10/13/2026
Higher 10-year Treasury yields did something useful: they attracted buyers. Stocks are softer this morning and mortgage bonds are firmer, and the 10-year Treasury is back under 5.29%, its recent ceiling. We see investors stepping in when yields got rich enough, with a near-term range of roughly 5.16% to 5.29%.
Housing got a small lift too. September existing-home sales rose 1.5% to a 3.99 million pace, a bit better than expected. Inventory is up about 5% from a year ago, and the median price is $417,500, still up 1.3% year over year. First-time buyers were 31% of sales.
Soft spots elsewhere: University of Michigan consumer confidence fell to 46.3, near record lows, and Atlanta Fed wage growth cooled to 3.9%. Weekly ADP hiring is running near 100,000 jobs a month. That's steady, not a boom, and steady hiring can keep rates from falling fast.
Tomorrow's CPI inflation report is the gate. Markets expect a firm headline and a calmer core reading. The stance today is Floating.
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John Blanks | Licensed Mortgage Broker AZ, CA, CO, FL, OR | NMLS 179617 | Phoenix Mortgage Brokers