08/28/2026
**THE MORTGAGE MARKET IS ABOUT MORE THAN “THE FED CUTTING RATES.”**
If you want to understand where mortgage rates may be heading, you have to look deeper into the bond market—specifically Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS), Treasury yields, inflation expectations, liquidity, and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet.
Right now, we’re in an interesting transition.
The Fed spent years using **Quantitative Tightening (QT)** to remove liquidity and shrink its securities portfolio after the massive Quantitative Easing (QE) programs of the previous cycle.
Why does that matter for mortgages?
During QE, the Fed became an enormous buyer of Treasuries and Agency MBS. That additional demand helped push bond prices higher, yields lower, and ultimately helped compress mortgage rates.
The opposite happens when that support is removed.
Today, the Federal Reserve still holds roughly **$1.9 TRILLION in Mortgage-Backed Securities**, so what happens with that portfolio matters to the mortgage market.
But MBS don't trade in a vacuum.
I’m watching several things closely:
• **Inflation:** Persistent inflation keeps pressure on longer-term yields.
• **The 10-Year Treasury:** Mortgage rates aren't tied directly to the Fed Funds Rate. The 10-year Treasury and the broader yield curve are much better indicators of where mortgage pricing pressure is coming from.
• **MBS Spreads:** Even if Treasury yields decline, mortgage rates don't necessarily fall by the same amount. Investor demand, volatility, prepayment risk, and MBS spreads matter.
• **Federal Reserve Policy:** A Fed rate cut is NOT the same thing as Quantitative Easing. The Fed can lower the overnight rate while still maintaining a very different balance-sheet policy.
• **Liquidity & Treasury Supply:** The amount of government debt hitting the market and who is willing to absorb that supply can significantly influence longer-term yields.
So where does this leave us?
I believe we're entering a market where rates could eventually find room to improve, but the path is unlikely to be a straight line down.
For mortgage rates to make a **sustained** move lower, I want to see several pieces working together:
Cooling inflation.
Lower long-term Treasury yields.
Healthy investor demand for MBS.
Tighter MBS spreads.
Less bond-market volatility.
And if we ever move back toward true **Quantitative Easing or meaningful MBS purchases**, that's an entirely different conversation because the demand side of the mortgage bond market changes dramatically.
That's why I'm not trying to predict one Fed meeting.
I'm watching the **bond market behind the mortgage market.**
There is a big difference.
**Mortgage rates are the end result. MBS, Treasuries, inflation, liquidity, and investor demand help tell us how we got there—and potentially where we're going next.**
John Changaris | NMLS #246063
502-333-5316
Motto Mortgage Flex
Motto Mortgage Flex
NMLS #1971873
830 S. 22nd St., Suite 2
Louisville, KY 40203
This is for informational purposes only and is not a commitment to lend or a guarantee of any specific interest rate, loan program, approval, or future market conditions. Interest rates and loan terms are subject to change and depend on individual borrower qualifications and other applicable factors.