaceX's IPO on Friday.

As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

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