10/30/2024
Wanna see why the BOND market and Mortgage Rates keep going up. You see a lot of posts that talk about rates and their movement but not a ton into the "WHY". First the FEDS do not control Mortgage rates at all. INFLATION is what moves mortgage rates. But I did some deep dive and research into recent trending and somethings not adding up.
This is today's ADP Employment report and it appears as if there's an increase in jobs and seasonal employment. But notice a pattern within the last 2 years vs since 2016. This makes the stocks rally selling off BONDS which makes our BOND pool of money smaller and Mortgage rates go UP.
For the first time in 8 years there has been a positive number for seasonal employment. The NSA = Non Seasonal Employment & SA = seasonal employment. Instead of subtracting the seasonal workers from the workforce (shown- do the math) normally, they've added them together to make it look stronger, seems. Devise your own opinion but the numbers provide a telling tale.