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"Off the Cuff" - Financial markets staged a broad recovery as markets rebounded from the previous session's Fed-induced ...
09/17/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Financial markets staged a broad recovery as markets rebounded from the previous session's Fed-induced sell-off, driven by falling oil prices and a stabilization in the bond market. Overnight, Saudi Arabia help oil prices drop as they decided to begin doing ship to ship oil transfers to keep the flow going. Something that was floated a few weeks ago, that if the Fed raised rates, it could actually cause yields to drop, played out at least for today. The Nasdaq led the way up 1.69%, the S&P rose 1.14%, the Russell gained 0.54%, and the Dow advanced 0.61%. The VIX plunged nearly 13% to 15.4 in a great signal for markets over the next 30 days. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.93% and getting off of that psychologically negative 5% figure. Oil fell 1.25-1.75% after the announcement from Saudia Arabia increasing flow of oil. Metals were mixed with industrial metals (copper & silver) up while gold and the rest were lower. Crypto saw a rally across the board. Nine of the eleven major sectors finished in the green today. Those sub-sectors outperforming the Nasdaq today were Memory, Healthcare tech, Quantum, Ai, Modern Warfare, Nuclear, Clean Energy, Semiconductors, Robotics, Data Center Supply Chain, Biotech, Blockchain, Rare Earth Metals, Ai Power, Datacenters, and Oncology. There aren't any earnings this afternoon or tomorrow. Economically, the labor market showed continued strength today while the housing data continued to weaken as the 30-year mortgage rate remains over 7%. Economic data tomorrow is industrial production and a speed from Fed Governor Bowman. Tomorrow is also triple/quadruple witching for major index options expiration and that can cause volatility throughout the day.


As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
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"Off the Cuff" - Markets were higher this morning heading into the Fed decision and even after the actual rate announcem...
09/16/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Markets were higher this morning heading into the Fed decision and even after the actual rate announcement. Then came the press conference that brought a sell off across the board with many of the major averages down near 1%. However, after the press conference ended, markets began to come back with the Nasdaq nearly closing up. While the Fed raised interest rates by a ¼ % for the first time since July 2023, they also signaled maybe one more increase this year probably in December. The probability for a rate hike in December is at 70%. A positive note to these hikes is that it doesn't seem to be the start of a rate hike cycle like what we saw in 2022/2023. The Nasdaq was down 0.01%, the Russell fell 0.4%, the S&P dropped 45%, and the Dow was lower by 1.21%. The VIX rose nearly 3% to 17.7. Early in the morning bond yields were lower on the drop in oil, but after the Fed raised rates, the 10-year Treasury closed back up to 5.02%. Oil was lower today after reports of the Saudi pipeline that was shut down recently, will reopen in a few days. Bond yields went up causing a sell-off in metals of 1-2% across the board. Crypto was mostly lower. Three of the major sectors finished in the green today. Those sub-sectors outperforming to the upside today were Space, Nanotech, Ai Power, Electrification, Data Center Supply, Semiconductors, Memory, Quantum, US Industrial tech, Datacenters, Robotics, Reshoring, Defense, Defense tech, and Biotech. One earnings report of note after the close is from Lennar. There is one earnings report to watch in the morning and that is from Carnival. The economic calendar is busy tomorrow with housing starts, weekly jobless claims, and manufacturing data before the open and then pending home sales just after the open.


As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
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"Off the Cuff" - Oil spiked to its highest level in four months while yields on the 10-year Treasury hit the highest lev...
09/15/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Oil spiked to its highest level in four months while yields on the 10-year Treasury hit the highest levels since 2007 before pulling back. While markets were down and have been trending lower this month leading into the Fed decision tomorrow, it has been very orderly. The Nasdaq was down 0.78%, the Russell fell 0.76%, the S&P dropped 0.45%, and the Dow lost 0.63%. The VIX was up nearly 2 ½ % to 17.5. WTI oil spiked 4% to over $105 and Brent crude rose 2.7% to over $108 on news that Saudi Arabia canceled some crude shipments after the pipeline shutdown. Word on that today is that it could be back up and running within days and not weeks. As has been the correlation all year, the yield on the 10-year Treasury hit 5.05%, highest in 19 years, before pulling back to close at 5%. Gold was down as yields were up, but the rest of the metals sector was higher. Crypto took a major blow to the downside today as the Clarity Act vote didn't pass in the Senate and will look to get back in front of them next year more than likely. Just two of the major sectors were higher today in energy and materials. Those sub-sectors outperforming to the upside today were Natural Resources, Cybersecurity, IoT, Defense tech, Memory, US Industrial tech, and Semiconductors. It was already rumored to be true, but the US confirmed today that there are weapons in space now. In an attempt Western align, South Korea kicked off a summit with five Central Asian states to break away from Russian influence. There are any earnings this afternoon or in the morning of note. Economically, markets will get retail sales numbers before the open and then the Fed interest rate decision at 11am PT followed by the news conference at 11:30. Since Fed Governor Warsh has backed himself to the wall, most analysts feel he has to raise rates to save credibility even though it won't do anything to bring oil prices down, which is where most of the inflation resides. The probability of a rate hike stands at 95% this afternoon. Oddly, a rate hike might stabilize the markets, while not raising could create more confusion.


As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

"Off the Cuff" - Stocks started the week under pressure as a triple whammy of higher oil prices, higher bond yields, and...
09/14/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Stocks started the week under pressure as a triple whammy of higher oil prices, higher bond yields, and fresh uncertainty around the Ai trade weighed. Over the weekend, several leading Ai voices called for slowing model development, raising questions about Ai infrastructure spending. Markets did finish off of their lows after mid-day comments from President Trump regarding the Ai buildout took some of the fear out of those stocks. Markets also got a pullback in the 10-year Treasury after it breached 5% early on. The Nasdaq fell 0.56%, the S&P was down 0.48%, the Russell dropped 0.4%, and the Dow was lower by 0.29%. The VIX spiked nearly 8% to 17. The yield on the 10-year closed at 4.99% after being up over 5% earlier. With the Fed painting themselves into a corning, the odds of a ¼ % interest rate increase this week stands at 92%. Oil was up over 3% early in the day after Saudia Arabia closed a critical oil pipeline that was damaged by drones over the weekend. However, oil pulled back off of those levels, closing up 1.5-2%. Metals were down across the board as bond yields rose. Crypto, however, saw nice gains. Three of the eleven major sectors finished in the green today. Those sub-sectors finishing higher despite the major averages being lower today were Cybersecurity, Cloud, Software, Internet, Oncology, Defense tech, and Pharmaceuticals. There are no earnings of note today or Tuesday. There also isn't any market moving economic data tomorrow. The focus is on the Fed meeting and interest rate announcement on Wednesday.


One More Thing - A composite of technical breadth measures is screaming oversold on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, boosting the odds of a reflexive rally. Setups like this can flip quickly once buyers return. Averages historically see a +4% bounce within 3 days from the oversold level.


As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

"Off the Cuff" - Today was a repeat of the last several days (oil and yields higher) with the added bonus of a slightly ...
09/10/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Today was a repeat of the last several days (oil and yields higher) with the added bonus of a slightly higher than expected wholesale inflation number and the fact that the ECB raised its interest rates today for what could be the same reason the Fed may raise rates next week. A flawed thought process by the way because raising rates isn't going to do anything to the price of oil, which is the main problem in this story. Current odds of a rate increase next week stand at 75%. The more interest rate sensitive Russell 2000 small cap index led the way lower today by 1.04%, the Nasdaq was down 0.65%, the S&P dropped 0.58%, and the Dow fell 0.6%. The VIX rose over 8% to 17.8. Oil spiked over 7% today with WTI closing at $103 and Brent at $108 after conflicting comments from the President and the White House. The President said oil should drop once the war is done after the mid-term elections in November while the White House was saying things could linger on until the end of Trump's Presidency in 2029. Bond yields jumped as well with the 10-year Treasury surging to 4.95%. That sent 30-year mortgage rates back over 7% for the first time in over a year. Just two major sectors were higher on the day. The only positive sub-sector today was the Internet. Earnings of note after the close are from Adobe and Oracle. The only earnings report to watch tomorrow is from Kroger. Economically, it is all about the CPI inflation data before the markets open. If it is higher than expected like the PPI today, the Fed could be backed into a corner next week as far as raising rates just to maintain their integrity.


As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

"Off the Cuff" - Stop me if you've heard this before this year; stocks were lower as oil and bond yields rise. So far, t...
09/09/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Stop me if you've heard this before this year; stocks were lower as oil and bond yields rise. So far, the September "black cloud" month is living up to the reputation. An 11 ½ % rise in WTI oil from the 1st at $86 to $96 today has weighed down stocks. The S&P and Nasdaq are down 1.5% and 1.3% respectively to this point in the month. Today, the Russell was down 1.32%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.64%, the S&P lost 0.48%, and the Dow fell 0.77%. The VIX rose 4.7% to 16.4. WTI oil jumped 3.8% to $96 per barrel, and Brent was higher by 3.7% and back over $101 after further military strikes overnight. The yield on the 10-year Treasury hit its highest level since November 2023 despite the Treasury announcing a $6 billion bond buyback. The 10-year yield closed at 4.84%. Metals rose despite the bond yield increase as the US dollar weakened. Crypto, however, was lower across the board. Energy was the lone major sector higher. Sub-sectors that bucked the downtrend today were Memory, Cybersecurity, Natural Resources, Metals/Mining, and Semiconductors. One earnings report of note this afternoon is from AeroVironment. The one earnings to watch in the morning is from Macy's. The economic data is heavy tomorrow starting with the ECB (European Central Bank) interest rate decision before the open followed by weekly jobless claims, PPI inflation data, and existing home sales figures. Apple's big product announcement day was met with a yawn as they rolled out their foldable phone. While Meta was cheered for their release of the stand-alone Ai assistant.


One More Thing - The S&P 500 still argues for a constructive 2026. The early-year correction suggests the market has already digested much of the typical midterm election weakness. Which is how I'm leaning.


As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

"Off the Cuff" - The ramp up in military action in the Middle East over the long weekend caused oil prices to rise 2-2.7...
09/08/2026

"Off the Cuff" - The ramp up in military action in the Middle East over the long weekend caused oil prices to rise 2-2.7% and bond yields followed as has been the case most of the year. The major averages started the day lower but were muted. It wasn't until late in the day when the yield on the 10-year Treasury hit 4.8% again, that they slipped a little further. The S&P fell 0.58%, the Russell was down 0.52%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.32%, and the Dow lost 1.18%. The VIX rose 2.8% to 15.7. While the yield on the 10-year did hit 4.8% again, it pulled back to 4.78% by the close. WTI oil closed at $94 per barrel, and Brent Crude ended at $99. Metals were mostly lower with the exception of copper. Crypto was also down on the day. Three of the eleven major sectors finished in the green today. Those sub-sectors outperforming to the upside today were Nuclear, Modern Warfare, Space, Ai Power, Memory, Clean Energy, Datacenter Supply Chain, Quantum, Electrification, Rare Earth Metals, Datacenters, Semiconductors, MLP Energy, US Industrial tech, Nanotechnology, Natural Resources, and Reshoring. As you can see by the number of up sub-sectors, the major averages don't always tell you how the markets were that day. There aren't any earnings of note this afternoon or in the morning. There isn't any market moving macro-economic data tomorrow either.

As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

"Off the Cuff" - Today was a case of "good news is bad news" for the markets. The jobs data was much better than expecte...
09/04/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Today was a case of "good news is bad news" for the markets. The jobs data was much better than expected although most of the beat in jobs added came from what I think are seasonal hiring in the leisure and hospitality space. Still, good for the economy, but bad for a potential rate increase at the Fed meeting on the 16th. The positives for the economy outweighed the interest rate risk for the sensitive Russell 2000 small cap index as it gained 0.25%. The Nasdaq was down 0.29%, the S&P dropped 0.38%, and the Dow fell 0.51%. The VIX rose 1 1/2 % to 14.5. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.78% after the stronger jobs data. WTI oil was fractionally lower while Brent was up a 1/3 %. Metals and crypto were lower as the odds of a rate hike this month increased to 60%. Three of the eleven major sectors finished positive today. Those sub-sectors outperforming the Russell today were Memory, Semiconductors, Data Center supply chain, Nanotechnology, Ai Power, Reshoring, Robotics, Quantum, US Industrial tech, Electrification, Homebuilders, Ai, Data Centers, Infrastructure, IoT, Clean Energy, Space, and Nuclear. There are no earnings of note on Tuesday. The economic data in the limelight next week are the CPI and PPI inflation readings particularly ahead of the Fed meeting the following week. To start the volatile month of September, markets did ok. The Nasdaq gained 0.4%, while the S&P and Russell were up 0.09 and 0.08% respectively.

One More Thing - The S&P 500 has bottomed, on average, on Sept 30 of midterm years. According to an analysis by Citadel. It is Bullish in the 5 weeks leading into the elections. While the Fed meeting is the key data point coming up and will determine a lot of things this month, keep in mind that September is also higher 46% of the time and since we already received a correction in July, this year may be one of those positive Septembers.


As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

"Off the Cuff" - Markets saw a second consecutive day of gains after the Japanese yen strengthened overnight against the...
09/03/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Markets saw a second consecutive day of gains after the Japanese yen strengthened overnight against the dollar and then early this morning influential Fed Governor Waller said, he'd be inclined to keep interest rates unchanged next week. Tech led the way again after NVIDIA announced an acquisition of a large and influential private software developer, and Snowflake drove the software sector higher on blowout earnings. The Nasdaq rose 1.4%, the S&P gained 1.06%, the Russell was up 0.51%, and the Dow advanced 1.18%. The VIX dropped nearly 6% to 14.3. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.77% after Waller's comments and the odds of the Fed raising interest rates next week fell to 50% after hovering near 70% earlier in the week. WTI oil rose ¾ % to $91.70 and Brent was fractionally higher after Iran fired missiles at Kuwait. Metals and crypto saw nice increases as bond yields and the value of the dollar fell. Eight of the eleven major sectors were up on the day. Those sub-sectors outperforming the Nasdaq today were Blockchain, Software, Cloud, Ai Power, Cybersecurity, Nuclear, Ai, Data Centers, Ai Supply Chain, and many more up 0.2-1.25%. Earnings of note after this afternoon are from DocuSign, Planet Labs, Samsara, and Zscaler. The only earnings report to watch in the morning is from RH. There is one piece of economic data markets will be looking at tomorrow, and that is the monthly jobs report.


As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

"Off the Cuff" - Bond yields and oils move higher took a pause today and in addition with dovish data from Beige Book da...
09/02/2026

"Off the Cuff" - Bond yields and oils move higher took a pause today and in addition with dovish data from Beige Book data allowed the markets to break their 3-day losing streak. Dell's earnings and guidance last night was a big boost to the Ai trade with no signs of slowing. This carried over to most of tech. The Russell 2000 rose 1.13%, the S&P was up 0.46%, the Nasdaq gained 0.45%, and the Dow advanced 0.56%. With no new military action, the VIX pulled back by 7% to 15.2. The yield on the 10-year Treasury closed down to 4.78%. Oil rose, but just by a half percent. Metals saw gains with the pullback in yields while crypto continued their move lower after a massive rally over the last several weeks. Ten of the eleven major sectors finished in the green today. Those sub-sectors outperforming the Russell today were Memory, Pharmaceuticals, Space, Modern Warfare, Blockchain, Biotech, Metals/Mining, and many more that were up 0.15-1.1%. Earnings of note after the close are led by another big player in the Ai trade from Broadcom, but others are from Argan, C3.ai, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, NetApp, Netskope, and Snowflake. Earnings to watch before the open are from Ciena and Campbell's. Economically, markets will get weekly jobless claims, ISM Services numbers, and a couple of Fed governors speaking.


One More Thing - Call it the September drag. Since 1964, the S&P 500 has lost an average 0.7% in the month and finished higher in just 46% of Septembers. Can the market defy the script in 2026? Many analysts, including me, think it could be one of those years in the 46% of the time.


As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me
Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte
Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news

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