AWM Capital

06/04/2026

When markets throw curveballs everyone wonders, “How’s this going to impact my portfolio? The economy? My future?”

The lesson, every single time: “Diversification is the best way to protect against any and all of that uncertainty.”

Even on the roughest days, a diversified portfolio is built to weather the storm better than anything else. It’s not about perfect defense, it’s about positioning your family to play through, season after season.

That’s how 100-year families steward wealth—not chasing every prediction, but relying on a disciplined game plan that stands the test of time.

🎧 https://www.athletefamilyoffice.com/resource/predictions-are-for-fun-not-for-portfolios-awm-insights-254

06/03/2026

Most people get excited about SpaceX's potential $28.5 trillion valuation. "I'm willing to pay whatever to get in at $2 if it's gonna be worth $28."

But that's not investing—it's speculation.

The data tells a different story: most IPOs trade lower six months after their debut. SpaceX is asking for a 100x revenue multiple in a market where the S&P 500 trades at 3.7x.

The Elon narrative is powerful. Tesla doesn't trade on normal valuations either. But buying into hype cycles rarely works out—even when the company does well, your timing determines everything.

Here's the 100-year family approach: avoid the noise. Diversification protects against uncertainty better than any prediction ever could.

Catch the full conversation: https://www.athletefamilyoffice.com/resource/predictions-are-for-fun-not-for-portfolios-awm-insights-254

06/02/2026

Your protective reserve should be made up of short-term fixed income—assets you can count on when things get rough. This isn’t the pool to bet on or stretch for extra yield.

Risk is rewarded in public and private equities, not in your reserves. Over the last five years, taking more risk in bonds often led to little or no return.

Guard your safety pool. Let discipline call the plays.

🎧 Tune into the latest AWM insights for more: https://www.athletefamilyoffice.com/resource/predictions-are-for-fun-not-for-portfolios-awm-insights-254

06/01/2026

Markets are voting machines in the short term, weighing machines in the long term. The problem? You never know when that measurement changes.

Take SpaceX. The hype is real. But here's the financial physics: they're trading at 100X revenue. For context, the S&P 500 trades at 3.7X. Even Tesla, with all the Elon effect, has seen 80% drops over two-year stretches.

Or oil prices. With Middle East tensions and infrastructure hits, we're looking at elevated energy costs. Markets are pricing a 50/50 shot at crude over $105 by June. But here's what matters: if you're globally diversified, you already own energy companies benefiting from this rally, and those gains offset what you're paying at the pump.

The Federal Reserve? With inflation ticking up from energy markets, rate cuts look unlikely. We're actually favoring an increase before year-end.

Here's the truth: having an opinion is fine. We have plenty internally. But acting on that opinion? That's where discipline separates the 100-year family from the gambler 🎲

What prediction market are you watching right now?

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This week Justin and Mena tackle the hottest market headlines, from SpaceX's eye-popping valuation to the effects of oil prices and inflation on investor portfolios. Backed by real data and hard-won experience, they break down the numbers, challenge the market hype, and share why disciplined decisio...

05/29/2026

Every season brings market predictions—will SpaceX soar past its IPO price? Will oil prices run up the scoreboard?

On this week's AWM Insights episode, Justin Dyer, CFA and Mena Hanna take these headline plays and break down how the 100-Year Family should actually approach the game.

SpaceX’s potential $28.5 trillion valuation is headline fuel, driven by the power of the narrative and the Elon power. But the data says otherwise: IPOs, more often than not, trade below their offering price six months out. Oil and Fed rates make for colorful commentary, yet for a team built on diversification, those swings are just part of the full-field strategy.

Here’s the disciplined game plan:
• Hold your opinions—but let discipline and evidence set the lineup
• Diversification is your defensive line, absorbing shocks and gaps
• Wealth built for generations plays every quarter, not just for the highlight reel

🎧 Tune in: https://www.athletefamilyoffice.com/resource/predictions-are-for-fun-not-for-portfolios-awm-insights-254

05/28/2026

Chasing IPOs is playing in the casino—not investing for legacies.

Pre-IPO, you’re locked up watching the early pop from the sidelines. When your shares finally unlock, prices have often fallen—sometimes below where you started. Buy in on day one, and you’re left trying to time the market—an almost impossible play.

All the while, short-term capital gains taxes take a big bite out of any quick wins.

Wealth isn’t built from the gambler’s seat. It’s built with discipline, a proven playbook, and the patience to win for generations.

Tune for the full discussion: https://www.athletefamilyoffice.com/resource/the-ipo-trap-why-chasing-the-pop-is-just-gambling-in-disguise-awm-insights-253

05/28/2026

Investing at the seed, pre-seed, or Series A stage is like buying tickets to an event with a capacity of 100 versus 100,000. Getting in early is harder but that’s where the higher expected returns live.

Plenty of companies won’t cross the finish line, but the winners more than make up for the losses. This is how you build a playbook for the 100-year family: aiming for disciplined, early access instead of chasing the public market hype.

Catch the full conversation: https://www.athletefamilyoffice.com/resource/the-ipo-trap-why-chasing-the-pop-is-just-gambling-in-disguise-awm-insights-253

05/27/2026

Most investors chasing IPO hype miss the real edge. Decades of market data show post-IPO buyers lag by ~2% in year one. The overlooked window between the headlines and index inclusion is where disciplined investors win.

Own your game. Build a legacy.

🎧 https://www.athletefamilyoffice.com/resource/the-ipo-trap-why-chasing-the-pop-is-just-gambling-in-disguise-awm-insights-253

05/26/2026

Investing in IPOs feels a lot like being drawn to the roar of a playoff crowd. The headlines, the day-one “pop”—it all pulls you in. But chasing the initial spike is betting, not building.

History shows the game rarely plays out in the investor’s favor. You’re often locked up for months, only to see those green arrows turn red. Taxes cut deeper, timing is impossible, and sustained wins just don’t show up on the scoreboard. That’s the gambler’s seat.

At AWM, we coach our families to play a different game—one for the long haul:
• Build your roster early: True edge comes from investing at the earliest stages, not just before the IPO spotlight
• Be disciplined in the public markets: Consistent, systematic exposure beats timing the “pop” every time
• Integrate every element: Wealth, tax, estate, and legacy—aligned around a 100-Year Family mindset

Building a flourishing family legacy takes a playbook built for seasons, not single games.

🎧 Tune into the latest AWM Insights for more: https://www.athletefamilyoffice.com/resource/the-ipo-trap-why-chasing-the-pop-is-just-gambling-in-disguise-awm-insights-253

📱 And text us your investment questions: 626-862-0355

In this episode of AWM Insights, Chief Investment Officer Justin Dyer and Portfolio Manager Mena Hanna take a close look at IPOs, breaking down what an initial public offering truly means and how it fits—or fails to fit—into a disciplined, generational wealth strategy. They dig into headline-mak...

05/25/2026

Chasing IPOs—like SpaceX, Figma, or Facebook—puts you on the wrong side of the odds.

Here’s what seasoned families know:
• Pre-IPO buyers are generally locked up for six months, watching big “pops” evaporate before they can play—Figma soared from $33 to $140 then dropped to $25 when selling finally opened.
• Facebook and Uber both saw early surges disappear, ending 30% down at the six-month mark.
• Public buyers must time their entry like guessing a fastball, more often swinging and missing.
• All that action usually triggers short-term capital gains, facing the highest tax bracket.

Real legacies aren’t built on gambling. The casino always wins. We'd rather you take the casino's seat—investing early in private markets or strategically in public ones, not the gambler's.

🎧 Join Justin Dyer, CFA & Mena Hanna, CFA, CAIA on the latest AWM Insights: https://www.athletefamilyoffice.com/resource/the-ipo-trap-why-chasing-the-pop-is-just-gambling-in-disguise-awm-insights-253