CoinResearch

09/03/2026

Bitcoin just had its best August since 2017. September is already testing the rally.

Bitcoin gained roughly 25% in August, its strongest monthly performance since November 2024 and its best August since 2017. But as September begins, the macro backdrop is becoming significantly less friendly.

The key signals:
• 📈 BTC: +25% in August
• 📉 September: Bitcoin's worst-performing month on average since 2013, with an average decline of ~3%
• 🟢 Only 5 of 13 Septembers since 2013 produced positive returns
• 📊 U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.784%
• 💵 Markets priced a 66% probability of a 25 bps Fed hike on September 16
• 🛢️ WTI crude climbed toward $88–$90 per barrel
• 💰 Bitcoin ETFs recorded $237M in net outflows on Tuesday, while Ethereum ETFs still posted $8.6M of inflows

The setup is now a battle between strong crypto-specific liquidity and tightening macro conditions.

ETF inflows, digital-asset treasury demand, and growing on-chain activity remain important tailwinds. But higher bond yields, elevated oil prices, inflation concerns, and renewed expectations for Fed tightening can pressure liquidity across risk assets.

Seasonality adds another layer, but it shouldn't be treated as destiny. Bitcoin has actually finished each of the last three Septembers higher.

The real question for September isn't whether “Rektember” returns. It's whether Bitcoin can absorb a tougher macro environment without giving back August's gains.

September 16 could be the key macro checkpoint.

09/02/2026

Japan’s rate shock could become crypto’s next liquidity test.

Japan’s bond market is flashing a signal that extends far beyond Tokyo. Rising Japanese yields are making yen-funded leverage more expensive, raising the risk of a carry-trade unwind across global markets.

The key signals:
• 🇯🇵 Japan 10-year yield reached 3% — the first time since 1996
• 📈 Japan 30-year yield approached 4.205%, near its all-time high
• 📊 Japan’s 2-year yield reached a 31-year high
• 💴 USD/JPY traded near 159.75, close to the 160 level associated with intervention risk
• 💰 BIS data puts yen loans to non-banks outside Japan near $250B, with cross-border yen claims around $500B
• 📉 During the August 2024 carry-trade unwind, Bitcoin and Ethereum fell as much as 20% amid forced liquidations

The mechanism is straightforward.

For years, cheap yen funding supported leveraged positions across equities, bonds, and crypto. As Japanese rates rise, that funding becomes more expensive. If the yen strengthens rapidly, traders may be forced to unwind positions, creating another wave of cross-asset deleveraging.

That does not mean another 2024-style crypto crash is inevitable. The key variable is the speed of the yen’s move and how much leverage is sitting inside the trade.

The next major catalyst comes on September 18, when the Bank of Japan is scheduled to make its policy decision. Markets are currently pricing a 25-basis-point move to 1.25%, but Governor Ueda’s guidance on what comes next may matter more for crypto liquidity.

Japan’s rates may be domestic. The liquidity consequences are global.

09/02/2026

Ethereum's rally is approaching a critical test.

ETH has recovered roughly 70% from its 2026 lows, but the rebound is now running into a major long-term resistance level that previously preceded a deeper correction.

The key levels to watch:
➡️ $2,554: 100-week EMA and major resistance
➡️ $2,500–$2,550: current rejection zone
➡️ $2,113: 20-week EMA and key downside trigger
➡️ $1,500–$1,550: potential deeper correction target
➡️ $1,760: liquidation zone containing roughly $3.79B in leveraged longs
➡️ $1,840: major liquidation cluster with about $180.33M in longs at risk

The setup is particularly interesting because Ethereum's current recovery resembles its 2019–2020 structure, when repeated failures around the 100-week EMA eventually preceded another major selloff.

That doesn't mean history must repeat. ETH's weekly RSI remains constructive near 59, and a decisive close above the 100-week EMA would weaken the bearish setup and support further recovery.

But the risk-reward picture changes if ETH fails to reclaim the resistance zone.

A 40% correction is a downside scenario, not a prediction. The immediate question is whether Ethereum can turn $2,500–$2,550 from resistance into support.

08/31/2026

Crypto's rally is showing signs of becoming more selective.

Bitcoin held around $77.7K last week, but other parts of the market moved differently.

Here are the key numbers:
🔹 BTC: $77,658, -0.1% for the week
🔹 ETH: $2,416, -1.9%
🔹 BTC ETFs: +$924.5M in weekly inflows
🔹 ETH ETFs: +$815.7M in weekly inflows
🔹 SOL: +7.1%
🔹 BTC briefly crossed $80K

Ethereum ETFs saw strong inflows, but ETH still ended the week lower. Capital is entering the market, but it isn't moving evenly across assets.

Bitcoin also faces an important test.

CoinResearch AI's AI model gives BTC a 76% probability of reaching $81,367 over the next 7 days. The bullish setup depends on BTC reclaiming and holding the $77.8K to $78.2K range.

This week's US jobs data could be important for the next move.
For now, the crypto market remains bullish, but leadership is becoming more selective.

🔗https://coinresearch.medium.com/coinresearch-intelligence-weekly-42-4d92e86773af

The Rally Paused. The Market Split. | Week Ending August 30, 2026

08/27/2026

Crypto's attention economy just reached another extreme.

Following news of Dolly Parton's death, traders rushed to create memecoins using variations of her name including Dolly, DollyParton, and RIP Dolly Parton.

The tokens appeared on platforms including Pump.fun and Robinhood Chain, with some attracting speculative capital almost immediately.

The numbers show how quickly the cycle can move:
🔎 The Dolly token reached nearly $480K market cap within its first few hours
🔎 It then fell below $180K
🔎 Multiple tokens reportedly experienced classic rug pulls, with insiders selling near the peak
🔎 The launches followed a broader pattern of memecoins using viral events and public figures to attract short-term liquidity

The important story isn't Dolly Parton herself. It's what these launches reveal about the current memecoin market.

Memecoins have increasingly become an attention market, where speed, virality, and narrative can matter more than fundamentals. Platforms such as Pump.fun have made token creation inexpensive and accessible, allowing speculative markets to form almost instantly.

But when attention disappears, liquidity can disappear just as quickly.

The lesson for the market is simple: a rapidly rising market cap doesn't necessarily represent durable value.

08/26/2026

Bitcoin is rallying. The rest of crypto is struggling to keep up.

Bitcoin gained roughly 24% over the past week, reaching around $79,000 and posting its strongest weekly run since 2023.

The divergence is becoming clear:
🟠 Bitcoin dominance climbed to around 61%, showing capital remains concentrated in BTC
🟠 Ethereum gained roughly 30%, but Total3 (the market excluding BTC and ETH) fell over the week
🟠 The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index sits at 46, well below the 75 threshold for an actual altcoin season
🟠 More than $4B in crypto shorts were reportedly liquidated during the rally
🟠 A sustained BTC break above $80K could open a path toward $82K–$87K, while $75K–$76K remains a key pullback zone

The current rally is therefore less about a broad-based altcoin rotation and more about Bitcoin reclaiming market leadership.

The move has been supported by weaker dollar dynamics, expectations around U.S. Treasury buybacks, a more favorable regulatory backdrop, and a significant short squeeze.

A strong Bitcoin rally does not automatically mean an altseason is underway. For that to happen, capital needs to broaden beyond the largest assets and remain there.

For now, the market is voting for Bitcoin first.

08/24/2026

The Bid Came Back. Now Don’t Chase It.

Crypto just had a major reversal in positioning. Bitcoin gained 23.6% last week while Ethereum jumped 31.4%, pushing total crypto market capitalization to roughly $2.61T.

The move was backed by real capital, not just sentiment:
🟣 $1.92B flowed into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs across five consecutive positive sessions
🟣 $692.6M flowed into spot Ethereum ETFs
🟣 BTC + ETH ETFs absorbed roughly $2.61B combined
🟣 Fear & Greed flipped from 31 — Fear to 73 — Greed in just one week
🟣 ETH outperformed BTC, while capital remained concentrated in large, liquid assets

The harder question is whether buyers will continue supporting prices after such a vertical repricing.

CoinResearch's current setups reflect that caution: BTC remains a conditional long only after a confirmed $75,800–$76,500 support response, while ETH and HYPE remain no-chase setups. INJ is similarly conditional on a failed $5.45–$5.55 retest.

The market has already rewarded those who bought the breakout.

The next edge may come from waiting for the breakout to prove it can survive the retest.

08/21/2026

Bitcoin's next target may be closer than the market thinks.

Prediction markets are now pricing a 59% chance of Bitcoin touching $80,000 before the end of August, a sharp increase in the probability over the past few weeks.

The shift comes as Bitcoin's recent rebound has strengthened short-term momentum, but the prediction market is still far less confident about a return to six figures.

The current setup:
🔵 59% probability: BTC reaches $80K this month
🔵 Prediction-market odds have risen sharply as BTC recovered
🔵 Traders remain much less convinced about a move back toward $100K
🔵 The market is pricing continued upside but not a full-blown breakout yet

Prediction markets don't predict the future. They aggregate the price at which traders are willing to take a position on a specific outcome.

The bigger question is whether Bitcoin can turn this short-term momentum into sustained demand or whether $80K becomes another resistance level.

The market is increasingly betting on the rebound. Now price action has to prove it.

08/17/2026

CoinResearch Intelligence Weekly #40 is live.

Crypto markets continue to navigate a mix of macro uncertainty, institutional flows, and shifting on-chain momentum.

This week's report breaks down the signals that matter most from Bitcoin and Ethereum structure to emerging altcoin opportunities, ecosystem developments, and AI-driven market forecasts.

Inside this edition:
🔵 Weekly crypto market recap
🔵 Key macro and institutional developments
🔵 Bitcoin & Ethereum outlook
🔵 AI-powered predictive analytics and trade confluence
🔵 Token launches and ecosystem radar
🔵 Strategic outlook and key levels to watch

The market rarely moves on a single signal. The strongest setups emerge when price structure, capital flows, sentiment, and fundamentals begin pointing in the same direction.

🔗https://coinresearch.medium.com/coinresearch-intelligence-weekly-40-0e2c1f57a6de

Good News, No Bid. | Week Ending August 16, 2026

08/14/2026

200,000 RWA holders. So why did 82% of the capital leave?

Plume is becoming one of the largest RWA ecosystems by user count, but the headline numbers reveal a deeper question: is RWA adoption actually translating into sticky capital?

The divergence is hard to ignore:
🔹 200,000+ RWA holders signals strong user adoption
🔹 Yet approximately 82% of capital has left, raising questions about capital retention
🔹 Holder growth can look impressive even when the underlying economic activity remains relatively small
🔹 The broader RWA market is also showing a similar split between rising participation and softer value metrics

The next phase of RWA growth may depend less on acquiring holders and more on retaining capital.

🔗https://coinresearch.medium.com/plume-has-200-000-rwa-holders-why-did-82-of-the-capital-leave-9c2e67df1e8c

Plume built one of crypto’s widest real-world asset distribution networks. Then most of the reported capital disappeared.