03/13/2026
Rates just did something wild. 🧵
February ended with the best mortgage rates in over 3 years.
Two weeks later we’re at 7-month highs.
Here’s what happened 👇
The reason is pretty simple. War fears in Iran pushed oil prices up fast. When oil goes up, the cost of moving goods goes up. When that happens, the bond market expects higher inflation. Higher inflation expectations = higher mortgage rates today.
A few things worth knowing right now:
The Fed is not going to fix this. No rate cuts are coming with inflation risks still on the table. And even when they do eventually cut, mortgage rates have actually gone UP after Fed cuts before.
Getting back to February’s lows will take months, not weeks. The bond market needs real data showing inflation is cooling before it relaxes. That process is slow.
Rates can still improve from here. But the path back is bumpier than most people are hoping for.
If you’re waiting for rates to drop before you buy, let’s talk about whether that strategy actually makes sense for your situation.
👇 Drop a comment or send me a DM.