Optimist Capital LLC

01/28/2026

Our Principal in MarketWatch this morning

From diversifying your portfolio to investing in precious metals, these industry experts weigh in.

12/08/2025

Weekly Optimist 12/08/2025
https://optimistcap.com/attempts-to-assault-new-hghs-expected/

TLDR: THE BOTTOM LINE
Large amounts of global capital searching for a home continue to push equity prices toward new all-time highs. Without broad, mature negative divergences appearing across multiple supply-and-demand indicators, investors should not be surprised to see renewed attempts at setting additional record highs.

Optimist Capital offers fiduciary wealth management and investment advice, led by Alexander Cooke, for diverse financial needs.

11/19/2025

We’re proud to highlight Ivan Rosa in this month’s Member Spotlight!

Ivan is a U.S. Marine Corps veteran, business leader, and long-time Palm Beach North Chamber of Commerce Ambassador who serves as Chair of our Palm Beach North Veterans Business Coalition. A graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy, he now represents Optimist Capital LLC, guiding clients in building and protecting their long-term success.

His leadership, mentorship, and dedication to service continue to make a lasting impact on the Palm Beach North community.

11/10/2025

Weekly Optimist 11/10/2025
https://optimistcap.com/tired-bull-or-room-to-run/




TLDR: THE BOTTOM LINE

The recent decline in the stock market has been orderly, marked by only modest selling pressure. The absence of a “BIG CHILL” warning, combined with this limited selling activity, suggests that the great bull market is not yet over—contrary to what one prominent bear has asserted.

However, if the current weakness persists and intensifies to the point that the TATY indicator falls into the caution zone near the 115–125 range—the first step toward triggering a new “BIG CHILL” warning—the odds could begin to tilt in favor of a more sustained decline, offering the bears reason for renewed optimism.

For now, unless internal measures of selling pressure increase significantly, the probabilities continue to favor further attempts at new all-time highs.

Optimist Capital offers fiduciary wealth management and investment advice, led by Alexander Cooke, for diverse financial needs.

10/15/2025

Optimist Capital Quarterly Update
4th QTR 2025
https://optimistcap.com/4qtr2025/

Optimist Capital offers fiduciary wealth management and investment advice, led by Alexander Cooke, for diverse financial needs.

10/06/2025

Weekly Optimist 10/06/2025
https://optimistcap.com/beliefs-vs-facts/




TLDR: THE BOTTOM LINE

The bears continue to present an accurate, fact-based case grounded in historically excessive bullish sentiment, extreme valuations, and other analytical measures—all pointing toward the eventual onset of a major bear market to balance the preceding bull run in both magnitude and duration.

However, facts remain no match for the bulls’ convictions. Their belief continues to propel the market higher, as each new all-time high reinforces confidence that even greater highs lie ahead. This self-reinforcing, virtuous cycle is likely to persist until the balance of supply and demand—tracked by the Lowry Research system—shifts meaningfully, or until a new “BIG CHILL” warning appears in our proprietary indicators.

While seasonal factors may introduce short-term volatility, the prevailing odds still favor continued attempts to reach new record highs. That said, at these nosebleed valuations, conditions could change swiftly and dramatically.

Optimist Capital offers fiduciary wealth management and investment advice, led by Alexander Cooke, for diverse financial needs.

10/02/2025

Weekly Optimist 10/01/2025
https://optimistcap.com/pause-to-refresh-demand-or-is-it-more-serious/

TLDR: This past week’s late rally appears to be a bounce in a developing consolidation. If this bout of weakness is to be more than just a pause which refreshes, then the dashed blue and dashed red lines shown in Screenshot-284 must be breached before the S&P-500 closes above 6700, a new all-time high. A close above 6700 would be a signal that enough residual demand remains to extend the great bull market.

Optimist Capital offers fiduciary wealth management and investment advice, led by Alexander Cooke, for diverse financial needs.

07/24/2025

Founder and Principal Alexander Cooke quoted in Benzinga a few times about defense investments in the article below

The benchmark S&P Aerospace & Defense Select Industry Index’s year-to-date return for 2025 is reported as 24.3%. Even more astonishing is that the index has basically been flat (down 2%) over the past month.

07/10/2025

https://optimistcap.com/conflict-markets/
Conflict & Markets
TLDR: Historically, war has often buoyed investment markets, particularly in sectors like technology and defense. But that growth comes at a cost: heightened risk to the everyday freedoms and comforts we often take for granted. I grew up in a time when you could meet friends and family right at the gate of a plane. My children—born after 2000—will never know that experience. They live in a different world, shaped by security concerns and the ripple effects of conflict.

06/26/2025

Economic Advantage, quarterly update
https://optimistcap.com/economic-advantage/
TLDR: our comparative advantage lies in intelligence, education, research, and innovation. Over the last 30+ years, many of the world’s most impactful ideas and technologies were born here in the U.S. While we may outsource production, we own the innovation and intellectual capital. Trying to reverse this dynamic would not push us forward—it would set us back, forcing us to relive mistakes we should have already learned from and moved beyond.

Optimist Capital offers fiduciary wealth management and investment advice, led by Alexander Cooke, for diverse financial needs.

06/23/2025

THE Weekly Optimist 6/23/2025
https://optimistcap.com/a-tease-masquerading-as-a-layup/

Bottom Line:
The stock market continues to prove itself a master of disguise, with the S&P 500 teasing an ending diagonal triangle formation—until last week, when the pattern began to break down and morph into something yet to be identified. While the formation still holds in the NASDAQ, the S&P 500’s failure suggests the NASDAQ may follow suit. This aligns with the broader trend in recent years, where triangles and diagonals often fail to complete.

Optimist Capital offers fiduciary wealth management and investment advice, led by Alexander Cooke, for diverse financial needs.

06/20/2025

Weekly Optimist 6/15/2025
https://optimistcap.com/summer-swoon/

Optimist Capital offers fiduciary wealth management and investment advice, led by Alexander Cooke, for diverse financial needs.