04/29/2026
The Federal Reserve came out today and said… we’re not touching rates.
That means the federal funds rate is staying right where it is, sitting between 3.5% and 3.75%.
And honestly? No one in the industry is shocked.
The market already saw it coming. Industry tools had it at basically a 100% chance of a hold. Translation… this was baked in before the announcement even hit.
Now let’s clear something up real quick, because this is where people get it twisted.
The Fed does NOT directly set mortgage rates.
But what they do say and how they act? That moves the market. Especially things like the 10-year Treasury, which is what mortgage rates actually tend to follow.
And right now, the Fed is in full “wait and see” mode. Why?
Because of global uncertainty… especially with what’s going on between the U.S. and Iran. Oil prices are shaky, inflation could flare back up, and the economy hasn’t clearly weakened enough to justify cutting rates yet.
So instead of guessing… they’re holding.
We also haven’t seen a single rate cut in 2026 so far. Earlier this year, people were betting on cuts happening by now, but that’s been pushed back thanks to inflation concerns tied to energy prices.
Even if things calm down overseas, that doesn’t automatically mean rate cuts are coming. The job market is softening a little, but it’s not falling apart. And until it does… the Fed is going to stay cautious.
Inside the mortgage world, nobody expected anything different. There’s just not enough data right now to justify making a move.
So what does this mean for you?
It means we’re still in a market where strategy matters more.
Rates are influenced by a lot more than just one announcement. And if you’re sitting on the sidelines waiting for the “perfect” rate… you might be waiting longer than you think.
Next Fed decision drops June 15. We’ll be watching.
Until then… we navigate. 🧭