05/22/2026
A lot of buyers are asking the same question right now:
Should I wait for home prices to fall more?
It is a fair question — especially after the market we have been through. Home prices moved up fast, rates jumped, affordability got squeezed, and a lot of buyers decided to sit on the sidelines.
But when you look at past housing cycles, the bigger question may not be whether prices fall a little more.
The bigger question may be:
What happens if rates improve before prices fall much further?
In this week’s market update, I’m breaking down how today’s market compares to prior housing cycles, including the early 1990s, the 2007 housing downturn, and the 2017–2019 slowdown.
The reason this matters is because we have seen this type of setup before. Markets slow down, buyers pull back, prices soften, and then the next major shift often comes when affordability improves.
And affordability does not always improve because home prices crash.
Sometimes it improves because rates move lower.
That is the part I think a lot of people are underestimating right now.
Back in the 2017–2019 cycle, mortgage rates moved from the low 4% range down into the low 3% range. That was roughly a 1% move, and it was enough to bring a lot of buyer demand back into the market.
Now compare that to today.
Buyers have been living in a much higher rate environment — roughly 6.25% to 7.25% depending on the day, the borrower, and the loan scenario.
So if rates were to drop by 1% to 1.5%, that could change the monthly payment conversation in a major way.
The market does not need 3% rates to become competitive again.
It may only need enough payment relief for buyers to feel like the math finally works.
That is why waiting can be risky. Some markets may still see price softness, and every local market is different. But if rates move lower before prices fall much more, we could see buyer demand return quickly — especially in areas where inventory is still limited.
In this episode, I’ll walk through the chart, compare where we are today to past cycles, and explain why the next move in rates could matter just as much as the next move in home prices.
Whether you are a buyer, homeowner, seller, or real estate professional, this is an important market setup to understand.
Because the opportunity may not come when the market feels obvious.
It may come while everyone else is still waiting.
Start the process at www.ccm.com/john-king
