02/06/2026
NAR Housing Wealth Article
Real estate really gets the credit for the amazing asset that it is. Two‑thirds of wealth in the US is home equity, and home values have risen 78% over the last 33 years. It has been a very important aspect of creating wealth, and there is a reason that homeowners have 44x the net worth of renters. We still believe that homeownership is the American Dream.
According to the NAR, over the last five years, the median homeowner increased their net worth by $150,000. That means that half of the homeowners did better than that.
There have been some markets that have recently declined, but those areas like Florida and Texas, many of the markets have seen net worth increase by over one over the five-year period because the gains previously were much greater and now they are giving a little back.
Realtor.com Listing Data
Realtor.com reported that Active Listings fell 7% in January but are still up 10% year over year. Even though overall listings fell, new listings rose 4.5%—but this happens every January as agents digest properties in December and re-list them in January to reset the days on market.
The insight here, however, is that there must have been strong sales in order for active listings in general to be lower month over month, despite an increase in new listings.
Crypto Update
Many of you are interested in cryptocurrencies, and with the recent plunge, we thought it would be a good idea to cover the move, especially because it can impact other markets.
As of one point yesterday, Bitcoin was down 50% from its all‑time high, while other smaller cryptocurrencies (alt coins) were down as much as 70% or more. The selling in the previous metals definitely stole liquidity, and the weakest, least temporary coins got a lot of their thunder as of yesterday. But we are at the point in time according to the Elliot wave theory cycle where you would expect to be near a hard pivot and for prices to be depressed… that starting time the selloff was irrational.
Cryptocurrencies have gone through many stages of adoption, with Spot ETFs being held as a balance sheet asset, and nations owning it as part of their inter-reserves. There are now many real‑world applications that are being used. While this is not a direct call, one can also opportunity if you are interested in looking into the Bitcoin price model. Historically, the strongest buying has come when prices are below the on‑chain buy model. Deals start creating or springing built around rigs that started to move higher.
Where is the bottom? No one knows, but there is a strong 200‑week moving average floor around $56,000 for Bitcoin that Katie Stockton has called out. For this overhead to be invalidated, Bitcoin would likely have to break below $50,900 or go above $80,900. It is very hard to break the overhead in short-term rebound risk fakes. Bottom line: While this is not financial advice, if there is interest, these could be good areas to begin entry.
Markets Next Week
Tuesday: Retail Sales, Employment Cost Index
Wednesday: Mortgage Apps, BLS Jobs Report (delayed from February 6), 10‑year Auction
Thursday: Jobless Claims, 30‑year Auction, Existing Home Sales
Friday: Consumer Price Index
Job Report / Consumer Price Index
The BLS Jobs Report on Wednesday will be critical. The market is anticipating that there were 50–70k jobs created in January and that the unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 4.3%. This comes with some headwinds, including ADP, Quickoffer, Challenger, and ISM JOLTS, which have been showing a slowdown in job creation. This makes BLS a bit of a toss‑up. But if we see weaker job numbers and wage pressures falling, which often corresponds to lower inflation or interest rate rises, Bonds will likely have a strong positive reaction to those reports, which will be good for interest rates.
Technical Analysis
On the 10‑year, we opened up yesterday at 4.24%, working above its 25‑day Moving Average. Bonds were pressured again yesterday and are working at a higher level. They are now in a new range, namely interim support about 7bp above previous opening levels. But we are still all the way at the bottom side.
Mortgage Bonds opened up on a yield yesterday, breaking beneath the 200‑day Moving Average. This morning’s yields opened up at the level of 3.99%. As the market comes in today, we are looking for the interplay of yields and mortgage bonds. In this environment, mortgage bonds are starting to approach the next significant ladder of support around 3.95%, which is the next major support.
