10/22/2022
Mortgage Rates and Home Prices
While most people following the mortgage markets probably knew that interest rates would not stay at historic lows forever, it is likely that few of us anticipated the speed and magnitude of the turnaround.
In less than nine months, mortgage rates have almost doubled. The most significant effect of this has been to increase monthly payments on home purchases, in some cases dramatically. Historically, declining interest rates have allowed for increases in home prices and rising rates have led to lower prices. So one would think that we will be seeing an across-the-board correction in home prices going forward and that will likely be true at least to some extent in many markets. However the correction is unlikely to be as dramatic as the correction (or crash) in home prices we saw during the mortgage crisis and economic decline beginning around 2009 for a number of reasons.
First, there is pent-up demand for homes in many markets and a continuing under-supply. If there are more buyers than sellers, that would tend to temper the magnitude of any price decline.
In addition, the dramatic tightening of mortgage underwriting guidelines which followed the mortgage industry collapse means that for the last 10 years, buying power has been reduced.
But perhaps the biggest factor which may prevent significant declines in housing prices is psychology and/or memory. When houses began to decline in 2009 and continued to decline, a panic set in. That self fulfilling prophecy ensured that house prices would continue to decline for years to come. But back in 2009, few potential buyers even remembered the 1987 correction cycle simply because it had been such a long time ago that point.
Today, on the other hand, most people in the market to buy a home probably remember how much prices have appreciated since the last decline and may not be as fearful of buying now or may in fact think of this as an opportunity.
The bottom line is that interest rates will certainly affect some peoples ability or desire to buy a home but that the across-the-board price declines expected over the short term may not be as dramatic as some fear.
Burt P. Augustensen Mortgages has been in business continuously since 1983 providing creative and, in many cases below market financing for our clients.