Tony Lomatchinski - EZ Mortgages, Inc.

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Tony Lomatchinski - EZ Mortgages, Inc. Loan officer with EZ Mortgages. NMLS: 1771864 DRE: 02221182 Corp NMLS: 1160876 Licensed in CA

Whether it’s a purchase, refinance, reverse mortgage or home equity line Tony will ensure you know all your options and find the right fit for you.

11/05/2026

☀️ Morning Market Update

Stocks are pointed higher and Mortgage Bonds are lower so far this morning, giving back some of yesterday's gains.

💼 Jobs Report Tomorrow
- The BLS Jobs Report comes out tomorrow morning and is the main focus. Bonds have been on a nice roll, and whether the rally continues will likely depend on how many jobs were created vs. estimates
- The market expects roughly 60,000-65,000 jobs created in October, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%
- Revelio Labs released its own jobs report this morning and showed only 26,000 jobs created in October, a weak number. Historically, Revelio has a pretty good correlation with the BLS report (0.83), though not perfect. It more often than not correctly signals whether the BLS will beat or miss estimates
- Based on Revelio and the big negative revisions we've seen from the BLS, we believe there is a good chance the report comes in below estimates, which would be good for Bonds and may help the rally continue
- But the BLS has been known to surprise, and a stronger than expected number would likely cause Bonds to falter

📈 Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
- Q3 productivity rose 3.6%, stronger than the 2.8% expected, and the previous quarter was revised higher
- As a result, unit labor costs fell 0.7%. That's deflationary and ultimately a good thing, but Bonds didn't have much of a response

🏛️ Fed Commentary
- Beth Hammack, voting Cleveland Fed President and one of the most hawkish Fed members, dissented at the last meeting and voted in favor of a hike
- This morning she said she wants to see gradual rate hikes to get the Fed to a restrictive position to fight inflation. It sounds like she wants more than one hike, but "gradual" suggests they may not need to come at consecutive meetings
- She said she doesn't want the Fed to fall behind or let the economy get into an inflationary mindset

📋 Jobless Claims
- Initial claims fell 6,000 to 189,000, a very low level. You'd have to go back 57 years to find a lower figure
- Continuing claims rose 23,000 to 1.718 million

🔑 The Bottom Line: Bonds are taking a breather ahead of tomorrow's jobs report. A weaker number could extend the rally, while a surprise to the upside could pressure rates.

Questions about what this means for you? Reach out anytime! 📲

🏡 Home equity is one of the financial benefits of homeownership, and it can grow over time. Each principal payment helps...
11/04/2026

🏡 Home equity is one of the financial benefits of homeownership, and it can grow over time. Each principal payment helps reduce your loan balance, while rising home values can further increase your equity.

Building equity can support your long-term financial goals and create opportunities for the future. 📈

Have questions about how homeownership could support your financial goals? I’d love to help! Reach out to me to explore your options and learn more.

11/04/2026

☀️ Morning Market Update

Stocks and Mortgage Bonds are both higher so far this morning now that the election results are in.

🗳️ Election Results & Market Reaction
- Democrats won both the House and the Senate. Here is how the market appears to be interpreting the results
- With a Republican President and a Democratic Congress, markets likely expect gridlock, making it harder to pass additional spending
- Oil prices are lower, on the premise that it will be harder to get funding to increase the war effort with Iran
- Democrats also won Governor races in Texas, Ohio and Georgia, all states where a lot of data centers have been built. Some of those candidates ran on slowing or potentially stopping data center construction, and "neocloud" stocks are down 3-7% on the news
- Neocloud selloffs have previously triggered a risk-off, flight to safety trade into Bonds, which appears to be happening again this morning

💼 ADP Employment Report
- ADP showed 86,000 jobs created in October, stronger than the 69,000 expected
- September was revised down slightly, from 90,000 to 86,000
- Education/Health Services added the most jobs at 28,000, followed by Leisure and Hospitality at 19,000
- Professional/Business Services shed 27,000 jobs, the third straight month of losses, likely due to the impact of AI
- Wages for workers staying at the same job rose 4.4% year over year, stable over the last few months. Job switchers saw pay increase 7.6%, up from 7.4% previously

🏡 Cotality Home Price Index
- Home values fell 0.3% in September, and year-over-year growth slowed from 1.8% to 1.7%. Higher rates and some seasonality are having an impact
- Cotality expects rates to stay high and forecasts prices to fall 0.1% in October and rise 0.9% over the year ahead, cut from the 1.6% previously forecast
- If rates move lower, that could support home prices. This report captured most of the peak in rates, and we've already seen rates make a nice move lower from those levels

📋 Mortgage Applications
- Rates were little changed at 7.3%, about 1% higher than the same time last year
- Refinances are down 60% year over year and purchases are down 19%
- Even so, refinances still make up 40% of activity, mostly cash-out for debt consolidation
- ARMs made up 11.4% of transactions, the highest share since September 2025

🔑 The Bottom Line: Expectations of gridlock in Washington, lower oil, and weakness in AI-related stocks are all sending investors toward Bonds this morning, helping Mortgage Bonds move higher.

Questions about what this means for you? Reach out anytime! 📲

11/03/2026

☀️ Morning Market Update

Stocks are higher and Mortgage Bonds are lower so far this morning, following a stronger than expected JOLTS report.

🗳️ Election Day
- Based on prediction markets, the forecast is for possible gridlock in Congress
- That could benefit the Bond market, since it would be harder to pass additional spending, which could mean less debt issuance

🏦 Treasury Refunding Announcement (Tomorrow)
- The Treasury releases its refunding announcement tomorrow, and it's possible Secretary Bessent issues less longer-term debt
- That could help the 10-year and Mortgage Bonds, since there would be less longer-dated supply and more shorter-term debt
- There is also a near record amount of shorts in the Bond market, so a continued move lower in yields could cause short covering, which would further help the rally

💼 JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover)
- Job openings in September rose 333,000 to 7.52 million, much stronger than the 7.1 million expected
- The hiring rate was 3.4%, up one tenth from the previous report
- The quits rate rose from 1.9% to 2.1%, moving off the lowest level since 2014 (excluding Covid). It's still low, showing that workers aren't voluntarily quitting as much because there is less poaching from other companies amid less hiring, but it's an increase from the previous report

🔑 The Bottom Line: JOLTS was stronger than expected and added some pressure to Bonds this morning, but it doesn't often correlate with the more important job creation reports we get with ADP tomorrow and BLS on Friday. Election results and tomorrow's Treasury refunding announcement could also move rates.

Questions about what this means for you? Reach out anytime! 📲

Scariest costume of all, a crystal ball rate predictor 🔮📉
11/02/2026

Scariest costume of all, a crystal ball rate predictor 🔮📉

11/02/2026

☀️ Morning Market Update

Stocks are rebounding this morning after last week's big selloff, especially in the tech sector following earnings. Mortgage Bonds are slightly higher and the 10-year yield is lower, starting to break under a key level of support.

🛢️ Oil & Trade
- Oil prices are moving lower after Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Trump prefers not to use military force and would like to resolve the Iranian war "diplomatically"
- Iranian authorities also signaled that a deal is still possible, although we have heard this story several times before
- President Trump is also proposing a new U.S.-Canada trade deal that could include reviving the Keystone XL pipeline

🏛️ Fed Speak
- Voting Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she favors two more 25bp hikes, though they don't have to come at back-to-back meetings
- Most Fed members view the labor market as solid and are comfortable with the "low hire, low fire" environment we've been in
- The catch: jobs data hasn't been stellar, and if firings pick up, there isn't much hiring to absorb those workers

💼 Jobs Report Preview (Friday)
- Forecasts for both the ADP and BLS reports call for about 65,000 jobs created in October, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%
- We'll also be watching revisions. September came in at just 29,000, well below the 90,000 expected. July was revised to show job losses, and August was taken down sharply and has another revision coming
- If the jobs data is weak again, it may be just what the Bond market needs to keep rallying

📅 Week Ahead
- Tue: JOLTS
- Wed: Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Report
- Thu: Jobless Claims
- Fri: BLS Jobs Report

🔑 The Bottom Line: Easing oil prices and hopes for diplomacy are helping Bonds this morning, but all eyes are on Friday's jobs report, and weak data could extend the rally.

Questions about what this means for you? Reach out anytime! 📲

10/30/2026

☀️ Morning Market Update

Stocks are sharply lower and Mortgage Bonds are continuing higher this morning. Disappointing tech earnings are driving a flight to safety, with investors moving money into Bonds.

💻 Tech Earnings Disappoint
- Amazon missed on both the top and bottom lines, meaning it fell short on revenue and earnings per share. It also reported negative free cash flow for the second quarter in a row, much larger than expected
- Alphabet reported negative free cash flow of $9.1 billion, while the market was expecting positive cash flow of $2.7 billion
- Intel gave extremely weak guidance
- Free cash flow = operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. Negative free cash flow means a company is spending more than it takes in from running its business
- The takeaway: the market is punishing companies it feels are spending too much and don't have spotless earnings

💼 Employment Cost Index
- The ECI, which measures employee costs like wages and benefits, slowed in Q3 from 0.9% to 0.8%
- Wages fell from 0.9% to 0.7%, while benefits eased from 1% to 0.9%
- Slower wage pressure is another positive for Bonds

🏠 Household Supply and Demand
- The latest Q3 household formations data shows formations have fallen due to higher rates, meaning housing demand has dropped
- Owner-occupied household formations fell to 780,000, while one-unit housing completions are at 840,000
- This is the first time demand has fallen below supply, which means home values may not be supported as well, and given the time of year, we may see some modest price softening

🏢 Apartment List Rental Report
- New rents fell 0.3% in October. A decline this time of year is normal, but it was a slower cooldown than in previous years
- Year over year, new rents are up 0.1%, the first positive reading since mid-2023
- The vacancy rate is 7%, still high but down from the 7.3% peak earlier this year
- Time from listing to lease rose from 34 to 36 days, a bit longer than typical for this time of year

🔑 The Bottom Line: Weak tech earnings are sending investors toward the safety of Bonds, and cooling wage pressure adds to the positive tone, helping Mortgage Bonds this morning.

Questions about what this means for you? Reach out anytime! 📲

🏡 Don’t Wait for Rates to Fall to Lower Your Payment!A lower mortgage payment doesn’t always require waiting for rates t...
10/30/2026

🏡 Don’t Wait for Rates to Fall to Lower Your Payment!

A lower mortgage payment doesn’t always require waiting for rates to drop. 💡

💰 A rate buydown can lower your mortgage rate using funds paid upfront, and in some cases the seller may contribute toward the cost.

📊 Your potential savings depend on your loan amount, your rate, and how long you keep the mortgage.

Want to see if a buydown could make sense for you? Send me a message! I’m happy to help you compare the upfront cost with the potential monthly savings. 📲

10/29/2026

☀️ Morning Market Update

Stocks are lower and Mortgage Bonds are rallying this morning, with the Fed meeting now behind us and quarterly inflation data coming in better than expected. There may also be a flight to safety underway after some important earnings reports yesterday.

🤖 AI Earnings Shake Up Markets
- CoreWeave, Nebius and other "neocloud" stocks fell after Microsoft's earnings. Microsoft did very well on almost all fronts, but its capital spending came in about $5 billion below expectations, pointing to infrastructure partners taking longer to deliver data center capacity
- Microsoft is one of the largest customers of CoreWeave and Nebius, so their stocks are sharply lower, and money may be moving into the safety of Treasuries

🏛️ Fed Meeting Breakdown
- The Fed left rates unchanged, as expected, but there were two dissenters — Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, two of the more hawkish members
- Fed Chair Warsh's press conference may have been less hawkish than feared. He acknowledged that financial conditions have tightened somewhat since September, that markets are becoming more discerning in capital allocation, and that AI funding costs were affected by the higher Fed Funds Rate
- Bottom line: he acknowledged some progress. A December hike is still expected based on Fed Futures, but he was noncommittal and said it depends on the data (and we believe stock market performance may matter too)
- Warsh also announced changes for 2027 and 2028: in 2027 the Fed will still meet eight times, but only seven will be policy meetings, with one "strategic" meeting. In 2028 there will be six policy meetings and two strategic ones

📊 Inflation: PCE & GDP
- September PCE rose 0.5% for the month, as expected, and 3.6% year over year, up from 3.4% (it was a hair away from rounding up to 3.7%)
- Core PCE rose 0.3% for the month and 3.1% year over year, both as expected
- The quarterly figures stand out: Q3 PCE inflation rose just 2.1%, down sharply from 5% in Q2 and well below the 3.4% expected
- The savings rate fell from 4% to 3.8%, the lowest level since 2008
- Q3 GDP rose at a 3.4% annualized rate, above the 3.2% expected and up from 2.2% in Q2, driven by AI data center investment and consumer spending — though much of the spending was on healthcare rather than discretionary items

🔑 The Bottom Line: Cooler quarterly inflation, a Fed that sounded a bit less hawkish, and AI-related worries are all sending investors toward Bonds, helping Mortgage Bonds rally this morning.

Questions about what this means for you? Reach out anytime! 📲

10/28/2026

☀️ Morning Market Update

Mortgage Bonds are lower while Stocks are higher this morning, ahead of today's Fed press conference at 2:30pm ET.

🏛️ Fed Day
- The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged, but the statement and Fed Chair Warsh's comments during the press conference could have a strong impact on markets and cause volatility
- There is no new Summary of Economic Projections this meeting, so no updated "Dots Plot" showing where Fed members expect rates to go. The next one comes at the December 9 meeting

🏡 New Home Sales
- New Home Sales slipped 0.6% in September to an annualized rate of 676,000, stronger than the 650,000 expected
- August was revised slightly lower, which makes the monthly decline look smaller. Sales are down 5.3% year over year and about 3% below last year's pace so far this year
- There were 476,000 new homes for sale at the end of September — 8.4 months of supply, down slightly from 8.5 in August
- The median new home price was $400,400, up 3.9% from the prior month but down almost 4% year over year. That's not due to falling prices, but to the mix of homes sold: homes priced $600,000 and up made up 18% of sales (vs. 22% a year ago), while homes priced $300,000–$399,999 jumped to 31% of sales from 23%

📊 PCE Inflation Preview (Thursday)
- Headline PCE is expected to tick up from 3.4% to about 3.6% year over year for September
- Core PCE, the Fed's main focus, is expected to edge up from 3.01% to 3.05%

📋 Mortgage Applications
- Rates fell from 7.40% to 7.30% last week, still 1% higher than a year ago
- Purchase volume rose 4% for the week but is down 18% year over year
- Refinances rose 3% for the week and are down 61% year over year, making up 39% of activity, mostly cash-out

🔑 The Bottom Line: Today's Fed decision and press conference are the main event. Inflation data later this week will also be closely watched.

Questions about what this means for you? Reach out anytime! 📲

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4535 Missouri Flat Road Ste. 2E
Placerville, CA
95667

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