09/23/2026
📉 Mortgage Market Update: No Deal, Strong Data & Rising Yields
It’s been another difficult morning for the bond and mortgage markets.
Yesterday, the market was holding out hope that President Trump might announce progress toward a deal with Iran. Instead, his comments signaled that negotiations remain uncertain and that additional military action is still possible.
That matters to the mortgage market because uncertainty around global energy supplies can push oil prices higher, which can add to inflation concerns.
Then this morning, we got another piece of data the bond market really didn't want to see:
📊 S&P Global Composite PMI jumped from 56.0 to 58.4 — its strongest reading in more than five years.
The report showed:
• Stronger business activity
• The fastest employment growth in more than four years
• Increasing price pressures
• Higher energy costs and supply-chain pressures
In other words, we're seeing strong growth + strong hiring + continued inflation pressure.
And that's putting additional pressure on bonds.
📈 What does that mean for mortgage rates?
The 10-Year Treasury has moved back above 5.00%, while mortgage bonds have also weakened.
The UMBS 6.0 is currently down about 16 ticks, or 0.50 points in price, which is putting pressure on rate sheets.
The market is also pricing in a much higher probability of another Fed rate hike in October than it was just a month ago.
One important reminder:
The Fed does not directly set mortgage rates.
Mortgage rates are heavily influenced by the bond market, inflation expectations, economic data, Treasury yields and mortgage-backed securities.
👀 What I'm Watching
The 10-Year Treasury is still trading within the rising-yield channel we've been watching since late August.
Right now, the key levels are:
🔴 5.064%: Breakout level to watch
🟡 5.005%: Important nearby level
🟢 A move back below these levels would provide some relief and potentially signal that yields are rejecting the upper end of the current channel.
🔒 Lock Bias: Strong Lock
At these levels, the potential reward for floating is not outweighing the risk for many shorter-term transactions.
This is a market where protecting today's pricing can be more important than trying to perfectly time tomorrow's improvement.
We're continuing to watch the economic data, oil prices, Treasury yields and mortgage bonds closely.
Because the mortgage market doesn't move in a straight line—and neither does the economy. 🏡📊
If you're wondering what today's market means for your specific situation, Spencer and I are always happy to walk through the numbers with you.
Send a message to learn more