05/14/2026
Weather moving in!
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An active severe and tornado weather pattern returns to the Southern and High Plains and Midwest over the next several days, with a multi-day severe risk, as multiple disturbances move into the region via the jet stream, drawing increasingly humid air north off the Gulf. While not every location sees severe weather each day during this multi-day risk, the atmosphere will become increasingly more supportive of severe storms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds and eventually tornadoes.
Today: severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon from parts of Kansas and Missouri southward into western Texas and Oklahoma but the highest risk appears to be across central Kansas. The atmosphere will become increasingly unstable this afternoon as warm, humid air surges northward into the Plains. While conditions will support supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts, there are questions on how many storms actually develop because a strong cap. If storms can break through the cap they will quickly become severe. Farther south across west Texas and western Oklahoma, scattered high-based storms may produce strong downburst winds and localized damaging gusts, especially in dry areas near the dryline along with lightning sparking fires.
Friday: the severe risk ramps up across parts of the central Plains into the Missouri Valley. The environment looks increasingly favorable for supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging winds, especially from northeast Kansas into southeast Nebraska and nearby areas. Some storms could produce tennis ball size hail. Storm coverage may initially remain somewhat isolated during the afternoon before increasing Friday evening and overnight as the low-level jet strengthens. Western Oklahoma could also see an isolated severe storm if any thunderstorm is able to overcome the cap with tennis ball size hail being the main concern.
Saturday: moving into the weekend, the severe risk ramps up. Saturday looks to be a more significant severe weather setup across parts of the central Plains into the Missouri Valley. A strengthening storm system moves out of the West and will interact with the rich Gulf moisture and strong wind shear, creating an environment supportive of intense supercells. Very large hail - possibly larger than baseballs, damaging winds and tornadoes are possible, especially from Kansas into southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri. There is an increasing concern for the tornado potential Saturday evening, including the possibility of a strong tornado - EF2-3+ - if the low-level jet strengthens as guidance suggests.
Sunday: Sunday also has the potential to become a widespread and dangerous severe weather day across portions of the Plains and Mississippi Valley. Guidance continues to signal the possibility of a severe weather outbreak as a powerful upper-level system approaches from the West. Very unstable air, strong wind shear and an intensifying low-level jet may support numerous supercells capable of tornadoes, in which some tornadoes could be strong EF2-3+.
Monday: the severe weather threat looks to intensify further on Monday as the upper-level trough ejects into the Plains form the West. Storms are expected to develop near the dryline from Oklahoma and Texas into Kansas into Nebraska. Atmospheric conditions appear favorable for organized supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes that could continue into the nighttime hours.
Tuesday: by Tuesday, the severe weather risk shifts southeast along a cold front stretching from the Southern Plains into the Midwest. Warm, humid air ahead of the front will continue to fuel instability, allowing storms to develop during the afternoon and evening. Severe storms remain possible with damaging winds, hail and potentially a few tornadoes.
In the comments, find a map for each day!
