06/08/2026
Two countries traded missiles over the weekend, and oil is up almost 5% before most of us finished our coffee.
That tells you what kind of week we're walking into.
Futures are up slightly this morning. Oil is jumping on the Israel and Iran strikes, tech is still nursing a rough Friday, and Apple takes center stage today. A lot can happen between now and the close, so here are a few things I'm watching and some ideas to consider before the open.
1. Oil is the story, but chasing it is the trap.
When missiles fly near the Strait of Hormuz, oil moves first because about a fifth of the world's crude passes through there. Energy names tend to follow. The mistake I see traders make is buying the very top of the candle after the news already hit. Consider watching energy for pullbacks to rising moving averages instead of jumping in at the highs. Geopolitical pops can fade fast when the headlines cool off, so keep your risk tight.
2. Tech is shaky, and that changes how you treat bounces.
The Nasdaq dropped 4% on Friday, and money rotated out of chips and into safer corners of the market. When a leader gets hit like that, the first bounce is often where trapped buyers try to get out, not a clean reversal. Consider letting these names prove themselves before trusting a recovery. Strength that holds through the first hour means more than a quick green candle off the open.
3. Apple's big day could swing the whole tech mood.
Today is Apple's developer conference, with a lot of attention on its AI and Siri reboot. How Apple trades can color the entire growth and AI group for the day. A strong, high-volume hold tells you buyers are stepping back in. A pop that fades on the news tells you the sellers aren't done. Either way, let the reaction guide you instead of guessing the outcome ahead of time.
One thing humming in the background: with oil climbing and inflation still on the Fed's mind, the odds of a rate cut this month are slim. That keeps pressure on the most stretched, expensive names.
When the world feels this loud, patience is usually the best trade. Let the first move shake out, then trade what's actually in front of you.
What are you watching most today, the oil names or Apple? Drop it in the comments.
