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11/02/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Tech attempted a rally after last week's and Friday's big down days to start the month of November. Ultimately, there is just still a lot of uncertainty, and the long-term "buy the dip" investors were overtaken by the short-term momentum focused ones. The tech sector PE multiple is now at 18.4. The cheapest in the past 4 years. That historically is a BIG buying or at least stay invested signal. The message from technology earnings last week was somewhat paradoxical. Demand for AI remained exceptionally strong, but so does the investment required to meet it. That strikes me as a healthy evolution. For much of the AI boom, investors appeared to have largely rewarded companies for announcing bigger AI investments. Today they appear to be increasingly interested in what they’re getting for the money. That doesn't mean the AI opportunity has disappeared. It means the hurdle is likely getting higher. Importantly, weakness in technology doesn’t appear to mean weakness everywhere else. While tech is the major driver of markets since it makes up nearly 30%, it is not the only play. The Nasdaq closed down 1.07%, the S&P was lower by 0.51%, the Russell dropped 0.21%, while the Dow rose 0.41%. The VIX rose 9 ¼ % to 21.2 ahead of Apple's earnings, the elections tomorrow, and the continued search for a diplomatic end to the war in Iran. Bond yields were fractionally lower again as oil prices plummeted ahead of the elections. The yield on the 10-year closed down to 4.91%, helping homebuilders rise. Oil prices fell 7 ½ - 8% as peace talks continue ahead of the mid-term elections. WTI oil closed down to $96, and Brent was down to $104. The drop in oil prices allowed metals to rally by about 1% today. The Binance crypto hack by North Korea last week continued to weigh on crypto causing drops of 1-2%. Seven of the eleven major sectors finished in the green today. Those sub-sectors and leading to the upside today were Homebuilders, Private Equity, Infrastructure, Defense, Robotics, Reshoring, Metals/Mining, Leisure/Entertainment, US Industrial tech, Rare Earth Metals, Clean Energy, and Internet. Earnings this afternoon are led by Apple, but others are from Advanced Energy, BWX Tech, Clorox, Fabrinet, Lattice Semi, onsemi, and Palantir. Earnings to watch in the morning are from DuPont, Eaton, Leidos, Louisiana-Pacific, Pfizer, Shopify, Xometry, and Zebra Tech. While markets were weak in October, markets are ultimately led by earnings (strong) and economic activity (very strong). We'll see how things trade on election day tomorrow.

One More Thing - These next six months are historically the best of the year, but they are even better in a midterm year.

In fact, 19 for 19 times we've seen November - April higher when starting in a midterm year.

As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

10/30/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Markets end a volatile month of October on a down note with many contributing factors over the last couple of weeks. A wave of anxiety surrounding the heavy capital expenditure requirements for AI infrastructure—contrasted against unproven short-term returns—has prompted a steep market rotation out of tech despite the earnings growth. The continued move higher in oil prices and especially after another ship was struck in the Strait of Hormuz today is a drag along the many other geopolitical tensions and uncertainty with the G20 summit that began today, in conclusive Israel elections, and the US elections next week along with sticky inflation ironically caused by Ai growth all throw a wet blanket on the markets. But, while short-term traders and algo rhythms trade in and out of tech, the long-term growth rates of technology are still there. The Nasdaq took the biggest hit today down 2.86%, but there was heavy buying in the last hour of trade bringing it back from down 3.6%. The S&P finished lower by 1.82%, the Russell was off by 1.66%, and the Dow lost 1.09%. The VIX jumped 13% to 19.4. Bond yields moved lower with the 10-year Treasury closing down to 4.92%. Oil rose again and for the fourth straight month with WTI closing at $103 and Brent at $117 after yet another strike on an oil tanker. Metals tanked 2-6% as the fear of sticky inflation will keep rates higher for longer weighed. Crypto fell another 4-5% after the cyber event yesterday blamed on North Korea stealing over $6 billion in crypto caused some crypto exchanges to be frozen. Six of the eleven major sectors finished in the green, but the heavy weight of tech, telecom services, and industrials dragged the averages lower. Energy Infrastructure and Natural Resources were the only sub-sectors in the green today. Earnings of note before the open on Monday are from Check Point Software, Entergy, Krystal Biotech, Marriott, and Tower Semi. While there was a lot of optimism the first half of the week with the announcement of Anthropic's pending IPO and tech's earnings, things changed as traders focused on the drop in free cash flow from those large cap tech firms spending on the Ai buildout for future growth and not liking it. Next week is another heavy week of earnings, the elections, and the jobs report for October. After today, the Nasdaq is now down 10% from its high on October 6th and into "correction" territory and semiconductors are 20% off their highs hit on the same day causing a real drag on markets. For the month, the Nasdaq was down 5.3%, the S&P dropped 0.92%, while the Russell gained 0.53%.

One More Thing - As we wrap up October, which will go out on a sour note, the outlook for markets into year-end get markedly better as buybacks return, liquidity increases, and end-of-year positioning begins. The average return on the S&P in November since 1964 has been 1.6% and positive 69% of the time while the average return in December has been 1.2% and positive 69% of that time.

As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

10/29/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Markets snapped a three-day winning streak as the heart of earnings season and particularly mega cap tech earnings have caused a lot of volatility. Ai spending and the drop in free cash flow for some of the biggest tech firms has analysts worried about the next several quarters of growth. Alphabet (Google), ServiceNow, and Fortinet along with Caterpillar were big losers today weighing on the averages while the Russell 2000 small cap index saw an increase. The negativity in tech affected most everything in the tech supply chain. Microsoft was the exception as their earnings were much more positive than some of the others. The S&P was down 0.3%, the Nasdaq fell 1.38%, the Dow dropped 0.25%, while the Russell rose 1.01% after strong GDP growth. The VIX rose 1.7% to 17.2. Bond yields moved lower today after the Fed held interest rates steady yesterday. This is despite the strong GDP growth numbers and rising inflation data. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.93%. Oil prices were just fractionally higher after renewed hope of a US/Iran peace deal. WTI oil closed at $102 per barrel, and Brent crude was at $115. Metals were mixed while crypto took a leg lower. Eight of the eleven major sectors were in the green today. Those sub-sectors outperforming the Russell today were Homebuilders, Defense tech, Defense, US Industrial tech, MLP Energy, Leisure/Entertainment, Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Genomics, Electrification, and Reshoring. Earnings of note after the close are led by Amazon, but others are from First Solar, Gilead Sciences, GoDaddy, Illumina, Intel, MasTec, Monolithic Power, Reddit, Sandisk, SPX Tech, and Starbucks. Earnings to watch in the morning are from AbbVie, AutoNation, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, General Dynamics, nVent Electric, and Regeneron Pharma. Amazon will be a catalyst for trading into tomorrow along with the Bank of Japan interest rate decision overnight.

10/28/2026

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10/14/2026

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10/12/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Markets closed lower today as a surge in energy prices, driven by volatile geopolitical developments, offset enthusiasm for the unofficial kickoff of the third-quarter corporate earnings season. Geopolitics served as the primary catalyst for market volatility today, heavily impacting every sector after the strikes on the Saudi airports. President Trump is considering joining the efforts to fight the Houthi rebels that launched the strikes. Over the weekend President Trump also tried to push forward an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine, but by all accounts, that seems like just talk. The Russell 2000 small cap index fell 0.45%, the Nasdaq was down 0.44%, the S&P dropped 0.06%, while the Dow was up 0.38%. The VIX rose 2 ½ % to 15.2 after the tension in the Middle East. Bond yields were unchanged today as that market was closed for Columbus Day. Oil rose over 1% with WTI up to $93 while Brent crude rose to $106 after the fighting in the Middle East and continued energy disruptions from the Russia/Ukraine war. Metals were mixed as the dollar strengthened and awaiting inflation data later this week while crypto fell across the board. Despite the down day for the averages, eight of the eleven major sectors finished higher on the day. Those sub-sectors outperforming to the upside today were MLP Energy, Natural Resources, Internet, and Energy Infrastructure. There aren't any earnings of note after the close, but tomorrow morning kicks off Q3 earnings season with announcements from Albertson's, Citigroup, Domino's, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, JP Morgan Chase, United Health, and Wells Fargo. Economically, markets will get existing home sales figures in the morning.

One More Thing - History is giving the bulls a reason to stay optimistic. When the S&P 500 is up 10% to 20% by late September, it has finished the quarter higher 86% of the time, with an average gain of 5.3%.

As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

10/09/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Markets finished a highly volatile week with gains on Friday as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East slightly cooled and bond yields were stable. The recovery of the Ai trade today after yesterday's confusion revenue outlook from OpenAI helped the overall markets as well. The Nasdaq gained 0.64%, the S&P rose 0.59%, the Russell was up 0.46%, and the Dow was higher by 0.83%. The VIX was down 3 ¾ % to 14.8. The yield on the 10-year Treasury closed at 5.24% and the odds of a rate hike this month are still down to just 20%. Oil was fractionally higher after President Trump reported productive talks with Iran and the announcement of a deal with Russia to release supplies of diesel fuel. Metals were higher across the board as yields and oil were stable. Crypto also saw a rebound of 1% today. Nine of the eleven major sectors were higher today. Those sub-sectors outperforming the Nasdaq today were Genomics, Cybersecurity, Datacenters, Biotech, Cloud, Software, Photonics/Optics, Metals/Mining, Robotics, Ai, Oncology, Pharmaceuticals, Blockchain, Internet, Defense tech, Data Center Supply, Electrification, Defense, Nuclear, Reshoring, Ai Power, Nanotech, and many more up 0.1-0.6%. There are no noteworthy earnings on Monday. For the first full week of October, the major averages were mostly higher with the exception of the Russell 2000 small cap index. The S&P gained 1.14%, the Nasdaq was up 0.64%, the Dow was higher by 0.93%, while the Russell was down 0.92%. Tuesday kicks off Q3 earnings season, and markets will get inflation data with CPI on Wednesday and the PPI on Thursday.

One More Thing - Bull markets that made it to their fourth birthday have historically done quite well in year 5. This one turns four next week.

The bull market ended only once in year 5 and that was more than 50 years ago.

Also, this is the third best start to a bull market by its fourth birthday. The two better ('80s bull and 2010s bull) each soared in year 5.

Yes, this bull might be getting older, but that doesn't blindly mean it has to stop.

As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

10/08/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Financial markets closed mostly lower as a steep selloff in artificial intelligence technology shares and surging oil prices weighed heavily on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. A report came out midday that had OpenAI's annual revenue falling well short of expectations due to some accounting confusion. Nonetheless, it rippled through the Ai trade and tech in general. Meanwhile oil jumped over 3% after news of Iran stepping up strikes on tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and the first hurricane of 2026 in the gulf could disrupt production and supply by tomorrow night. There were also hawkish comments from the Fed speeches that weighed more on the stock market than the bond market. The Nasdaq closed down 1.25%; the S&P was lower by 0.47%; however, the Russell finished up 0.03% as bond yields moved lower and the Dow was up 0.10%. The VIX rose 2% to 15.4. The yield on the 10-year Treasury closed down to 5.23% after yesterday's solid bond auction. As I mentioned, oil rose over 3% for both WTI and Brent with WTI closing at $92 and Brent up to $104. Metals were mixed to slightly higher while crypto saw losses of 2-4%. Despite tech weighing on the averages, seven of the eleven major sectors finished in the green today. Those sub-sectors outperforming to the upside today were Natural Resources, Cloud, MLP Energy, Energy Infrastructure, Pharmaceuticals, Leisure/Entertainment, Homebuilders, Defense tech, Internet, and Defense. No earnings of note this afternoon, but Delta reports in the morning. Markets will get consumer sentiment data before the open which I expect to be lower.

As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

10/07/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Markets ended lower today, pulling back from all-time highs as a massive selloff in the global bond market resurfaced to start the day. The global bond melt down is led by the French 10-year that has risen 1.3% in 6 months with France now having the highest yield in the Euro Zone. France is in a fiscal crisis with debt to GDP forecasted to go above 121% next year. In the US, the real estate market was already in recession prior to rate hikes with residential and commercial construction investment negative, and that was prior to the 1% increase in 30-year mortgage rates over the last 6 months. Commercial real estate continues its battle to recover ever since COVID six years ago. A strong 10-year note auction mid-day temporarily eased the bond yields and market sell off. The Russell 2000 small cap index, more interest rate sensitive, led the way lower down 1.31%, the Nasdaq and S&P both fell 0.22%, and the Dow dropped 0.66%. The VIX rose by just half a percent. As I mentioned, the 10-year Treasury pulled back from the highs of the day after the bond auction but did close at 5.28%. Oil was mixed as WTI was down 1/3 % while Brent crude rose ½ %. Metals were lower as the dollar rose after the release of the Fed minutes showed they believe they'll be another rate hike, but unsure as to when. Crypto saw losses of 2-5% on the back of rising bond yields. Four of the eleven major sectors finished in the green. Memory and Oncology were the only sub-sectors to finish up on the day. There aren't any earnings of note this afternoon. One earnings to watch for in the morning is from Pepsi. Economically, markets will get weekly jobless claims and two more Fed speeches tomorrow.

One More Thing - This bull market is nearly four years old.

Going back 50 years, looking at the five other bull markets that made it this far, every single one of them made it at least another year.

In fact, many, many more years is quite possible.

As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

10/06/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Markets continued the move higher to start Q4 as a cooling in crude oil prices and a slight retreat in bond yields offered a reprieve from recent macroeconomic anxieties. Robust demand in the technology and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors drove the S&P 500 above 7800 for the first time, while global markets monitored developing geopolitical escalations in the Middle East. Semiconductors were a big driver of the move today with a lot of positive comments coming from the Marvell conference. The Mecca Pact was activated as Turkey and Pakistan announced the rapid deployment of troops to Saudi Arabia under the mutual defense alliance known as the Mecca Pact to help Saudia Arabia to protect against the Iran backed Houthi rebels. Markets were higher and the gains were broader until the announcement of the Mecca Pact going into effect. However, the S&P gained 0.58%, the Nasdaq was up 0.45%, the Russell fell 0.59% after being up on the day, and the Dow advanced 0.49%. The VIX fell 3 1/3 % to 15 despite the geopolitical moves. The yield on the 10-year Treasury cooled off to 4.28%. Oil rose just a ½ - ¾ % despite the potential supply disruption. Metals were mostly higher as the dollar, and yields fell, while crypto was mostly lower. Ten of the eleven sectors finished in the green today with today's outlier being Healthcare. Sub-sectors outperforming the S&P today were Nuclear, Neocloud, Photonics/Optics, Ai Power, Cybersecurity, Electrification, Data Center Supply, Space, US Industrial tech, Clean Energy, Modern Warfare, Data Centers, Software, Quantum, Homebuilders, Infrastructure, and many more up 0.25-1%. The one earnings report of note after the close is from Constellation Brands and the one to watch in the morning is from Applied Digital. Economically, tomorrow is about the release of the Fed minutes later in the trading day.

As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

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