Rita Sayij, NMLS 239045

08/01/2025

04/24/2025

The March year-over-year Core PCE, a key inflation measure, is expected to fall to 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021, when reported on Wednesday, April 30, 2025. This decline suggests cooling inflation, which could shape Federal Reserve policy and impact housing markets.
Takeaway: A lower Core PCE may signal a dovish Fed, potentially stabilizing or lowering mortgage rates, which could boost housing affordability and demand.

Key Inflation Measure Set to Decline

02/06/2025

FIRST TIME HOMEBUYER INCENTIVES

01/03/2025

New Year! New Higher Loan Amounts !
loan amounts as low as $806,500 and can go up to $1,209,750 for 1 unit in California.

12/13/2024

Consumer inflation is higher!

Consumer Inflation Inches Higher

12/02/2024

FEDs week!

11/15/2024

Rate cuts coming??

09/24/2024

New loan Limits available now

05/15/2024

Whew! The markets dodged a bullet this morning as inline to lower consumer inflation sparked a rally in the bond markets.
April CPI m/m rose 0.3% vs 0.4% expected and down from 0.4% in March, y/y 3.4% inline and down from 3.5%. The Core rate, which strips out food and energy, was inline at 0.3% m/m and down from 0.4%, y/y 3.6% inline and down from 3.8%. The May New York Empire Manufacturing was -15.60 vs .9.90. The closely watched Retail Sales data, or consumer spending, was flat in April versus 0.4% estimated.
The May NAHB Housing Market Index falls to 45 from 51 in April and below 51 expected.
The weak economic data also helped to support the rally in bonds. Stock futures were flat before the data but are trading in positive territory on the notion of a 25bp rate cut by the Fed in September.
The 10-year yield has plunged to 4.37% and right above support of 4.35% with its 200-day Moving Average at 4.33%. Traders could have been betting for a hot CPI report and went short, only to have to cover after the bond-friendly headlines. Short selling is a trading strategy where investors and traders speculate on a securities decline. Short sellers bet on, and profit from, a drop in a security's price. In this case, prices rose and yields fell … not good for those shorting the market.
However, we are not out of the woods on the inflation front. This month, commodity prices have spiked. Typically, changes in commodity prices can drive inflation trends. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, commodities make up close to 36% of CPI. So, we will be watching this closely for the May data.
Technically, the FNMA 30-year 6% coupon has broken above resistance one (R1) at 100.50 and sets its sights on resistance two (R2) at 101.00. As mentioned, the 10-year yield is 4.38%, right above support at 4.35%, the level it bounced off on April 10th.
Good news for your clients and partners - rate cuts are coming next and now sooner than previously thought.