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DAE Capital Strategies, Roseville, CA (2026)

06/01/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Early trading was shaped by a surge in crude oil following reports that Iran had stopped messaging the U.S. in protest of Israel's strikes in Lebanon. Oil prices remained elevated throughout the session, although they pared their worst levels after President Trump stated on Truth Social that discussions with Iran were continuing "at a rapid pace." Despite the gains in the major averages, market participation was relatively narrow. Tech was nearly the only sector to the upside. The Nasdaq was up 0.42%, the S&P gained 0.26%, the Dow was higher by 0.09%, while the Russell fell 0.47% after the spike in oil. The yield on the 10-year rose to 4.45% following the rise in oil after the Iran negotiation news. WTI oil rose nearly 6% to $92 per barrel, but that is lower than early this morning when it was up over 8%. Gold and silver were lower while other metals were higher. Crypto was lower across the board. Tech and Energy were the lone sectors in the green today. Those sub-sectors outperforming the Nasdaq today were Cloud, Memory, Software, Cybersecurity, Ai, Robotics, Internet, Metals/Mining, Leisure/Entertainment, and Blockchain with several more up 0.1-0.4%. Earnings of note after the close are from Credo Technology and Hewlett Packard Enterprise. The only earnings report to watch for in the morning is from Dollar General. Economically, markets will get the first labor data of the week in the JOLTS private jobs numbers tomorrow.

One More Thing - While June has historically been a negative month for the S&P, it has had a positive return in 9 of the last 10 years. Given we are already in a 9-straight week market advance, which has only happened 4 other times historically, can the Bulls keep the win-streak alive?

As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

05/29/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Today's session reinforced the market's strong upward momentum, even as participation remained relatively narrow beneath the surface. Continued leadership from technology and software stocks, combined with easing oil prices and optimism surrounding a potential U.S.-Iran agreement, helped push the major averages to new highs. Falling oil prices helped buoy the major averages as President Trump said on Truth Social earlier in the day that he was in a meeting in the Situation Room to finalize a decision regarding the memorandum of understanding that would extend the ceasefire and outline the next steps for nuclear negotiations, but the meeting concluded without a decision being announced. The S&P gained 0.22%, the Nasdaq rose 0.21%, the Dow advanced 0.72% while the Russell fell 0.59%. The VIX was down over 2 1/2 % to 15.3. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell further to 4.43% on continued optimism of a deal being struck. WTI oil fell 1% to below $88 and saw its biggest monthly drop in 6 years. Metals were mostly lower except gold and crypto finally stabilized. Nine of the eleven major sectors were down today. Those sub-sectors outperforming the major averages today were Cloud, Software, Cybersecurity, Blockchain, Ai, Memory, and several more were up 0.1-0.7%. Next week the focus will be on a few important earnings from Broadcom, Palo Alto Networks, and CrowdStrike as well as the Friday jobs report. As we wrap up the Month of May, it exceeded expectations. After two very strong months, and 9-straight weeks of advances, some volatility in June (the next to last worst performing month historically) as quarter-end rebalancing occurs would be unsurprising. However, July tends to be the strongest month of summer and the 4th best month on average for the S&P, so don't overreact.

One More Thing - Want to make a bear mad?

Tell them that after April & May gain more than 10% (like 2026 will), the rest of the year has gained double digits each time and been up an average of nearly 19% the rest of the year.

As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

05/28/2026

"Off the Cuff" - The market opened to relatively broad weakness as overnight headlines of the U.S. and Iran exchanging military strikes pushed oil past the $92 per barrel mark. Less than an hour into the session, however, Axios reported that U.S. and Iranian negotiators had agreed to a 60-day memorandum of understanding aimed at extending the ceasefire and opening negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, though the proposal still requires President Trump's approval. Today's session highlighted the market's continued sensitivity to geopolitical headlines, though the sharp reversal in oil prices ultimately helped restore risk appetite and support another push into record territory. Investors also continued to show a willingness to buy dips across semiconductor and AI-related names, reinforcing the market's underlying momentum. The Nasdaq led the way higher up 0.91%, the S&P gained 0.58%, the Russell small cap index rose 0.57%, and the Dow gained 0.05%. The VIX fell over 3% to 15.74 and getting near that 14 area that I always look for some sort of correction at. The yield on the 10-year Treasury closed up at 4.51% after the PCE inflation data was as expected but higher. Oil also hung around the $88 mark as strikes are still happening, and the deal is not agreed upon yet. Most of the metals saw some buying of the dip and closed higher while crypto continued their recent pullback. Five of the eleven major sectors finished in the green. Those sub-sectors outperforming the Nasdaq today were Rare Earth Metals, Defense tech, Cloud, Memory, Ai, Software, Cybersecurity, Defense, Space, Clean Energy, Datacenters, Metals/Mining, Biotech, Blockchain, and Natural Resources with many more up 0.25-0.9%. Earnings of note after the close are from Autodesk, Costco, Dell, Gap, MongoDB, NetApp, Okta, and SentinelOne. There aren't any earnings reports to watch for in the morning and economically it is also quiet with just Chicago PMI and several Fed governors speaking throughout the day. Markets will take the cue from what happens regarding the potential Iran deal.

As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

05/27/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Stocks remained near record levels despite some consolidation across semiconductor and cybersecurity names, while falling oil prices continued to reinforce optimism that a U.S.-Iran agreement is becoming increasingly plausible. At the same time, investors have continued to show a willingness to buy dips across semiconductors and other AI-related names, which could fuel another push further into record territory. Amazon and Meta provided solid mega-cap support. The Nasdaq finished up 0.07%, the S&P gained 0.02%, the Dow advanced 0.36%, and the Russell was lower by 0.02%. The VIX fell 4 ¼ % to 16.2. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was fractionally lower to 4.48% on the optimism of a deal with Iran getting done. WTI oil fell another 4 ¾ % to $89.41 with traders sensing a deal to get the Strait of Hormuz fully open again. The Metals and Crypto were all lower. Five of the eleven major sectors finished in the green. Those sub-sectors outperforming today were Blockchain, Space, Leisure/Entertainment, Homebuilders, US Industrial tech, Clean Energy, Infrastructure, Internet, Datacenters, Memory, and Biotech. Earnings of note after the close are from HEICO, HP, Marvell, Salesforce, Snowflake, and Synopsys. Earnings to watch tomorrow are from Burlington, Dollar Tree, Kohl's, and Photronics. Economic data tomorrow is for sure potentially market moving with weekly jobless claims, durable goods orders, PCE inflation data (the Fed's preferred data), and Q1 GDP. The last two pieces could push the Fed to raise interest rates. There is already a 62% chance of a hike in December priced in.

One More Thing - The 17% gain in the S&P 500 over the last 8 weeks is the 20th biggest 8-week gain for the index since 1950.

What has happened in the past following the big short-term rallies? There have been above-average forward returns (+27% on average over the subsequent year versus +11% in other periods).

As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

05/26/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Today's trading day reflected continued enthusiasm across semiconductor and AI-linked stocks, while easing pressure from oil prices and Treasury yields provided additional support for broader market participation. Oil prices and Treasury yields both retreated amid reports that the U.S. and Iran made progress on negotiations over the weekend despite both countries firing on one another. The Russell 2000 small cap index led the way again today up 1.79%; the Nasdaq gained 1.19%; the S&P rose 0.61%, while the Dow fell 0.23%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury closed down to 4.48% as oil moved lower with WTI oil falling 3% to $93.70. Metals, with the exception of gold, were all higher after the drop in oil and yields. Crypto had a down day across the board. Six of the eleven major sectors finished in the green today. Those sub-sectors up more than 2% were Memory, Space, Semiconductors, Clean Energy, IoT, Metals/Mining, Reshoring, Robotics, US Industrial tech, Nuclear, Infrastructure, Ai Power, Ai, Defense, and Datacenters with many more up 0.25-1.9%. Earnings of note after the close are from Modine Manufacturing, Semtech, and Zscaler. Earnings to watch in the morning are from Abercrombie & Fitch, Bath & Body, Dick's, and Dycom. Not much in the way of economic data tomorrow except for ADP employment numbers, but there will be a lot Fed governors speaking throughout the day.

05/22/2026

"Off the Cuff" - The markets traded in a relatively stable range today, locking in weekly gains that extend the S&P 500's winning streak to eight weeks. The Russell 2000 small cap index led the way again. Importantly, stocks showed resilience despite some hawkish developments on the monetary policy front. The Russell gained 0.91%, the S&P was up 0.37%, the Nasdaq advanced 0.19%, and the Dow was higher by 0.57%. The VIX was fractionally lower to 16.7. Bond yields were mixed, but the 10-year yield fell back to 4.55%. WTI oil closed at $97 per barrel but posted a loss for the week over optimism of an Iran deal. Metals were mostly lower except copper, and Crypto was down roughly 2% across the board. Nine of the eleven major sectors finished in the green. Many sub-sectors were up 1-6%. Earnings of note Tuesday morning are from AutoZone and CSW Industrials. In the four-day trading week next week, the economic focus will be on PCE inflation data and GDP numbers.

One More Thing - With the swearing in of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair today, I thought it would be interesting to see how the markets did during Powell and others. The Dow had an annualized return of 8.4% under now former Fed Chair Powell.

This ranks 8th out of the 16 Fed Chairpersons. It will be a while before knowing the outcome of Warsh, since he could wind up having the longest tenure of them all.

As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

05/21/2026

"Off the Cuff" - The stock market had an eventful session, with a slate of noteworthy earnings reports and plenty of oil-driven volatility leading to some choppy action. Stocks opened broadly lower as oil prices and Treasury yields surged following a Reuters report that Iran's Supreme Leader said the country's enriched uranium should remain in Iran. That report was later disputed, allowing oil prices and Treasury yields to stabilize, though stocks remained mostly lower through the morning. Sentiment shifted again shortly after midday, when reports from Middle Eastern sources indicated that a final draft of a mediated peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran could be announced within hours. NVIDIA delivered another massive jump in revenues and impressive forward guidance. However, the stock struggled to build on recent gains as investors have increasingly come to expect blowout results. The news still provided a catalyst for the rest of the Ai related names. The Russell small cap index gained 0.93%, the S&P was up 0.17%, the Nasdaq was higher by 0.09%, and the Dow advanced 0.55%. All far better than how the day began. The VIX fell nearly 4% to 16.7. Bond yields were mostly unchanged. WTI oil fell to $98 after it was back up to $100 earlier in the day. Metals and Crypto both rose with steady yields and lower oil. Eight of the eleven major sectors finished higher today. Those sub-sectors outperforming the Russell today were Memory, Clean Energy, Robotics, Blockchain, Ai, Ai Power, IoT, Nuclear, Datacenters, Electrification, Oncology, and Metals/Mining with many more up 0.1-0.9%. Earnings of note after the close are from Ross, Take-Two, and Workday. Economic data is light tomorrow, but markets will get consumer sentiment data (likely negative) and Kevin Warsh is sworn in as the new Fed Chairman. One area saw a massive lift today, Quantum, as the U.S. government agreed to invest $2 billion into six different Quantum computing companies for national security CHIPS Act. Overall, today's session reflected a market still highly sensitive to shifts in the macro backdrop, with intraday swings in oil prices and Treasury yields driving much of the action.

As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

05/20/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Stocks rebounded today after several trading days of selling. The broader market got a lift from the beginning on a nearly 5% pullback in oil along with a big drop in the yield of the 10-year Treasury to 4.58% on headlines of the Iran talks may be near an agreement and verification that ships in the Persian Gulf are moving to various locations as well as through the Strait. Markets also brushed off what is widely considered the most "hawkish" Fed minutes since 2023. Stocks posted wins on multiple fronts today, which helped the major averages move into positive territory for the week. The Russell 2000 small cap index gained 2.56%, the Nasdaq was up 1.55%, the S&P was higher by 1.08%, and the Dow advanced 1.31%. The VIX fell nearly 3 ½ % to 17.4. As mentioned, oil pulled back under $100 per WTI barrel to $99. Metals and Crypto saw gains across the board on the falling bond yields. Eight of the eleven major sectors finished higher on the day. Consumer Discretionary was particularly strong with better-than-expected earnings from some big names this morning and the massive rally in the travel-related stocks with the drop in oil. Semiconductors led the tech sector higher ahead of NVIDIA's earnings this afternoon. Those sub-sectors outperforming the Russell today were IoT (Internet of Things), Homebuilders, Clean Energy, Semiconductors, Memory, Biotech, Space, Reshoring, Rare Earth Metals, Ai, Metals/Mining, and many more were up 0.25-2.5%. Earnings of note after the close are all about NVIDIA, but others are from e.l.f. Beauty, Enersys, Intuit, and Nordson. Earnings to watch in the morning are led by Walmart, but other are from Deere and Ralph Lauren. Economically, markets get weekly jobless claims and S&P services/manufacturing data but make no mistake; the next couple of days will give a clue as to where the Ai trade goes in the near term after NVIDIA's earnings tonight.

One More Thing - While stocks don't like higher than normal rates or an inflationary environment (because of potential Fed interest rate increases), In inflationary growth periods (like now) you tend to see higher growth, higher rates, and higher inflation. That is what is currently happening.

As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

05/18/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Even with the market's recent leaders facing pressure today, the broader market helped stabilize the major averages that were down near 1% but it was the Truth Social headline that President Trump is holding off on the military strikes that were scheduled for tomorrow on Iran at the request of Quatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE that turned markets around and halved their losses. Those three countries feel that Iran is in more serious negotiations to end the war and wanted the pause. The Russell was down 0.65%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.51%, the S&P fell 0.07%, while the Dow rose 0.32%. The VIX pulled back 3.3% to 17.82. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to the highest in a year but pulled back from that to close at 4.58%. Oil rose 1 ¾ % to $107 with the possibility of another military strike on Iran looming. Metals were mixed while Crypto saw losses across the board as yields remain elevated. Seven of the eleven major sectors finished in the green today. Those sub-sectors that outperformed and finished in the green today were Cloud, Space, Cybersecurity, Defense tech, Software, Energy Infrastructure, Natural Resources, Defense, Internet, and Homebuilders. No earnings of note this afternoon, but the one to watch in the morning is from Home Depot. Today had a lot to do with the Ai trade cooling off ahead of NVIDIA's earnings on Wednesday. Higher oil prices continue to weigh on economies, so much so that the G7 finance ministers met today and will meet again tomorrow in Paris to discuss the effects. Bond yields are set to become the lead story after NVIDIA's earning report on Wednesday as markets near a tipping point at that 4.75% level. The only piece of economic data of note tomorrow are pending home sales numbers.

One More Thing - The last three times we had a 7-week winning streak for the S&P 500; it saw stocks up more than 20% a year later each time.

In fact, never lower a year later looking at all seven prior instances. I'd file this in the good news file.

As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

05/14/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Sustained enthusiasm across the AI trade sent the major averages higher again today with much broader participation this time. Exceptionally strong Q1 earnings season and continued flow of supportive catalysts have helped reinforce confidence in the rally and provide meaningful fundamental support for many of the market's leaders. The markets also digested what are mostly positive headlines from the Trump/Xi Summit. The Nasdaq rose 0.88%, the S&P gained 0.77%, the Russell gained 0.67%, and the Dow advanced 0.75%. The VIX fell nearly 3 ½ % to 17.26. Bond yields were nearly unchanged. Oil rose 1% to $102 on WTI after word of talks between President Trump and Xi regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Metals saw broad declines while Crypto was the complete opposite. In other big news today, the eagerly anticipated IPO of Cerebras Systems added to today's AI momentum and kicks off the first of the big IPOs this year. Six of the eleven major sectors finished higher today. Sub-sectors outperforming the Nasdaq today were Space, Cybersecurity, Software, Blockchain, Private Equity, Ai Power, Energy Infrastructure, US Industrial tech, Cloud, Homebuilders, Semiconductors, and Electrification with many more up 0.15-0.8%. The one earnings report of note after the close is from Applied Materials. There are no earnings of note tomorrow. Economically, markets will some manufacturing and industrial production data in the morning.

One More Thing - The S&P 500 has been on a six-week streak and soon to be seven, gaining more than 16%, the second-best such streak ever. Looking at the nine prior instances in which stocks were up at least 10% over six weeks, stocks were higher a year later 88.9% of the time, averaging +17.1%. Those are pretty good odds.

As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

DAE Capital Strategies

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